The Trade Desk: Upcoming Outlier Matchups

Back on April 14, I introduced my process of researching upcoming matchups and schedule outliers in three- to four-week windows to help identify waiver-wire and trade targets. The basic premise of this theory is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into short-term timeframes. We do not know who will get hurt and whether a specific team would be a good or bad matchup for a hitter or pitcher two months from now. We know that the New York Mets have been great to stream pitchers against, as have the Houston Astros for hitters. If Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Josh Hader are all healthy and playing well in mid-July, the Mets offense and the Astros pitching would be better.

My long-time fantasy baseball modus ponens has been this:

1. If baseball were predetermined or highly predictable, we could rely on rest-of-season analysis for fantasy baseball decisions.
2. Baseball is not predetermined or highly predictable. Every hitter and pitcher will either have multiple prolonged slumps, get injured and go on the IL, play hurt without the public’s knowledge, or be demoted.
3. Therefore, we should not heavily rely on rest-of-season analysis for fantasy baseball decisions.

Looking one week ahead helps churn and optimize the bottom of our rosters via waiver wire or FA pickups. Most managers can identify a worthwhile streamer based on a set of matchups for the upcoming week — a hitter moving up his team’s lineup with a week of matchups in hitter-friendly parks (CIN, COL, ATH) or a starting pitcher with two starts against two league-bottom offenses in pitcher’s parks. One example of the former: the Seattle Mariners have seven games this week, all currently projected against right-handed pitchers. Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone are left-handed hitters with plus power against RHPs, would likely play seven games, and were mostly available as pickups in shallow leagues. But we don’t play in one-person leagues. We must either compete against other managers (FAAB), be quick on the draw (first-come, first-served FA), or agonize over a tough decision about our waiver priority.

Outlier Matchups Review

We can grind our way in FAAB or waivers every week, but if several managers have their eyes on the same prizes, competition ensues, and the market value of those prizes increases. There are no guarantees with my 3- to 4-week process either. Take a look at which teams I identified as positive and negative outliers based on the upcoming 3.5 weeks of matchups (4/17 – 5/10) in that April 14 article, and the results:

• Positive Outlier # 1: Chicago White Sox (win)
• Positive Outlier #2: New York Mets (loss)
• Negative Outlier: St. Louis Cardinals (loss)

The White Sox had an undeniable schedule/matchup advantage over the rest of the league for this period. They were to face the A’s in Sutter Health Park, the Diamondbacks, the Nationals (“bad” pitching), and the wretched Angels for six games. How did the White Sox perform? They scored the fourth-most runs (111 in 21 games) over that period, second in ISO (.192), and third in wRC+ (124). A struggling Miguel Vargas leveraged the advantageous matchups, ranking among the top seven in HR and RBI over that stretch. Munetaka Murakami (10 HR – 20 RBI) and Colson Montgomery (7 HR – 19 RBI) were also among the power production leaders, and batted .100 points higher than their early-season stretch. Even deep-league streamer Chase Meidroth helped in two categories — runs (17) and batting average (.321).

Just about every Mets hitter was underperforming by the middle of April. They were without Juan Soto at the time and were lined up for some good matchups (vs. MIN, WSN, LAA, ARI, 3 vs. COL, 3 at COL). Francisco Lindor went 7-18 with 4 RBI in the first five games of that period before his calf injury and IL stint. Perennial IL visitor Luis Robert Jr. joined Lindor four days later, and soon thereafter, Jorge Polanco (playing through injury), and Lindor’s replacement, Ronny Mauricio. The Mets scored the fifth fewest runs over that 3.5-week window (74). The matchups didn’t matter as the offense remained out of sync. Starting Mets in our fantasy lineups was a net negative.

The Cardinals were slated to face a load of good starting pitchers, and in some cases, bullpens — the Astros, Marlins, Mariners, Pirates, Dodgers, Brewers, and Padres. The matchups didn’t matter much as the boys mostly continued to run hot, scoring the seventh-most runs (106), averaging 4.8 per game. They swept the Astros and Pirates (four games), won 2-of-3 against the Dodgers, and were swept by the Mariners, but scored 13 runs in the series. Jordan Walker (.282-16-3-14-5) did not slow down like I thought he would. JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Iván Herrera, and Masyn Winn all provided positive value. Nathan Church and Nolan Gorman were mostly helpful streamers.

The Next 3 Weeks

Here are the two outliers I’ve identified through the end of the month, starting this Friday, May 15. I’m sad to report that it just so happens to be two of the five worst offenses.

