It’s nearly the end of May. Roughly one third of the way through the regular season. Already, we’ve had our fair share of surprises. New main characters are scattered across your league, or all concentrated on the roster of a sure to be smug top seed.
Whether it’s the manager who added Davis Martin early or the one who was utterly convinced by Jordan Walker and his offseason with Driveline, they’re certainly sitting pretty so far.
For every one of those managers, there’s the one who missed out on Corey Seager in the draft, bought low on the veteran slugger, watched him go hitless in the seven games after trading for him, begged for him to hit the phantom IL, and then knowingly grimaced while moving him to the actual IL at the end of last week due to back tightness.
Once considered anomalies, cutters and sinkers have moved to the forefront of pitchers’ arsenals in 2026. As pitchers develop and pitching staffs look to push the boundaries, increased horizontal and vertical movement on fastball variants has given pitchers yet another edge over hitters. While these pitches have always existed, rather than being utilized as a primary pitch in isolation they are now being used more and more often in relationship to one another. This juxtaposition is what makes them such a challenge for hitters and increasingly popular as an arsenal tool.
So the real question for hitters has become: which fastball is coming? They are being used increasingly interchangeably, thrown from similar release points, with almost identical velocities, which compounds the challenge with each at-bat. From a fantasy perspective, this trend toward a certain profile or archetype of multi-fastball pitcher is one worth monitoring as we consider draft strategy — particularly in the later rounds — or waiver additions, as the never-ending search for value continues.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
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I played it a bit cautiously with the three huge sophomore surges – Nolan McLean, Jacob Misiorowski, and Cam Schlittler – ranking them in the same tier at 33, 35, and 38, respectively. I wasn’t out on any of them, but also was far from chasing, either. I was furthest off McLean who went as the 22nd SP in the NFBC Main Event while Schlittler and Miz went in order at 32, 33. Miz gave me the most pause with his command and control profile leaving me concerned about the depth of his floor without some development. Not only did his already-top-of-the-scale stuff get better (insane 126 STF+ is up 10 pts from last yr) and push his K rate up to an eye-popping 40%, but he lopped three points off his walk rate to just 8%, too! After a walk-free outing last time out, he’s at just a 6% clip over his last four starts totaling 5 BB in 24.3 IP.
He’s all but shelved his changeup, down 8 pts v. lefties at a 3% usage rate. More fastballs and sliders have been more than enough (plus his curve holding steady at 14% usage for 3 legit offerings) against lefty batters as he’s just smothering them to the tune of a .125/.248/.208 slash that somehow still includes 2 HRs (Andrés Giménez, Daulton Varsho) but more importantly is powered by a 35% K-BB. Averaging 99.6 mph on your fastball opens up your margin for error so much and it seems like he hasn’t even had to test those boundaries yet with everything clicking.
Yes, we can also acknowledge the added injury risk that throwing 100 mph that often brings, too, but injury risk had nothing to do with the lack of Miz shares in my portfolio. I mostly worried the walk rate could balloon into the teens and put too much pressure on his BABIP to not exacerbate the issue and give him a 1.30+ WHIP. There was a little bit on a lack of track record, too, but that has gotten less and less important in today’s new pitching landscape. It doesn’t mean you litter your rotation with rookies and sophomores, but shutting out that pool entirely because they’re rookies and sophs is a losing strategy.
Burns was actually in the same tier as those three sophomores, but down at 58 as he was a more active fade. I just felt like he was early stage Hunter Greene but he’s avoided the crippling HR problem his teammate has experienced throughout most of his career, especially early on. Burns sits at just 1.0 HR9 which is plenty fine for his skillset while Greene was up at 1.6 through his first 238 IP. Too often I hear folks use the “he’s so-and-so 2.0” bit when they’re just saying someone is the same as another guy, but Burns is actually Greene 2.0 so far in that he’s a refined version, an improvement, which is how that phrase is meant to be used. It’s still all of 96 IP but he’s got a 22% K-BB, .211 AVG, and 1.0 HR9 compared to Greene at 21%, .235, 1.6 in his first two seasons (in 2.5x as many IP). I can’t wait to watch all 4 of these standout sophomores pitch all summer.
