Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 13th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out! We’ve got day games cookin’, let’s talk some ball!

Matt: How uncomfortable with McGreevy @ATH tomorrow – particularly in Ottoneu where HR really hurt?

Paul Sporer: Quite a bit. As well as he’s been pitching, there’s plenty of regression coming and I’m not starting him here to find out if this is when it starts in earnest

Matt: McGreevy has been so hot, its tough to sit him, but that said, next week, he draws the short straw here, right (12 tm roto QS)?
Yamamoto (@SD), Sanchez (CLE), Messick (@DET,@PHI), McClanahan (BAL, @NYY), Warren (TOR, TB), McGreevy (PIT)

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it’s not as bad as at ATH, of course, but the numbers game pushes him out here. Not sure he’s all that close to the lower end of that group even on a 1-start comparison (Messick/Warren) but they both have 2 so even easier start for them over him

Ryan Raburn: Trevor Rogers was just dropped in my 10man 5×5. Do you think he is must grab?

Paul Sporer: Maybe not unquestioned must, but with a 2-step next week, I’m taking a shot off the wire despite my outlook having dimmed on him severely. I didn’t think last year was a stonecold fluke and that he could live near his ERA indicators (high-3.00s ERA) for a solid season but he’s been rough. The silver lining is a 13% SwStr suggesting more Ks could be coming and if that happens as his .333 BABIP regresses, we could see a little run. TBR isn’t the best team to get back in the K column (30th in K% vL) but I’ll try out the 2 starts next wk and go from there. Who ya cuttin, btw?

SP’s: Christian Scott or Bailey Ober ROS?  Thx!

Paul Sporer: Maybe I’m being a hater, but it’s Scott. I’m not sold on this Ober rebirth yet. He’s riding the 7% HR/FB and .223 BABIP waves right now. Sometimes it’s just that simple. Career low 88.6 mph velo, 10% SwStr, and 12% K-BB have me so skeptical on this that I don’t even buy the 4.43 SIERA. Unless he magically suppresses HRs all yr (despite still being a full on flyball guy), I don’t see how he’s not a true talent 5.00s kinda guy.

And it isn’t just Ober negativity, I do like Scott, too. Missing bats at a great clip and that 15% BB rate is heavily influenced by 5 in 1.3 IP during his debut and runs counter to his MiLB track record (hasn’t had a stop over 7% since 2022).

Day Games: Bradish looks like he has the curve working today (after the obligatory walk).  How many starts does he have to string together without an implosion before he’s trusted as reliable pencil-in?

Paul Sporer: The 10 punchies earned a stay of execution but I wasn’t exactly dying to get him back in the lineup for the Yankees but this is VERY encouraging and likely holds his spot the rest of the month in the lineup barring a complete unraveling. He gets at TBR next wk followed by a TBR/TOR 2-step and then at BOS if things stay on track after that.

Arms and Armor: You had Leiter moving up in your last ranks. Do you still think he’s trending upward?

Paul Sporer: No. I’ve always been a bit softer on him and probably over-elevated him, concerned I was too negative but he certainly hasn’t done anything to keep moving up. Attrition earned him a handful of spots, too. He’s been rough since the update, lasting at least 6 v. NYY and at DET but allowing 13 H and 9 ER and then going 4.7 scoreless last time out despite 5 BB v. CHC. So I’m closer to my tepid outlook. He’s currently between his starting point from March and April’s elevated boost (~the late 60s IIRC)

Hancock: With Emerson Hancock, I am trying to balance uncertainty around his status with pretty exciting stuff/location/pitching numbers. In a 10-team dynasty would you sell or hold? What would you be looking for if selling? I am rebuilding.

Paul Sporer: If you’re selling, look for some young bats or at least a young bat. I don’t think Hancock is a total fluke, but I’d definitely stop of short of saying this is entirely real, either and instead hope to sell him for someone age-25 lower who can be a piece of my future lineup. Doesn’t have to be a cornerstone, so don’t over-ask in the market, but even like a post-hype for post-hype could be fun with Jordan Walker.

Arms and Armor: Is Walbert Urena an add in my AL Only, or would you rather have a solid middle reliever (Jose Ferrer, Daniel Lynch, etc)?

