About three weeks ago, I was picking up my youngest kid from school and as she was telling me about her day, she mentioned she fell from the playground and landed on her wrist. This was not an uncommon occurrence as she has her mother’s balance and father’s spatial awareness. For example, a few days before, she had twisted her ankle chasing her friend around that same playground and was hobbling around for a couple of days before she was back to normal. When we got home, I took a look at her wrist and it was a tiny bit swollen, but she was able to rotate her hand, make a fist, and adding pressure to it didn’t cause any pain, so I was pretty confident it was just a minor sprain. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Alright, we have a ton of 3-x’ers today and they’re definitely not created equally so I want to break that group down in a bit more detail.
Easy studs: Fried, Luzardo, McLean, Cease, Sale, Miz, and Ray – the ones you don’t need detail on to know they’re starts
New 3s: I can’t ignore Hancock’s 1.5 HR9 and 93% LOB rates but there is a foundation to work with here (29% K, 4% BB, 12% SwStr – all far and away career bests) so we’re riding the the train; Detmers has brought his RP skills to his SP role wholesale with an equal 21% K-BB, though constructed more soundly trading 4 pts of K% for -4 of BB%. The 6% HR/FB will regress but these skills will soften the blow and he’s a rotation staple right now; Messick-Bubic-Burke is a rising AL Central trio who closed strong last yr and have rolled the success over into 2026 so far making them all easy starts right now; Burke might be a little fringier in 10s, but Messick/Bubic are all systems go
Sketchy 3s: Prielipp needs more than 3 starts to join his AL Central brethren but the early returns are strong; Montero’s .245 BABIP and 0.8 HR9 are helping squeeze a 3.48 ERA out of these skills (14% K-BB) and I’m open to running him at KCR; regression is coming for Griffin, particularly his .220 BABIP and 84% LOB, but I willing to bet he can stave it off another start with a trip to MIA; I’m not moving off Dollander for a rough one v. ATL and he’s catching PHI hitting even worse than their full-season line (hopefully he gets an opener again!); Sheehan gets that tough ATL lineup now and while the 21% K-BB is excellent, the 1.7 HR9 looms large against the MLB HR leader against righties… one silver lining is being on LAD gives him a chance to struggle a bit but still net the W as long as he goes 5 IP; 14 ER in 5.3 IP is going to stain Nelson’s ERA for a whiiiile but he rebounded at CHC and NYM hasn’t given us any reason to avoid them with streamers; Mlodzinski’s 18% K-BB is 10th best on the board today but I just don’t see how a 9% SwStr can sustain that 26% K rate and yet we’re obviously not turning down this trip to SFG; Early hasn’t quite lived up to expectations despite the decent ERA (3.79), so it’s time to show something in this next 3-start run (TBR, PHI, at KCR) or else the ATL might need to be skipped
I’m ready to get hurt by Canning again! I will say that we need to be a little tighter with streaming against STL as they sit 10th vR on the year and they’re riding high at 1st over the L2 wks
It’s Lodolo’s season debut so of course do what you will with first starts off the IL; his rehab did go very well with a 34% K-BB in 12 IP so there has at least been some ramp up
If you want to run McGreevy in a 10, it’s not crazy at SDP but this is pure run-hot; all the ERA indicators are north of 4.00 and his xERA is at 5.77!!
Holding Bradish and Rocker in 15s comes down to the fact that there probably just isn’t anyone better on the wire but they surely haven’t done anything to earn the roster spot
Snelling is a premium prospect making his MLB debut on Friday! Paddack was DFA’d so if this goes well, he’s going to stay in the rotation
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Lugo bounced back from his 7 ER nightmare v. LAA. Duds are just part of his game. He had 5 in his big 2024 season and his 14 since 2024 are tied for 4th-most.
I’m not sitting King or anything, but I want to point out that STL has been sneaky strong. They’re sitting 9th vR on the season and up at 3rd in the last 2 weeks. It gives me pause on someone like Walker Buehler over the weekend and could slow me down some Griffin Canning, though I’ve always had a soft spot for him.
I think Painter’s better than his .370 BABIP, especially with a flyball lean; ATH is tough enough to still play it safe in the shallowest formats, but he’s viable across the board.
Where are the Kellerheads from the chat? Your boy better not let me down here! After inconsistent control in his first four starts (0, 4, 1, 4 BB), he has dialed in with just 3 in his last three starts combined (19 IP). Often a Keller skeptic, I’m down to run the hot hand here as his 2.84 ERA/0.84 WHIP over the L3 comes with a 19% K-BB and 114 LOC+. He wins with command and control which does lead to more volatility with the ball in play more often and ARI is up to 12th vR over the last 2 weeks, though Skenes and Co. shut them out tonight (I’m typing this with just 1 out in the 9th… will I jinx the Pirates?).