How many of you angrily sat Luzardo after his COL meltdown (at home, mind you, not in Coors) only to miss 6 scoreless at BOS? That is why I just set and forget with him. I signed up for the rollercoaster so until I see skills degradation or any sort of major injury indicator, I’ll take the bad with the good and see how it looks in October.
Sheehan got off to a bumpy start with 4 HRs in his first three outings leading to a 6.60 ERA and a weak 12% K-BB. Of course he was still 2-0 in those outings because of LAD’s incredible support. Since then he has essentially one bad inning at STL (3-run 1st) but otherwise has been the guy people expected when he hit that huge helium wave in mid-March: 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K-BB in 27 IP.
Roupp’s been excellent this year and didn’t even crush you if you took the shot at LAD. Sure, 5.3 IP/4 ER isn’t great, but I understand wanting to play the hot hand and you still got 7 Ks. That is now 4 ER in two of his last three starts, though, and I’m a bit concerned by the multiple walks in each of his last six starts, totaling 18 (12% BB).
Is Bradish going to rug pull us now that we’re jumping back in? Back-to-back excellent starts including 6 IP of 1-hit ball against NYY. His 25% K rate will be tested this week and next with back-to-back start against TBR (there tomorrow, home next wk) and then TOR on the backend of his 2-step. They are the top two teams in K% against righties (TOR 18%, TBR 19%) and the only two teams below 20%.
Detmers isn’t quite a must-start in 10s but remember that 10 of his 17 BB came in two rough starts so he’s been more of a intermittent WHIP risk as opposed to a steady one. He’s still toting a Top 30 K-BB (17%) which goes a long way for me. Plus, it’s a 2-start week so he’s an easy sweep start in weekly moves leagues.
Brown got up to 65 pitches last time out so he could reasonably get to 5 IP this time out, but the likelihood of a sub-5 IP outing does keep him from must-start status in shallow leagues.
Could still be more ERA regression for Montero, but if he can maintain a quality WHIP even as that .225 BABIP pushes back toward his .279 (or higher) then there’s still still streamability here. This is a big 2-step week (at BAL this wknd) and it will help shape the decision for at CHW next week as they have a powerful approach and he lacks the swing-and-miss to take full advantage of their 24% K (3rd vR).
Pure matchup play for Liberatore as PIT sits just 23rd in wOBA vL while their 27% K rate is 3rd. There are no guarantees Libby can take full advantage of that K rate, sitting at just 17%
The Cardinals lefties could give Keller fits (+372 pt. OPS split; .726 vL). The OPS total itself isn’t crazy (42nd, min. 100 PA) but his 15% K% is tied for 5th-lowest and STL has the lowest K% vL (18%).
I’m not completely off Garrett after his season debut Dud but a visit from ATL isn’t the best get-right start.
Zebby was great in his season debut (7 scoreless) and he’s catching HOU in a bit of a lull (24th wOBA L2 wks), but it’s not enough to win me back yet. He had just a 22% K rate in Triple-A and showed just a 7% SwStr during this debut. A capable start here will drive confidence in next week’s 2-step (at CHW, at PIT).
Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.
Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.
Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.
Week 8 Overview
Last week, only four teams played seven games — the Dodgers, Giants, Astros, and Mariners. I liked how the matchups lined up for shallow-league, strong-side platoon streamers, Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone. Raley hit .350 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and a stolen base. Canzone was mostly a disappointment, providing the bulk of his production with one swing of the bat — a grand slam on Tuesday. He had 6 RBI on the week, but went 4-19 (.211). The “sneaky” Jesus Rodriguez play did not work out for deeper-league managers. He went 0-11 with 1 RBI and 1 SB. Daniel Susac was activated on Friday and should earn 60-plus percent of the starts behind the plate for now. Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages managed a meager .115 average for the week, but drove in six batters. We enter Week 9 with Pages leading the majors in RBI (41), one ahead of Liam Hicks. What a world.
Similar to Stuff+’s strong correlation with strikeout rate, Pitching+ sport a -0.506 correlation with ERA among pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings from 2021 to 2025. That means the higher the Pitching+, the lower the ERA. The correlation isn’t quite as strong as Stuff+, but still quite meaningful. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers that have enjoyed the biggest Pitching+ gains and suffered the largest losses this year. We would expect ERA to move in the same direction, but that’s not always the case when lady luck is involved.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
