The Trade Desk: Short Term Gains

Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.

Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire in the form of a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out for a long-term view and not being stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to attempt to sell-high or buy-low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal or acquire, and how good their player and market valuation skills are. I’ll do my best to dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

Trading for Short Term Gains

Streaming hitters and pitchers based on an upcoming week’s set of matchups is a strategy that winning managers have utilized for decades — a two-start pitcher with increased velocity and strong recent outings, or a hot hitter moving up in his team’s batting order with Coors Field and Great American Ball Park on tap. Most fantasy baseball managers are aware that these types of players are ideal free agent or waiver pickups, especially if we have an easy drop. This is easier to execute in shallower (10- and 12-team leagues) because the likelihood of these targets being available is higher due to the larger free agent pool. It’s wise to plan ahead for the upcoming week, perhaps even for the week after that, if feasible.

What if I told you that you can optimize your roster for a longer-term outlook based on the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule? The following strategy can work via waivers/FAAB or trading, but it requires astute analysis and some extra digging. For this week, let’s frame it from the perspective of targeting hitters to buy low on. We can do this in the following manner:

1. Research each MLB team’s year-to-date pitching stats. I do this via FanGraphs’ TEAM stats.
2. Identify the outliers — the best and worst pitching rotations and bullpens
3. Review each MLB team’s set of matchups for the next 3-4 weeks
4. Match the outliers (5-6 best, 5-6 worst team pitching staffs) to the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule
5. If a team’s offense is scheduled to face several “bad” pitching staffs, hitters from those offenses are buy or add candidates, and vice versa

The May 2025 Chicago Cubs 

In early May last season, I ran through this process and identified that the Chicago Cubs had an extraordinarily advantageous set of matchups in the second half of the month. We had a small, yet reasonable sample size (first six weeks of the season) and their schedule really stood out like a sore thumb from May 16, 2025 – June 5, 2025: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 at Marlins, 3 at Reds, 3 vs. Rockies, 3 vs. Reds, 3 at Nationals.

Pitchers get better and worse, get promoted and demoted, and they get hurt. Things change, so this isn’t an exact science, but my assessment of a short-term matchup advantage for the hitters proved true. Over that three-week span, the Cubs went 14-4 and led the Majors with 112 runs scored (6.22 runs per game). The next closest were the Dodgers (102 runs) and the median for runs scored over that span was in the mid-70s. Core Cubs hitters were mostly rostered in all formats, but some were available in shallow-league waivers and there were certainly buying opportunities via trade. Five of their hitters batted .325 or higher over those three weeks (Suzuki .343, Tucker .339, Hoerner .338, Busch .333, Shaw .327) and Pete Crow-Armstrong went ham altogether (.293-17-5-23-8 in 80 PA). We may not be able to predict the future accurately, but with a basic understanding of the ‘buy-low/sell-high’ philosophy, perhaps we may have come to the conclusion that Crow-Armstrong could draw a huge (top-25 overall hitter) return in a 1-for-1 trade. Sure, PCA continued to produce at a high level for another month before his post-ASB crash-and-burn (.216-6 HR-8 SB after .265-25-27), but the idea of selling a hot, young player at his likely apex should have at least crossed our minds.

Every single hitter goes through waves and troughs throughout the season. In most cases, we ride these waves (leave them in the lineup), but sometimes we paddle through and sit it out (bench them). Once in a while, we have to trade in our reliable longboard for a newer, sleeker version that makes the ride smoother.

Upcoming Hitter Matchup Outliers

How can we confidently trust a three-week sample of pitching data to determine which team’s pitching will be good or bad over the next 3-4 weeks? A starter or reliever can have a bad outing at any time, and a team’s staff can over or underperform for a stretch, but certain things we can accept as true. Such as, the Mariners, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Dodgers and Braves have good pitching and are generally tough matchups in a series. Or that the Nationals, Angels, Rockies and Cardinals are among the league’s worst and are generally plus matchups for opposing hitters in a series. Then there are slight adjustments we can make based on ballpark: Coors Field (Rockies) or Sutter Health Park (Athletics) are good for hitters; T-Mobile Park (Mariners) and Oracle Park (Giants) are not.

We can then go to the FanGraphs team pitching stats, sort through and do some digging. Do the Mariners still look like an elite staff and bullpen? Fourth-best WAR, best ERA, top-five xFIP, lowest walk rate: check. Do Nationals pitchers still appear to be a strong group to target hitters against? See for yourself:

Feel free to sort this table by different categories, click on various Stat Presets (Advanced, Batted Ball, Statcast) to review other metrics, split between starters and relievers (under Positional Split), or review 2025’s data.

Are the Astros (6.50 ERA, 6.0 BB/9) going to have the worst staff and be a target to stream hitters against in the short term? Probably. They’re down Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier (which isn’t saying much) and Josh Hader. Mike Burrows and Bryan Abreu have been horrendous, and they’ve recently added Cody Bolton, Colton Gordon and J.P. France into the mix. It might be a prettier picture in August, but for the next 3-4 weeks, it’s fair to consider them a “bad” staff. If Garrett Crochet isn’t hurt and bounces back, as most of us expect, we likely won’t see Red Sox pitchers among the bottom-five in two months from now.

Most of the pitching staffs closer to average are a “push” — they don’t move the needle to help identify outlier-good or outlier-bad matchups. We’re looking for a string of extremes. Here are a couple:

Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks (Friday, April, 17 – Sunday, May 10)

Chicago White Sox

• 3 at Athletics
• 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Nationals
• 3 vs. Angels, 3 at Padres
• 3 at Angels, 3 vs. Mariners

Except for the Padres and Mariners, facing ATH, ARZ, WSN, LAA (x2) is as good as it gets. Perhaps slow-starter Miguel Vargas (1 HR, 180 BA, .222 BABIP, 14.5% BB) is a worthwhile trade target who can be acquired for a cheap return. Or perhaps we’re on the precipice of another Munetaka Murakami power heater. Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero are getting dropped in many deeper formats.

New York Mets

• 3 at Cubs
• 3 vs Twins, 3 vs. Rockies
• 3 vs. Nationals, 3 at Angels
• 3 at Rockies, 3 at Diamondbacks

If this six-series stretch after this weekend’s Cubs series doesn’t fix the Mets’ offense, probably nothing will (or at least until Juan Soto returns). As of today, every hitter except for Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Alvarez is a potential buy-low candidate. You don’t have to be in the room to know your league-mate who drafted Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette is panicking.

Not-Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks

St. Louis Cardinals

• 3 at Astros
• 3 at Marlins, 3 vs. Mariners
• 4 at Pirates, 3 vs. Dodgers
• 3 vs. Brewers, 4 at Padres

In exactly three weeks, there will be oodles of “I told you Jordan Walker stinks” tweets. The reality is that Walker is not as good as he’s been these first three weeks and isn’t as bad as he might be the next three weeks. Walker and his teammates will be facing some of the toughest rotations and bullpens in baseball — if he somehow doesn’t cool off, it would be a surprise. We’re not selling high on Walker just because of the next three weeks of matchups, but we should absolutely test the trade waters to see what we can get in return because this is the ideal window. Two weeks ago or two weeks from now, a Walker-for-Lindor offer would be scoffed at. Right now, the other manager might take it.

So, that’s a snapshot of one of the strategies I’ve used over the years for trades and free agent acquisitions. We often assess too much in terms of rest-of-season or the upcoming week. Going the extra mile to review metrics and preview schedules for extreme matchup outliers in a 3-4 week window can prove fruitful and provides small victories that can help add up into a fantasy league title come October.