Three Starting Pitchers Who Lost Stuff and Command

I’ll often wonder and speculate on what’s happening and why, without researching the idea. Somehow, most of my interesting ideas tend to happen when I’m driving or doing something where I can’t stop and research the data. One of those ideas was to examine which starting pitchers have lost stuff and command in 2026. compared to 2025. That said, here’s a look at the starting pitchers who threw 20 innings with a three-point decline (we rounded, so you’ll see a difference of 2.5 or more) in their Stuff+ and Location+ in 2026.

Though these pitchers have lower Stuff+ and Location+ grades, they might not remain that way for the rest of the season. Several of these pitchers make sense since they often relied upon command. We can toss out Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet (injuries). Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta, Parker Messick, and Ranger Suarez have been showing above-average command numbers in both seasons.

Whenever a starting pitcher is struggling or succeeding, we want to understand the why and try to determine whether the results have been sustainable. This is a beefy one, with a deep look into three starting pitchers who lost significant stuff and command in 2026. 

Shane Baz, SP, Orioles

We’ve seen Shane Baz’s stuff grades fall over five points with a slight dip in his command grades. After having some home run issues in 2025, Baz’s xERA and xFIP hinted at ratio regression. Though Baz’s home run rates dropped in 2026, there has also been a skills decline, and that is showing up in a single-digit K-BB% (9.2%). 

The control (37% ball rate) and strikeout skills (8.3% swinging-strike rate) aligned with the K-BB% plummeting from his 14.7% career average. For context, Baz had a 34% ball rate and an 11.6% swinging-strike rate last season. It’s not typically helpful to have worse control and fewer whiffs in a pitcher’s profile. You can survive that if you’re generating groundballs or weak contact, but that hasn’t been the case for Baz. 

Baz has been throwing a new pitch: a sinker. The sinker has an induced movement profile similar to the four-seamer, with four more inches of drop and five additional inches of arm-side fade. He has thrown them 11.7% of the time to right-handed hitters in 2026. That coincides with Baz increasing the cutter usage to 35.7% in 2026 from 14.3% in 2025 against righties. Meanwhile, Baz cut his four-seam percentage by 20 points in 2026 to 25.8% to right-handed hitters. So far, Baz’s sinker has been generating weak contact (.272 wOBA, .172 xwOBA) and groundballs (54.5%). 

He pounds the zone with his sinker, throwing it in the zone 62.7% of the time. It’s a pitch-to-contact type offering, with opposing hitters making contact 96.1% of the time. We might question some of the sinker locations, with some being in the heart of the zone. What’s wild is that opposing hitters mostly make contact against the sinker in the upper third of the zone, with the heatmap shrinking for SLG per pitch, as seen in the visual below.

Baz’s sinker locations against right-handed hitters have been significantly different than his four-seam locations, which have been more toward the outside corner of the plate, as seen in the visual below. The four-seam was being hit hard against right-handed hitters in 2025 (.352 wOBA, .361 xwOBA), so it made sense to cut the usage in 2026. The results against the four-seam when facing right-handed hitters have been slightly better (.315 wOBA, .295 xwOBA) in 2026. 

Interestingly, Baz’s four-seamer has been thrown lower in the zone against right-handed hitters, somewhat more low and away from them. That said, Baz used to locate the four-seamers in the upper part of the zone in 2025, which can be optimal. It makes sense to see Baz’s four-seam Location+ go from 103 (2025) to 88 (2026).

Baz’s Cutter, Knuckle Curve, and Changeup

Let’s shift to the cutter, which leads Baz’s arsenal against right-handed hitters. The Orioles love cutters, throwing them at the eighth-highest percentage in 2026. Baz’s cutter movement profile added two inches of drop and an inch of glove-side movement in 2026 compared to 2025. The cutter locations have moved slightly more toward the heart of the plate and lower in the zone in 2026, as seen below.