Paul Sporer: My like of Urena coming into the season paired w/Mike Maddux as pitching coach leans me his way in an AL Only. It’s so hard to find useful SP off the wire while a competent RP isn’t toooooo tough to locate, even in a super deep lg

JP: Is Cowser cooked even in deep leagues? After Ward, which Orioles OFers do you like: Beavers, Tavares, O’Neil, Cowser…

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m preparing my Cowser Crow and might even eat that around the All-Star break at this point. I even had him in my Bold Predictions as someone with loud skills who could be an adjustment or two from really popping off. Instead, his power is flat out gone to the point of wondering about injury. -4 mph on EV, -11 pts on Hard Hit rate, -6 pts on Barrel Rate — these are colossal fall-offs. This data along w/his hard-nosed play style paired w/previous injuries are leading me that way at this point. As a long-time Leody lover, I want to say he’s #2 but I’m dubious of it lasting so I’d likely lean toward O’Neill or Beavers behind Ward and Beavers just hit the IL, so gimme TON.

vent: every year I say I’m going to spend more on hitting in the draft. every year I wait on hitting in the draft and panic spend on pitching. every year by May I’m stuck with the Seagers Langfords Teoscars and Wards while also somehow having 4 of Pollack’s top 20 SP. will 2027 finally be the year I stick to my original plan

Paul Sporer: I went the other way, committing to a higher SP investment and I did pay it off at the draft table and was consistently running 1st-3rd in my Main Event until about the last 10 days. My executed plan? Tarik Skubal in the 1st! Thankfully I had a 2.86 team ERA at the time of the Skubal announcement, though I immediately pissed away a lottt of my edge, pushing it up to 3.15 in short order though that’s still a 0.32 lead over 2nd place. At any rate, didn’t share just to semi-brag but rather to hopefully give you the nudge to fully commit to your plan next yr. Skubal wasn’t my only big arm. I committed to SP more across my entire set of leagues and it has paid off nicely. I ignored some of the old traps I’d fall into in previous years and stayed dedicated to my plan. Good luck!!

Salvy Perez: Can I bounce back, or am I soon headed to the big perfume counter in the sky?

Salvador Perez: Am I done?  Grab Teel (or even rushing) instead?

Paul Sporer: I’m not worried. His HR pace isn’t too far off (~23 w/last yr’s PA total v. the 30 he actually got) but the sub-.200 AVG is making things look particularly bad. I’m reminded of just last yr w/Salvy — .220 AVG/4 HR thru 228 PA | .245/26 rest of way. I know C is deep and it can seem appealing to move off Salvy, but I’m gonna trust the deep track record a bit longer.

Ryan Raburn: Re. the Rogers question: I dont have a good clear cut, options would be Henderson, Harrison, Weathers, Early. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Maaaybe Henderson. He gets at CHC next wk, so Rogers 2-step over that is likely preferrable

Adenolith: I traded Abrams and M King for Tatis in a shallow H2H league. Am I going to regret it?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say, but I like the move. That’s a true buy low, consolidation move that you make in shallower leaguers. You’re betting on the the long-term track record and projections. Those have Tatis > Abrams rest of way despite the 0 HRs thus far. Could be some debate if King is worth the difference b/w the 2 batters but I also don’t think he’s a true talent sub-3.00 guy w/this skills profile so you could be dodging his regression to a 3.80-4.20 range while getting all the Tatis juice. It’s a great process, we’ll see if the results pay off

Guest: Rocchio having a mini-breakout?  He’s got a single digit strikeout rate!

Paul Sporer: Love me some Rocchio, though admittedly that comes from him being a long-term premium SS for me in OOTP baseball (a simulation gm where his defense is a big deal). But it has kept him on my radar for fantasy and I loved him as a deep league draft champions pick up this year with locked in PT and enough skill to squeeze out a 10/10 type season. Instead, we’ve gotten a skill surge – namely the Ks as you mention – putting him at 3/7 already and most projections have around 8 HR/12 SB from here forward, crushing that light 10/10 projection I had coming in. I wouldn’t just extrapolate his start for 600 PA but I think he can end around 10-12 HR/15-20 SB and a .260 AVG!

