Adell can’t stop robbing people:

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

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This is the pivot start for Valdez. OK, that’s not entirely true. It’s the start of a pivot point because I know I won’t `sit him for a CLE/at BAL 2-step next week even if this goes south. This is such a perfect spot for him to get on track with the Mets ranking 30th in wOBA and only walking 7.8% of the time against lefties. While the taste of his second Super Dud (7 ER v. BOS) still lingers, it’s worth remembering he had a 2.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his four starts before that… and of course his first Super Dud (8 ER at MIN) right before it. The 15 ER in 8 IP and perhaps more damagingly the 2.75 WHIP have snuffed out his 3.06 ERA/1.10 WHIP in his other six. It’s still just a 13% K-BB in the good starts so that needs to improve to feel comfortable about him being the guy we drafted, but the bottom line is I’m going to ride it out through next week before any sit considerations.

• Ohtani, Miz, and Cease highlight Wednesday’s slate as three of the best strikeout guys in the game so far this year.
• Messick’s Ks still feel a bit hot relative to his true talent, but who am I to argue with some extra punchies? He’s rounded himself into a must-start with leeway even when he inevitably has a couple tough ones.
• Old Detmers pokes through on occasion as he has 15 BB all year with 10 confined to a pair starts, including 6 last time out. Would love to see a rebound but sticking with him through the 2-start at the very least.
• Gray was solid in his first start off the IL and is another 4-5 starts away from any major decisions; the Ks are abysmal right now with 2 or fewer in each of his last 4 and if his K% doesn’t start to improve within this next handful of starts then we can start questioning him in shallower formats.
• It’s a tight group of 2-x’ers as I can squint to see ’em in 10s. They’re not locks for a bevy of reasons – Lodolo (2nd start off IL), Scott (sample), Nelson (severe volatility), Schultz (K-BB), Lugo (WHIP), and Keller (modest core skills) – but if you need someone in a shallow league, they have their merits.
• Irvin, Rocker, and Painter are standard streamers thanks to their opponents but if you want to avoid another WHIP bludgeoning, I get it.
• Bradish is coming off a 10-K game and catching NYY at a halfway decent time. They’re just 14th in wOBA vR over the last two weeks so perhaps Bradish can stay hot. Far from a must-start, but the ATH gem kept him off the wire for a few more.
• Ritchie hasn’t earned enough trust for a matchup like CHC.
• Miller looked great in his rehab stint but I’d still like to see something before diving in… the current setup is for him to open for Luis Castillo next week and then a 2-step after that. I’m down to pick him up and hold.
• Jax made it 4 IP last time out… they didn’t go super well (2 ER, 5 base runners) but a season-high 59 pitches and if they keep stretching him out, this could turn into something.

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Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less.

The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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They make us feel like gods. Those pitchers who begin the season on the fringe of being rostered who you stream against a weak offense to begin the season, who then go on to give you five innings with a handful of strikeouts and a win. 

In this throw away culture where newer is always better, it’s easy to lose sight of the essentials. And that’s especially true when “newer” means throwing three different fastballs over 97 mph or uncorking splitters that are hurled so fast they necessitate a new name.

That presents an opportunity. To zig where the market is zagging today is to not cast aside the command artists as flukes, but instead to let results come before the flashiest of underlying numbers. If the K-BB% isn’t convincing and the Stuff+ is lacking, there is still a path to success, and to surplus value via waiver wire adds and trades.

You know this story already. 

Remember Rick Porcello? Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

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Short slate + no Tigers = early crashout for me. Not that kind of crashout as it’s used today, but I passed out before the SFG-LAD game started. Anyway, let’s get into it.

No one thought Trevor Rogers was a true talent sub-2.00 ERA guy but an immediate return to his uninspiring 2024 levels wasn’t quite the expectation, either. I’m sure he had some detractors who weren’t buying into him but with a Top 40 SP price tag there was real excitement for his follow-up to last year’s rise back to prominence. Three starts in – all Quality Starts – he was looking like a bargain with a 1.89 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 19 IP. The 12% K-BB left something to be desired, but the results were great. Were.

