Hitter Pull FB% Gainers & Decliners — May 12, 2026

In my recent articles, I’ve mentioned hitter flyball pull% a lot. It’s a metric I rarely see discussed, but hugely important when evaluating a hitter’s HR/FB rate potential. It’s pretty clear why:

If you want to be a home run hitter, you should pull your flies. It’s as simple as that.

So it’s worth paying attention to the hitters who have increased and decreased their pulled FB% marks compared to last year. Such changes could help explain a shift in HR/FB rate.

Let’s start with the pulled FB% gainers.

Well what do you know, out of the 13 top FB Pull% gainers, a whopping nine of them have enjoyed HR/FB rate gains. Out of the four that suffered declines, two of them were within 0.5% of last year. So that means that just two have suffered meaningful declines.

It was pretty obvious that we should have bet on a Gunnar Henderson HR/FB rate rebound this year. But he’s making it too easy for himself — he had never posted a FB Pull% higher than 25.5% previously, and now he ranks third in baseball in the metric! It still hasn’t been enough to push him above his peak mark in 2024, but that’s because his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% are all down from those levels, so he simply hasn’t been hitting the ball as hard or optimally. The good news is a massive increase in FB% has really boosted his home run potential, but that’s also being offset by a skyrocketing strikeout rate. It’s been a weird season, but the big Pull FB% should at least guarantee a HR/FB rate of 20%+.

Do we want a guy with middling power to be pulling so many of his flyballs? That’s what Bryson Stott is doing right now and it’s done nothing for his HR/FB rate or overall performance. His HardHit% is way up though, but the rest of his skills are generally in line with history. If he keeps this up, I’d venture to say he’s got a chance at his first double digit HR/FB rate.

Hunter Goodman is leading baseball in Pull FB% and he already recorded an above average mark last year. His HR/FB rate is now comfortably in the mid-20% range after a breakout full season last year. He’s seemingly going all out for the homers, as his strikeout rate has surged into the mid-30% range, while his FB% is up near 50%. It’s gotten him to about the same wOBA as last year, but it’s been a different journey to get there. The power output is clearly for real. The only question I have is how long he could maintain a well above average BABIP with such an extreme flyball tendency.

The biggest HR/FB rate gainer on this list is Xander Bogaerts, whose mark is now sitting at the second highest of his career after two straight single digit marks. All it took was a career high FB Pull%. That mark had never even reached 30%, and is now sitting over 40%! Everything else is in line with his norms, so it’ll all come down to whether he maintains this pull rate moving forward. If so, he could reach 20 homers for the first time since 2021.

This is not the rebound Jake Burger needed after an ugly season last year. The pulled flies have pushed up his HR/FB rate marginally, but it still sits well below his 2023 mark, which looks like the clear outlier. A major problem here is his complete lack of walks. With such a putrid walk rate, he’s heavily reliant on his diminishing power to provide any semblance of offensive value. If this so-called swing retooling after sitting out a couple of games doesn’t pay dividends soon, he could be out of a job.

From around the league average to well above, Ian Happ’s increased FB Pull% has raised his HR/FB rate back above 20%, where it hasn’t been since 2021. He’s also posting a career best Barrel%, supporting the HR/FB rate, despite a stable HardHit% and down maxEV. It suggests that Happ hasn’t actually gained any raw power, but is simply hitting more optimally for home runs…and it’s working. He has also posted a career high FB% to maximize that home run count, but it’s being offset by his worst strikeout rate since 2018. It’s really a mixed bag here, but the pulled flies could keep that HR/FB rate above 20%.

I faded Corbin Carroll this draft season after coming off hamate bone surgery, which is known to sap power. While his maxEV is down, his other Statcast metrics are in line with history and his HR/FB rate is only down marginally from his career mark. Perhaps he has compensated for a decline in raw power by pulling all his flies, which has kept his results afloat. A decline in FB% and increased strikeout rate has pushed his home run pace well below last year’s, though, and he has surprisingly only swiped four bases. So he’s been a disappointment in fantasy leagues, even if he came at a slight wrist injury discount. You never know when a player will suddenly become healthy, but I’m actually more concerned about the lack of steals than his power.

Who had Casey Schmitt as the best Giants hitter right now…and by far?! All his extra pulled flies haven’t benefited his HR/FB rate, which is nearly identical to last year. That’s shocking considering his HardHit% is up and quite strong, while his Barrel% has spiked and entered elite territory. He has also become an extreme flyball hitter, so any increases in HR/FB rate will have an outsized effect on his home run total. His BABIP looks like a total mirage given the batted ball profile light on liners and heavy on flies and pop-ups, but he really out to be hitting more home runs, assuming nothing changes.

Angel Martínez has been a surprise power/speed threat, on pace for a 20/20 season over 600 PAs. In addition to pulling a higher rate of his flies, his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% are all up, with the latter more than double his low 2025 mark. That he rarely walks limits his runs scored potential and adds risk that a slump costs him playing time.

Wondering how Mickey Moniak suddenly became a power monster? He has posted a .353 ISO!!!! It’s all in the combination of FB Pull% and the sixth highest FB% in baseball. So, he’s pulling more flies, which have led to a higher HR/FB rate and more home runs, and he’s hitting more fly balls, which have led to even more home runs. His Statcast power metrics are slightly worse than last year, so again, there’s no added power here, he’s just maximizing his swing for the power he owns. That BABIP isn’t staying, but he’s going to post a career best HR/FB rate the rest of the way too, as long as he keeps pulling those flies.

