Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out! We’ve got day games cookin’, let’s talk some ball!
1:03
Matt: How uncomfortable with McGreevy @ATH tomorrow – particularly in Ottoneu where HR really hurt?
1:04
Paul Sporer: Quite a bit. As well as he’s been pitching, there’s plenty of regression coming and I’m not starting him here to find out if this is when it starts in earnest
1:04
Matt: McGreevy has been so hot, its tough to sit him, but that said, next week, he draws the short straw here, right (12 tm roto QS)?
Yamamoto (@SD), Sanchez (CLE), Messick (@DET,@PHI), McClanahan (BAL, @NYY), Warren (TOR, TB), McGreevy (PIT)
1:06
Paul Sporer: Yeah, it’s not as bad as at ATH, of course, but the numbers game pushes him out here. Not sure he’s all that close to the lower end of that group even on a 1-start comparison (Messick/Warren) but they both have 2 so even easier start for them over him
1:06
Ryan Raburn: Trevor Rogers was just dropped in my 10man 5×5. Do you think he is must grab?
Glovework has never been a question mark. For Gelof, the increase in playing time is largely a result of rediscovering his swing. Through struggles and injuries over the previous two seasons, Gelof’s swing mechanics had gotten out of whack. This offseason, he worked on “leveling out” his swing, and the result has been a noticeable decrease in whiffs and increased ability to put the ball in play.
It used to be tough to see if a swing change happened, but bat path is available here at FanGraphs via Baseball Savant. Here are Gelof’s numbers.
Welcome to my debut article, covering three starting pitchers struggling in 2026. Beyond the typical luck and skill factors, we want to examine a pitcher’s pitch mix, movement profile, location, and more to figure out whether these starting pitchers are likely to improve as the season progresses. Two of the struggling pitchers are veterans with a lengthy track record; the third is a less established arm who has teased us with his skills.
Will these starting pitchers perform better soon? Or should we consider dropping or selling low in some formats?
Back on April 14, I introduced my process of researching upcoming matchups and schedule outliers in three- to four-week windows to help identify waiver-wire and trade targets. The basic premise of this theory is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into short-term timeframes. We do not know who will get hurt and whether a specific team would be a good or bad matchup for a hitter or pitcher two months from now. We know that the New York Mets have been great to stream pitchers against, as have the Houston Astros for hitters. If Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Josh Hader are all healthy and playing well in mid-July, the Mets offense and the Astros pitching would be better.
My long-time fantasy baseball modus ponens has been this:
If baseball were predetermined or highly predictable, we could rely on rest-of-season analysis for fantasy baseball decisions.
Baseball is not predetermined or highly predictable. Every hitter and pitcher will either have multiple prolonged slumps, get injured and go on the IL, play hurt without the public’s knowledge, or be demoted.
Therefore, we should not heavily rely on rest-of-season analysis for fantasy baseball decisions.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
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This is the pivot start for Valdez. OK, that’s not entirely true. It’s the start of a pivot point because I know I won’t `sit him for a CLE/at BAL 2-step next week even if this goes south. This is such a perfect spot for him to get on track with the Mets ranking 30th in wOBA and only walking 7.8% of the time against lefties. While the taste of his second Super Dud (7 ER v. BOS) still lingers, it’s worth remembering he had a 2.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his four starts before that… and of course his first Super Dud (8 ER at MIN) right before it. The 15 ER in 8 IP and perhaps more damagingly the 2.75 WHIP have snuffed out his 3.06 ERA/1.10 WHIP in his other six. It’s still just a 13% K-BB in the good starts so that needs to improve to feel comfortable about him being the guy we drafted, but the bottom line is I’m going to ride it out through next week before any sit considerations.
Ohtani, Miz, and Cease highlight Wednesday’s slate as three of the best strikeout guys in the game so far this year.
Messick’s Ks still feel a bit hot relative to his true talent, but who am I to argue with some extra punchies? He’s rounded himself into a must-start with leeway even when he inevitably has a couple tough ones.
Old Detmers pokes through on occasion as he has 15 BB all year with 10 confined to a pair starts, including 6 last time out. Would love to see a rebound but sticking with him through the 2-start at the very least.
Gray was solid in his first start off the IL and is another 4-5 starts away from any major decisions; the Ks are abysmal right now with 2 or fewer in each of his last 4 and if his K% doesn’t start to improve within this next handful of starts then we can start questioning him in shallower formats.
It’s a tight group of 2-x’ers as I can squint to see ’em in 10s. They’re not locks for a bevy of reasons – Lodolo (2nd start off IL), Scott (sample), Nelson (severe volatility), Schultz (K-BB), Lugo (WHIP), and Keller (modest core skills) – but if you need someone in a shallow league, they have their merits.
Irvin, Rocker, and Painter are standard streamers thanks to their opponents but if you want to avoid another WHIP bludgeoning, I get it.