San Francisco Giants

• rest of Week 8: Athletics (away x 3)
• Week 9: Diamondbacks (away x 3), White Sox (home x 3)
• Week 10: Diamondbacks (home x 3), Rockies (away x 3)

The Giants offense has been awful. It took a 9-spot against the Dodgers on Monday for them to catch the Mets for the fewest runs scored in the majors. There are a few bright signs: Rafael Devers is finally starting to perk up at the plate, Bryce Eldridge has arrived and they’ll find a way to get him playing time, Harrison Bader was activated, and their catcher duo (Jesus Rodriguez, Daniel Susac) is much more fantasy-friendly than the roto-soul-sucking, Patrick Bailey. I’ve never been a Matt Chapman guy, but right now is the lowest value point of the season, as he’s been moved down to seventh in the lineup. Perhaps a series against his old team, in Sacramento, gets him going. I’d pick him up immediately if he was dropped in my 12-teamer and my current third basemen is Casey Schmitt, Brooks Lee or if I just lost Jose Caballero to the IL.

By the way, Sutter Health Park has the highest MLB Park Factor so far this season (118) and the weather hasn’t even warmed up yet. Note that this is a very small sample and that we should ideally be viewing Park Factors three years rolling. A’s hitters have a 118 wRC+ at home this season, 89 on the road.

Texas Rangers

• rest of Week 8: Astros (away x 3)
• Week 9: Rockies (away x 3), Angels (away x 3)
• Week 10: Astros (home x 4), Royals (home x 3)

These matchups aren’t going to save this putrid offense, but a hot spurt is possible with a trip to Coors and Angel Stadium next week. Corey Seager (.189 AVG, 48% HH, 16.5% BRL) is a buy-low and Ezequiel Duran is a worthy streamer. Not sure what is going with Jake Burger. He has one home run since April 16, a career-low ISO (.151) and was dropped to the eighth spot. I’d want to see good at-bats this week before blindly starting him next week simply because of matchups. The issue for Evan Carter and a deep-league streamer like Joc Pederson is that they might only play one game at Coors Field if the Rockies field their two lefty starters. The catchers (Danny Jansen, Kyle Higashioka) aren’t in a straightforward platoon, which makes it harder to stream either one in 15-teamers. Higashioka has drawn the last two starts.

Starting this Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks will play seven games against the Rockies in a 10-day span. The first three are at Coors. Ryan Waldschmidt should be scooped up in a few of the remaining 12-team leagues where he is available, and it might be a good time for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to finally get going. Adrian Del Castillo, their DH against righties, is one game away from being catcher-eligible in leagues where 10 minimum are required.

Let’s wrap this up with a look at the Atlanta Braves, who will likely face just as many LHPs as RHPs over the next few weeks. They have six games against the Boston Red Sox over the next two weeks, a lefty-heavy rotation that might even get Garrett Crochet back for their late-May series with the Braves. Having several lefty startups mixed in renders strong-side platoon hitters like Mike Yastrzemski and Dominic Smith useless. We’re starting Ozzie Albies if we have him regardless, but it’s worth mentioning how much better he’s been against lefties in his career:

• vs. LHP: .328/.352/.542, 12.3% K, 138 wRC+
• vs. RHP: .245/.310/.425, 17.7% K, 96 wRC+

I’m sure there are Austin Riley investors who are annoyed or worried by his year-to-date production. He is batting .213 with a .213 xBA, and his underlying power metrics are all down, albeit, not quite in the panic zone:

Riley’s launch angle (17.7 degrees) has been slightly higher than the two previous seasons (16.8, 15.9), but his groundball rate is way up and he clearly isn’t hitting the ball as hard as in years’ past. He has also been struggling with offspeed (.105 SLG, .101 xSLG) and breaking (.169, .178) pitches like never before. I don’t believe that Riley is hiding an injury or playing hurt. He was one of the hottest hitters in spring training (I know, not all MLB pitchers), so this is likely part-mental, part-mechanical. Riley has always hit lefty pitchers slightly better, so perhaps facing a few more in the next couple of weeks helps his production and confidence. His year-to-date wRC+ split (126 vs. L, 57 vs. R) is much wider than his career split before this season (134 vs. 118).

We should never stop grinding weekly streamers, and it doesn’t hurt to glance at ROS projection data, so long as we don’t base all our decisions on them. The three- to-four-week window has been a helpful part of my assessment process, and will continue to be, especially in this era of data bliss and a more competitive fantasy baseball landscape. We should take every edge we can get.