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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Outside of Skubal and Sandy, every other 3-x carries some concern:

• McClanahan gets a TEX team that hits lefties really well and hasn’t reached 6 IP in any of his L6
• Henderson gets the blazing hot Cubs; Gausman gets the hot-hitting Brewers — I’m sure this’ll be 2-1 now, lol
• Bennett was uninspiring for 6 straight (5.29 ERA/1.38 WHIP) until his recent gem at NYY
• Soriano gets a nice matchup, but has just a 1.38 WHIP with TOR
• Brown was great last time out (6.7 IP/1 ER/10 Ks) but it was only his 2nd start of 0-1 BB all yr (13% BB)

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Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Guardians

• Slade Cecconi seems to be building up as a reliever during his rehab assignment.

RHP Slade Cecconi
Injury: Right arm fatigue
IL date: Aug. 7 (15-day IL)
Expected return: September
Status: Set for second rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Aug. 30. Threw 26 pitches over one scoreless inning in first outing on Aug. 25, followed by 10 pitches in bullpen.

Both of his appearances are out of the bullpen, but he has thrown 3.2 IP. Multi-inning reliever in the making. Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks for coming out! If you missed it, please feel free to drop a comment with your question and I’ll get to it when I can. You can also leave questions in my daily SP charts in you have an inquiry on a non-chat day.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll answer questions about guys in the comments, plus I have my chat later this afternoon.

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Starting the month off with a robbery!

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There is no such thing as the perfect fantasy draft. Even national contest winners in fields of 3,000 teams will have drafted several busts or players who haven’t earned their value. We can still win our leagues despite making numerous mistakes in the draft. In fact, leagues will be won this year by teams who may have even drafted two busts in the first two rounds — the 2026 top 24 has been historically bad. A drafter could have started with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but could have a monster lead on second place if they drafted Dillon Dingler, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler and FAAB’d Jacob Latz, Parker Messick, Liam Hicks and Kody Clemens.

Though in-season free-agent pickups will not always save us, take a look at my worst of four NFBC Online Championship (OC) drafts, a 12-team national contest:

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One way to identify potential pitch mix changes is to compare monthly fastball (four-seamer and sinker) usage splits to season-long averages. That helps identify which pitchers have been increasing or decreasing their fastball usage, typically in favor of other offerings.

The chart below shows the pitchers who averaged a lower fastball usage in July and August compared to their season-long average by 5 or more percentage points.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

About Last Night: a few notes about some Monday SPs

• What the hell was that, Kyle Harrison?! Yeah, CHC is #1 in wOBA vL so there were no guarantees, but I didn’t think he’d hit a full meltdown like that.
• George Kirby is a home-0nly starter the rest of the way… if that, tbh. We can’t keep banging our heads against the wall with him.
• A couple of HRs, including a 3-run shot, tanked Jackson Jobe’s outing and now through 5 starts, the 2 Duds have easily outweighed the two good ones and one decent one. This is a perfect microcosm for why I’m so cautious with TJ returners. See another JJ – Jared Jones – for a larger sample of TJ returner inconsistency. I still had Jobe as a 3-x, so I’m not pounding my chest here, more excoriating myself for not following my normal skepticism of this player class.
• deGrom maintained his 1 up, 1 down pattern, dominating ATH… can he break the streak and hold up v. TBR this weekend?

Tuesday’s Starters

• Luzardo had 4 Duds through his first 8 starts but allowed 4 ER in the other 4 starts combined so while frustrating, the poor starts weren’t really actionable and those who just kept him locked in the rotation have been rewarded handsomely: 2.12 ERA/1.02 WHIP/23% K-BB in 119.3 (19 starts) since the last of those Duds.
• I still think Melton has the stuff to be a legitimate ace as he develops but the Ks were back down again in August after a surge in July, giving him more of a Sandy Alcantara feel right now which is still great but short of a true fantasy ace.
• Remember when I floated the idea of Gav Williams dropping a 20-K game at LAA last week? That was cute… instead, he had his worst start of the year as he failed to finish 2 innings. (1.3 IP/5 ER)
• I really thought we’d see the other shoe drop with E-Rod as he had a 2.29 ERA/4.77 SIERA split in the first half and it seemed like the 88% LOB and .247 BABIP were ripe for regression. The regression has in fact come, with a 73% and .306 in the 2H, respectively, but his 0.95 HR9 is all the way down to 0.38 (6th best in 2H) and has masked a lot of the impact of that regression.
• PIT has slammed righties on the year (2nd in wOBA), but they’re just 28th in the 2H so I’m no longer running from them as much with non-ace righties. That doesn’t matter as much today as we’d be starting Webb even if they were still a top 5 offense against ’em, but just wanted to note that as we move through the final month. That would include guys like Landen Roupp, Blade Tidwell, and Walbert Ureña who draw PIT this week.
• I won’t blame anyone for skipping Bradish in Coors especially on the heels on a pair of rough outings (at STL, v. NYY). I don’t want to be overly influenced by Monday’s 2-1 game, either. A low scoring game one night doesn’t mean it can’t be 10-9 in the 4th inning the next in that park!
• I’m nervous to jump in on GrayRod, but he’s been pretty good lately with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L6 (32.7 IP). He has a couple meh 4 IP starts in the mix, but the other 4 starts have been really good, including a pair of 7 IP gems. NYY’s modest offense helps, too. Walby cooked ’em on Monday night!
• It might be too hard to get away from Woo in 15s, but as I mentioned with Kirby, he probably needs to be a home-only starter at this juncture: 2.63 ERA/0.79 WHIP at home | 5.96 ERA/1.38 WHIP on the road.
• Learned my lesson from Harrison, let’s avoid these Cubs right now.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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Induced vertical break (IVB) is a measure of how much vertical movement or ride a fastball has. It can be an important factor in determining the shape of a pitcher’s fastball, and some pitchers are much more reliant on it than others. It can be the difference between six to seven innings and getting pulled after four and a third. As we get to the final weeks of the season, movement and ride on a pitcher’s fastball can begin to degrade after the wear and tear of the season. This piece will look at what kind of pitchers are reliant on IVB for success, which pitchers have been most impacted by the wear and tear of the season, and who is still able to maintain vertical movement in the final stages of the season. Which pitchers’ four-seams actually depend on IVB, and where is that IVB heading right now?

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