Paul Sporer: BRB y’all. I’ll run a little past 2pm CT, but I gotta let Charlotte out real quick

Beano: Is tonight a do or die opportunity for JR Ritchie? I see him as a viable number 4 starter IF he can get the walks under control

Paul Sporer: I’d stop short of do-or-die just bc he has a 2-step next week at MIA/v. WAS so unless this is a total meltdown, I think that’ll still carry some appeal even as a pure Wins chase for deeper leagues but I think that initial wave of excitement has been firmly tamped down. He’s thankfully been able to survive w/a 3.63 ERA despite the horrendous 1% K-BB but obviously that won’t last forever and a game v. CHC isn’t the best way to get right. If we see 3 more multi-BB outings b/w today & the 2-step next wk, then he’s gone pretty much everywhere

AJG: Eury 8 Ks and just one mistake yesterday! Cy Young back on?!?! Kidding, but can we expect top tier performance ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya his skills have kept me in pretty good spirits all year despite an ERA near or above 5.00 for most of the season. I think I just planned for his ascent a little too quickly after just 180 IP across 2 yrs (plus all of 2024 missed due to inj.) as a few too many HR and BB were part of his 2023 emergence so we shouldn’t be so surprised about his struggles as they aren’t too far afield when we take a deeper look at 2023

AJG: With all those Braves hitting, it is a shame that Riley is not back to form. I was hoping he would be back to his 35/100/100 form. What are your thoughts on him moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Also thought/hoped he’d get back on track but his power output just isn’t in line w/his peak. Still think he’s better than an 88 wRC+ but I’ve recalibrated where I’m at overall, it’s more 100-115 than the 120+ I hoped was coming back this yr

Huey Lewis: Any idea what to expect from Grayson Rodriguez ROS? My 12 team mix has 4 IL spots so I recently stashed him just for the heck of it. Am I wasting my time?

Paul Sporer: Just bc of how barren the pitching waiver market has been, I’d say it’s not a total waste of time espec. as I don’t dismiss Angels arms out of hand now w/Mike Maddux in tow (though I’ve admittedly had an Angels soft spot for yrs even w/out Maddux, sticking w/Soriano-Detmers for yrs… until this yr, of course) but just keep the expectations in check. Probably only giving him a couple starts to show something but it’s not a terrible gamble

Paul Sporer: Latest has Gausman lined up for at NYY which is of course terrifying in comparison to v. PIT. In that case, I’d take Bradish. If it is indeed PIT, I’d stick w/Gaus and hold Bradish until the following wk when he lines up for 2

Tracy: Would you Bradish at Tampa next week or Gausman at home vs the Pirates? Really encouraged by Bradish today. I have Framber, Ginn, and Cease on 2 steps and Schlittler. Pts League

Paul Sporer: Helps to post the Q you’re responding to first, Paul!

Dos Muncys: Re: Charlotte — #1 or #2?

Paul Sporer: The time probably answered that… but it was indeed 2, lol

Charlotte: mlb player comp for me? I’m thinking Bazzana, but maybe someone a little older?

Paul Sporer: “What da hell is dat supposed to mean? Trabis Banana? Ya wight. I’m basicawwy da Shohei of dogs and I don’t even wike baseballs, jeeez!!” -Char, while serving some VICIOUS side-eye

Vic: Is Brenton Doyle toast in a 15?

Paul Sporer: Ya we’re firmly in the cut zone. Only reason he’s held on in my Main (15 tm mixed) is bc I didn’t have anyone better to get last week and I had Correa to cut ahead of him. His number is up this wk – he’s my top cut unfortunately. Root hard for the player IRL, but there is just NO production and no full-Coors weeks in the offing where you can dream on a resurgence. Maybe we revisit if/when he gets going later, but cut time now if you’ve got someone to pick up. And that’s deep lgs, he’s PAST DUE cut in medium/shallow

Paying Customer: Hey, Paul, love your analysis. Not trying to slam you here, but it seems like your colleagues answer 3x as many questions in their chats. And not just this one, but consistently. Are you multitasking during these? Any way you could just bang out some short answers, lighting-round style?

Paul Sporer: No worries on the call out, but I also try to do deeper answers. I don’t know that lightning style the whole way through really offers much value as discussing the processes and diving into the data a bit. Personal preference on which is the more enjoyable chat, but yes, I def take fewer Qs but hope to offer deeper answers

sav: Can Melton save the Tigers season?