Remember when I said above that if you want to hit home runs, you need to pull your flyballs? Aaron Judge snickered, as he posted a lowly 13.3% Pull FB% last year, and yet still managed a 29.4% HR/FB rate. That’s how much power is in his bat, it doesn’t even matter which part of the field his flyballs end up. Amazingly, he hasn’t been much of a pulled flyball guy throughout his whole career, so this current year mark actually represents the third highest of his career, and yet is still below league average.

My gosh, Josh Bell is the largest HR/FB rate decliner despite the big increase in FB Pull%, and yet his Statcast metrics still look pretty good. You might think they were in freefall for a 33-year-old feeling the effects of aging, but that’s just not happening. In fact, the whole profile looks fine and with a career high FB%, should really be surprising with his home run total. Alas, he has just three. Amazingly, he continues to bat in the middle of the Twins lineup, mostly at cleanup, despite a 74 wRC+. I would imagine he gets dropped at some point soon if he doesn’t turn things around, but I’m cautiously optimistic here.

Let’s now flip over to the Pull FB% decliners.

Just like for the gainers whose HR/FB rate followed their FB Pull% trend, 10 of the 12 decliners have suffered HR/FB rate declines. Note that I arbitrarily chose a 30 flyball minimum for these lists, so the poster boy for a FB Pull% decline, Fernando Tatis Jr., is missing.

Jeff McNeil seemed like an interesting fantasy target after moving to the homer friendly Athletics stadium as his home park. Instead, he’s posted a microscopic 1% Barrel% and homered just once. A severe drop in FB Pull%, coupled with a decline in bat speed suggest that his days of being anything more than an empty batting average might be over.

If you were seeking an answer to what happened to Luis Garcia Jr.’s power, it’s the almost complete lack of pulled flies. With only two steals and a platoon role, he’s unplayable in shallow mixed leagues.

With the home park changes in Kansas City, I really wanted to roster a number of Royals this year, including Salvador Perez. Luckily, I missed out on the catcher, as ending his pulled flyball ways is not how you go about taking advantage of a friendlier park for home runs. His bat speed is down, and there are enough small declines across the board to wonder if age-related decline has finally arrived.

Otto Lopez is one of the few names on this list who have actually gained HR/FB rate, albeit only a 0.5% one. He has also been pulling his flies at a single digit clip, but he has upped all his Statcast metrics, which now actually look quite good. In fact, if it weren’t for the sudden lack of pulled flies, he might very well be looking at a 20-homer season. Obviously, that BABIP won’t last, but if he gets back to pulling his flies, he might surprise in the home run department.

Wow, a 3.3% FB Pull% for Gleyber Torres?! Remember when he debuted back in 2018 and posted a 17.9% HR/FB rate with 24 homers, then followed that up with a 21.5% HR/FB rate and 38 home runs? That has become a real distant memory. I would love to know what happened here, as it wasn’t just a Yankee Stadium thing since he played five more seasons with the team and never came close to that kind of performance again. Was he just lucky the first two years? The Statcast metrics were fine, but nothing special, and FB Pull% marks were actually the two highest of his career, but still just below league average. So luck actually seems close to the truth, but man, it can’t be all luck. It’s pretty clear that the power isn’t coming back, but his plate discipline has become elite, so he remains a solid hitter in real baseball.

TJ Friedl didn’t have much power to begin with, so a drop here isn’t going to make much of a dent in his fantasy value. What’s killing him is the increased strikeout rate combined with a BABIP collapse. How he’s still hitting leadoff is a question for another day.

It took until April 26 for Bobby Witt Jr. to hit his first homer of the year. He now has five and his HR/FB rate is only down marginally from last year. It’s still crazy to me how elite his Statcast power metrics are, and yet his career best HR/FB rate sits at just 13.4%. He’s never been a big pulled flyball guy, but he had been consistently in the low 20% range, which isn’t low enough to explain the Statcast metric and HR/FB rate disconnect. This year, the FB Pull% is definitely to blame for the lack of homers and that’s head-scratching. All the skills here remain fantastic and while I have no idea what’s going on with his flyball direction, I still couldn’t possibly advise selling. One of these years he’s going to hit 40 homers with a 20%+ HR/FB rate.

Michael Busch made my buy low article yesterday, so you knew he would appear here. I still can’t over the fact that his swing speed is just 68.3 MPH and his fast swing rate has nearly been cut in half versus last year. I like a lot of the other skills, but I’m unsure whether a big rebound is in the cards.

I liked Adolis Garcia for a rebound in a more home run friendly park, but he’s failed to take advantage by rarely pulling his flies. It’s unfortunate, because his HardHit% sits at a career high and maxEV remains above 110 MPH, though his Barrel% has dropped into the single digits for the first time. For a cleanup hitter behind a pair of high OBPs, it’s shocking that he’s recorded just 13 RBI. I expect improved performance moving forward, but man, I would really like to see that FB Pull% increase to be confident he’s back to the 20-homer guy we became accustomed to.

I was hoping a poor debut last year by Samuel Basallo would keep him cheap in drafts/auctions this year as I was a big fan. It did not, and I was only able to roster him in one of three leagues. He’s been perfectly good so far this year despite the big drop in FB Pull%, but more pulled balls could push that HR/FB rate closer to 20%. I can’t imagine he maintains that BABIP and batting average though, but this should be the baseline for his power moving forward.