Griffin Jax is opening and he’s still unlikely to deliver a fantasy-relevant inning total, but they are stretching him out with a season-high 45 pitches last time out. I don’t know if this caps around 3+ innings, but if they can get him consistently in the 3-5 range, maybe he can move into the follower role. Scholtens, meanwhile, isn’t a bad Win chase, having won 3 of his last 4. All of the wins were follows, though he did go 5.7 IP in the start so it wasn’t volume that kept him from winning that one.
Some of the 1-x’s have fringe 12-start viability but I’m not eager to use them there.
Whenever we start trusting Irvin, he drops 4 BB on our heads… but that’s why he’s a #4. That’s just a trait of #4s and why they live in the streaming world. MIN is 7th in K% vR so maybe we spike one of his biggies (games of 7 and 9 Ks this yr).
I’m keeping tabs on Scott, but let’s be careful about running him in Coors. COL has found their groove at home, though perhaps the snowyyy weather this week will slow them down.
Povich and Liberatore are fringe streamers for sure. Povich gets a sputtering MIA offense in their HR-suppressing park (88 HR factor is 6th lowest) while Liberatore gets a slightly better offense in a park that suppresses everything but homers (97 overall factor is 25th, but 108 HR is 9th highest).
Even with as bad as PHI has been, Ginn is scary to stream here. Is the upside even worth the severe downside? PHI might not get all the way back into a Top 10 offseason this year but Ginn has a career 349-pt. platoon split and their 3 above avg. hitters are all lefties (Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh).
Just not enough swing and miss in Lowder’s game to have any real confidence with him, particularly if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.
Gallen has very similar metrics to Lowder with just a 7% K-BB and 8% SwStr. If not for a 5% HR/FB, he’d likely be toting an ERA north of 5.00 right now.
Cecconi has always been a HR machine but it’s even worse this year at 2.0 (career 1.7) and at that rate, there’s nothing he can do to make himself a worthy stream.
This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to suggest free agent adds and drops as well as trade candidates and targets. Each entry will highlight a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who have seen their perceived value shift recently. For each player I will offer a “verdict,” an open-ended recommendation on how I would value the player moving forward. Forgive me as these suggestions may sometimes enter the realm of “hot takes.” Most of my dynasty leagues are 14 to 20-team 5×5 roto leagues, but this series aims to be broadly relevant for all keeper and dynasty formats. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings with OOPSY DC (ROS) unless I say otherwise (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C). When referencing an OOPSY Peak WAR projection, I am referencing their up-to-date peak WAR projection assuming a full season of playing time, 600 PA for hitters and 198 innings pitched for arms.
Bums: Is Matt McLain now a boring accumulator? At least that’s what the ROS projections say. But yet 2B options are so weak. How much longer should I keep stepping on this rake in a 12 team roto. Apologies if this went thru a lot getting an error on the phone
1:03
12T H2H 6×6 OBP,SLG: Hi Paul! I finally gave up on McLain for Bazzana. Keaschall, Semien, Stott, and Angel Martinez are on the wire, would you move off of Bazzana for any of these guys?
1:03
Paul Sporer: Crazy coincidence that the very first two Qs both involve McLain!!!
1:08
Paul Sporer: Boring accumulation does appear to be on deck with him. I was among those who bought the spring power surge. But it has completely evaporated in season outside of his 2-HR game v. DET. He has 5 SBs so still viable in deeper formats. I think he’s starting to straddle the cut line in 12s and lower.
Bums: Depends who’s available, but if it’s some of the names shared by the next Q, then I think there’s merit to moving on as he’s just bludgeoning the AVG for only a bit of HR/SB juice
12T H2H: With those options, you can probably try to play some hot hand stuff. That can be a tricky game if you’re always catching the tail end of a hot streak and missing most of the juice, but I guess it’s just more that I wouldn’t wait toooo long on guys before moving on. Give Bazz another 7-10 days and if it’s not turning, you can look elsewhere, but he doesn’t appear overmatched and a tiny BABIP is holding back a lot.
1:08
Charlotte: Shane-o-Mac looks so good after getting through his first 3 starts. Is he back-back??!!
Teng stands out as a saving grace. He is one of perhaps three leverage relievers in a bullpen that boasts a league-worst 6.22 ERA. The team has toyed with stretching him out as a starter — and planned to deploy him as one in Sunday’s game. Using him for 23 pitches on Saturday scuttled the plan, setting this dismal two-day cycle into motion. Teng could not pitch at all on Sunday, which perhaps forced Espada to extend both Blubaugh and Abreu beyond reason.
That Teng threw 31 pitches across two scoreless innings on Monday — in a game the Astros trailed by five runs — epitomizes the excruciating position in which Espada is mired. He deployed one of his leverage relievers in a lopsided game because turning to anyone else would’ve jeopardized their health.
Doing so almost ensures Teng won’t be available to pitch on Tuesday or Wednesday, putting the Astros at a further disadvantage against a Dodgers team with an already superior roster and more pressure on a pitching staff that can’t absorb it.
The team needs to find some stability in their rotation. Their starters have a 5.35 ERA on the season, the 2nd worst in the league behind the Diamondbacks (5.42 ERA). Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