Since then he has three straight losses with results deserving of such a fate (9.73 ERA/2.16 WHIP) and yet his K-BB is up two ticks to 14%. Each start has featured one bad inning doing most of the damage as he’s piled up 3 HR and 5 BB during the 11.3 IP of destruction. The poor run was followed by an IL stint for a wicked flu which he’s returning from today with a remarkably difficult Yankees matchup on tap. Drafted as a set-it-and-forget arm, Rogers now holds a 4.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP through six starts and can reasonably be sat this week, but I still wouldn’t cut him anywhere yet, instead preferring to hold for the at TBR/DET 2-step next week before making any moves. Obviously any success against NYY would be great, but even a Dud against them wouldn’t completely rule out taking a shot on the 2-step.

The rest of the board:

• McClanahan hasn’t allowed a run for 16.7 IP over his L3 after a 5.00 ERA through his first 4 during which he only reached 5 IP once. He’s made it through 5 IP in all 3 of the recent outings, despite averaging fewer pitches per game (76 v. 80 in his F4) and surprisingly being removed after just 69 pitches in 5.7 v. TOR.
• Pérez gets a 2-step this week and if we don’t see some improvements, it’s time to reassess how we’re using him week-to-week. I still have a hard time seeing any cuts barring a truly horrendous week but some strategic sits could be on the docket if he gives us another pair of mediocre outings. On the plus side, he has at least 5 IP and 6 Ks in each of his L4 despite the blah-inducing 4.64 ERA.
• The 2-x board is sketchy as hell today. I don’t love running Springs at home but STL is way better vR and they don’t really take advantage of his biggest weakness – homers. Their 2.5% HR rate is middle of the pack against southpaws, but obviously that park in Sacramento can certainly raise their HR chances.
• I admittedly get nervous every time I recommend Corbin, but he’s putting up the numbers! After 4 ER in his season debut, he’s allowed just 8 ER total in 5 starts since, never topping 2 in any of ’em. Now that comes with just a 10% K-BB so I’d say he’s at best a mid-4.00s true talent arm.
• Maybe Gore isn’t fixed with his move to TEX. He had a 2.76 ERA through 3 starts and even survived a 6-BB outing at ATH (4.7 IP/2 ER) but he’s been horrendous since: 7.58 ERA/1.54 WHIP/9% K-BB in 19 IP.
• Flaherty isn’t fully back in my good graces after his 10 Ks v. BOS, but getting NYM gives him a chance for another big start here so he’s at 2-x today and I could even see a longshot stream in 10s because of his K upside and New York’s awful season so far.
• Kolek-Ober-Sproat-Singer are essentially 1.5 x’s… I’m not totally committed to running them in 12s, but they’re more in that 50-50 realm in those formats.

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In my recent articles, I’ve mentioned hitter flyball pull% a lot. It’s a metric I rarely see discussed, but hugely important when evaluating a hitter’s HR/FB rate potential. It’s pretty clear why:

If you want to be a home run hitter, you should pull your flies. It’s as simple as that.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 7 Overview

The Philadelphia Phillies took advantage of their matchups (1 at MIA, 3 vs. ATH, 3 vs. COL) in Week 7. They won five-of-seven games and scored a league-high 39 runs. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper led all hitters in home runs, with five and four respectively. Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages also hit four homers, three on Wednesday against the Astros. Brandon Marsh continued tearing it up. He led everyone in hits (14 in 27 at-bats), though he only drove in three runs. Twins Byron Buxton also had a strong week and has been the top hitter in 5×5 roto over the last two weeks — 11 R – 8 HR – 14 RBI – 3 SB – .316. Luke Raley led all hitters with 10 RBI, seven in one game. He’s a strong streamer in Week 8 with the Mariners slated to face seven right-handed starters.

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Last Monday, I discussed Fernando Tatis Jr.’s odd season and the possibility that his missing power output is related to a stance change that hasn’t had the intended effect. I noted the natural next question at the end: what other players have made stance changes and what are we seeing from them? We’ll dig into that today.

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Here is today’s chat transcript:
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With more than a quarter of the season in the books, buy low and sell high time is in full swing. Between X posts, website articles, and podcasts, everyone is dropping names of players off to cold or hot starts that are candidates to be involved in a trade to extract maximum value. Unfortunately, it’s far easier said than done, particularly if you’re in a competitive league (like one filled with FanGraphs and RotoGraphs readers, of course!). So while it’s easy to tell your readers to buy Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Shohei Ohtani, actually executing on such recommendations ain’t.

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