Paul Sporer: Save it? No. Be instrumental on stemming the tide of destruction that has hit them lately between injuries, poor play, and Framber starting brawls. Hard to put a savior tag on a guy w/46 MLB IP coming off an elbow injury, but if they can get a consistent 4-5 IP from him immediately upon return, that’d be a huge win. Skubal’s absence has such a cascading effect to how well they can pull of the pitching chaos thing once a week as his consistent 6-7 IP gives the pen a rest but now no one is there to consistently do that. That has to fall to Framber while Keider has done admirable job as a 2-3 in the absence of anything good from Flaherty but they can’t just get sub-5 IP outta Flaherty and Melton spots every week when the 5th spot is an RP gm.

Paul Sporer: I’d spec on Melton in deeper leagues where I have a spot open and keep him watchlisted in shallower formats

Matt: SOmone just offered me their $25 Gallen for my $9 Turang. I gotta turn that down, right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, easy pass there

Insert Your Name Here: AL-Only, Steven Kwan or Lawrence Butler for ROS?  R, SB, AVG, TB+BB, and RBI.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Both should surge as their BABIPs regress but I’ll take LawDog as I think he has more fantasy juice even if Kwan’s AVG soars past his eventually. Both are running 12% BB rates, I’ll be curious to see if either can hold that as it’s well above their normal rates. But ya, bottom line I’ll take LawDog for your league

Guest: Is it safe to drop Manny Machado and ride with Dodger Max Muncy? I feel like I’m wasting a roster spot having two 3B when I need to max out my innings pitched.

Paul Sporer: Gotta hold both!! I presume it’s a shallower league (not talking trash or anything, just not sure Machado is even getting a discussion for a cut in deeper setups) so it can be tough to just sit on struggling vets on the wire, but the beauty of having Muncy is that you’re still getting top tier production at 3B while waiting for Machado to get going. Machado is another BABIP casualty, running at .212 v. a career .297 and there’s just no way he stays down there all year. His power is like a click off of the normal production, too. Just gotta have someone else you can cut and hold Manny a bit longer

Salty: Is it still a bit early to grab Melton if he still has a few rehab starts left?  Checking the boxscore of his last start, his results were great but he was averaging 94-95 on his FB, a bit lower than prior to the injury.

Paul Sporer: I’d let your league waiver tendencies sorta drive that. Are your mates picking up 2-step guys a whole week ahead of their 2-step or trying to spec on AAA call-ups right before they happen? If so, I can see getting Melton now. If it’s more of a league focused on the here & now and won’t worry about Melton until he’s called up by the Tigers, then yes, you can stretch it a bit

Chucky: Just lost Alvarez, I know, no big loss. Who’s his replacement in a 12T Redraft 6×6 OBP, JT R or Moreno. Slim pickins’

Paul Sporer: At least C has some depth to it, espec. in 1-C lgs. Neither are doing a damn thing worth writing home about so I’ll just take the guy a decade younger in Moreno. I wouldn’t be against streaming a bit, too, though, and looking to play some hot hands

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. I appreciate y’all coming and the feedback on answer frequency. I do still intend to be more thorough w/my answers while mixing in some quick hitters. There’s a decent contingent who read these when they’re done so obviously they aren’t as worried about the frequency, but I realize that’s a different experience for those who are here live. I’ll try to be mindful of it and cut down some of the dead time, but it’s not bc I’m twiddling my thumbs and more bc I’m digging into their FG, Savant, PitcherList, etc… profiles and really turning over all the the rocks to answer the Q. Take care!!

Lightning Bolte: What’s your expectation for this Bolte kid, sporer?

Paul Sporer: My patented answer after the goodbye, but I saw few Bolte inquiries — their baby Coors-esque park gives most of their call-ups at least a tinge of interest of deeper formats and Bolte’s quick start (12 HR/17 SB/.348 AVG) expands that interest a bit more so I think he’s rosterable in 12s. A .402 BABIP and 44% HR/FB are doing A LOTTTTT of heavy lifting but some punch and tons of speed is enough to take a look and see if the hot hand holds in the majors

Ryan: First time commenter, and appreciate the deeper answers myself, and read these after the fact i am finding. Thanks for the thoughts, and go Tigers!

Thanks: Thanks, Paul!  Don’t change a thing!

Paul Sporer: Y’all rule, thanks so much! OK, bye for real!