Bradish is coming off a 10-K game and catching NYY at a halfway decent time. They’re just 14th in wOBA vR over the last two weeks so perhaps Bradish can stay hot. Far from a must-start, but the ATH gem kept him off the wire for a few more.
Ritchie hasn’t earned enough trust for a matchup like CHC.
Miller looked great in his rehab stint but I’d still like to see something before diving in… the current setup is for him to open for Luis Castillo next week and then a 2-step after that. I’m down to pick him up and hold.
Jax made it 4 IP last time out… they didn’t go super well (2 ER, 5 base runners) but a season-high 59 pitches and if they keep stretching him out, this could turn into something.
Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less.
The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
They make us feel like gods. Those pitchers who begin the season on the fringe of being rostered who you stream against a weak offense to begin the season, who then go on to give you five innings with a handful of strikeouts and a win.
In this throw away culture where newer is always better, it’s easy to lose sight of the essentials. And that’s especially true when “newer” means throwing three different fastballs over 97 mph or uncorking splitters that are hurled so fast they necessitate a new name.
That presents an opportunity. To zig where the market is zagging today is to not cast aside the command artists as flukes, but instead to let results come before the flashiest of underlying numbers. If the K-BB% isn’t convincing and the Stuff+ is lacking, there is still a path to success, and to surplus value via waiver wire adds and trades.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
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Short slate + no Tigers = early crashout for me. Not that kind of crashout as it’s used today, but I passed out before the SFG-LAD game started. Anyway, let’s get into it.
No one thought Trevor Rogers was a true talent sub-2.00 ERA guy but an immediate return to his uninspiring 2024 levels wasn’t quite the expectation, either. I’m sure he had some detractors who weren’t buying into him but with a Top 40 SP price tag there was real excitement for his follow-up to last year’s rise back to prominence. Three starts in – all Quality Starts – he was looking like a bargain with a 1.89 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 19 IP. The 12% K-BB left something to be desired, but the results were great. Were.
Since then he has three straight losses with results deserving of such a fate (9.73 ERA/2.16 WHIP) and yet his K-BB is up two ticks to 14%. Each start has featured one bad inning doing most of the damage as he’s piled up 3 HR and 5 BB during the 11.3 IP of destruction. The poor run was followed by an IL stint for a wicked flu which he’s returning from today with a remarkably difficult Yankees matchup on tap. Drafted as a set-it-and-forget arm, Rogers now holds a 4.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP through six starts and can reasonably be sat this week, but I still wouldn’t cut him anywhere yet, instead preferring to hold for the at TBR/DET 2-step next week before making any moves. Obviously any success against NYY would be great, but even a Dud against them wouldn’t completely rule out taking a shot on the 2-step.
The rest of the board:
McClanahan hasn’t allowed a run for 16.7 IP over his L3 after a 5.00 ERA through his first 4 during which he only reached 5 IP once. He’s made it through 5 IP in all 3 of the recent outings, despite averaging fewer pitches per game (76 v. 80 in his F4) and surprisingly being removed after just 69 pitches in 5.7 v. TOR.
Pérez gets a 2-step this week and if we don’t see some improvements, it’s time to reassess how we’re using him week-to-week. I still have a hard time seeing any cuts barring a truly horrendous week but some strategic sits could be on the docket if he gives us another pair of mediocre outings. On the plus side, he has at least 5 IP and 6 Ks in each of his L4 despite the blah-inducing 4.64 ERA.
The 2-x board is sketchy as hell today. I don’t love running Springs at home but STL is way better vR and they don’t really take advantage of his biggest weakness – homers. Their 2.5% HR rate is middle of the pack against southpaws, but obviously that park in Sacramento can certainly raise their HR chances.
I admittedly get nervous every time I recommend Corbin, but he’s putting up the numbers! After 4 ER in his season debut, he’s allowed just 8 ER total in 5 starts since, never topping 2 in any of ’em. Now that comes with just a 10% K-BB so I’d say he’s at best a mid-4.00s true talent arm.
Maybe Gore isn’t fixed with his move to TEX. He had a 2.76 ERA through 3 starts and even survived a 6-BB outing at ATH (4.7 IP/2 ER) but he’s been horrendous since: 7.58 ERA/1.54 WHIP/9% K-BB in 19 IP.
Flaherty isn’t fully back in my good graces after his 10 Ks v. BOS, but getting NYM gives him a chance for another big start here so he’s at 2-x today and I could even see a longshot stream in 10s because of his K upside and New York’s awful season so far.
Kolek-Ober-Sproat-Singer are essentially 1.5 x’s… I’m not totally committed to running them in 12s, but they’re more in that 50-50 realm in those formats.
In my recent articles, I’ve mentioned hitter flyball pull% a lot. It’s a metric I rarely see discussed, but hugely important when evaluating a hitter’s HR/FB rate potential. It’s pretty clear why:
HR/FB Rate By Flyball Direction
FB Direction
HR/FB
Pull
30.7%
Center
7.8%
Oppo
3.7%
If you want to be a home run hitter, you should pull your flies. It’s as simple as that.