Specifically, Baz’s cutter was located 1.3 inches more toward the heart of the plate and 2.3 inches lower in the zone against right-handed hitters in 2026 compared to 2025. That’s led to more groundballs with 50% in 2026, up from 37.7% in 2025, aligning with the improved weak contact. Baz’s cutter allowed a .271 wOBA (.284 xwOBA) in 2026 compared to a .325 wOBA (.283 xwOBA) in 2025 against righties. Like his other pitches, Baz’s cutter has given up more contact (82.9%) while losing whiffs (8.9% swinging-strike rate) in 2026 compared to the 2025 contact (76.3%) and swinging-strike rates (12.5% swinging-strike rate).

Historically, Baz’s knuckle curve and changeup were effective offerings against left-handed hitters. Unfortunately, lefties have been hitting the knuckle curveball harder in 2026 (.324 wOBA, .272 xwOBA) compared to 2025 (.255 wOBA, .214 xwOBA). That’s mainly because Baz has been locating his knuckle curve more toward the heart of the plate, with some going low and below in 2026, as seen in the heatmaps below.

More significantly, Baz’s changeup has been blasted while struggling to elicit whiffs against left-handed hitters. That’s been evident in Baz’s changeup, allowing a .332 wOBA (.528 xwOBA) in 2026, up from 2025 (.270 wOBA, .245 xwOBA). Baz’s changeup generated a 13.8% swinging-strike rate against left-handed hitters in 2025, plummeting to 2.9% in 2026. 

Though Baz’s changeup’s vertical movement has remained similar throughout his career, it hasn’t been fading as much in 2026 (14.2 inches) as it did in 2025 (16.7 inches) to left-handed hitters. Furthermore, Baz’s changeup spin rate dropped by over 200 RPM in 2026 compared to 2025, though that’s closer to 2024. With worse results against the changeup, it’s logical to expect his locations to be problematic or different. That’s been partly true, seeing his changeup locations being more varied.

Baz’s changeup has been thrown over six inches lower with more than 4.5 inches toward the heart of the plate in 2026 compared to 2025. It doesn’t seem to be a pitch he commands well because of the varying heat maps showing the horizontal and vertical locations relative to the plate. 

Baz’s changeup never graded well in Stuff+, with a career-low 75 Stuff+ in 2026. Meanwhile, Baz’s command metrics agree, with an 86 Location+ in 2026. It makes sense to see Baz lower the changeup usage against lefties (12%) in 2026 from 2025 (22.4%), but it leaves him with the knuckle curve as the only effective pitch against opposite-handed batters. 

The theme for Baz seems to be looking to pitch to contact, but that hasn’t served him well in 2026. Baz’s stuff and command have been more mediocre in 2026, so he might not be able to get away with it when throwing his pitches in the zone. We like the sinker and pitch mix approach to right-handed hitters, but Baz needs to make some tweaks to his approach to lefties. Maybe Baz should throw more sinkers to left-handed hitters rather than changeups to generate weak contact. 

If you’re still optimistic about Baz, bench and hold, but can’t blame fantasy managers who want to cut him.

Andrew Abbott, SP, Reds

Most of the expected ERA metrics suggested that Andrew Abbott was fortunate in 2025. Interestingly, Abbott’s strand rate only dropped by 3.5 percentage points and he is still limiting home runs (9.7% HR/FB) in 2026. However, we’ve seen Abbott generate more groundballs (41.7%), which would be a career high. The biggest issue for Abbott has been his control.

Abbott had a 33% ball rate in 2025, which has increased to 38% in 2026. If doesn’t bode well that Abbott has struggled with control and also lost whiffs, evidenced by an 8.6% swinging-strike rate in 2026, down from 10.9% (2025). Abbott had a strong 15.5% K-BB% in 2025, but that less command and fewer whiffs have dropped that to a lowly and worrisome 4.9% in 2026.

I’ve been wondering if pitchers that rely on command have been hurt more often with the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) System, especially if they’re hovering in the shadow areas of the zone. The visual below shows the data from the Heart (H), Shadow (S), and Chase (C) areas of the zone.

Abbott was throwing 45.7% of his pitches in the shadow area of the zone in 2025. Opposing hitters were making contact in the shadow part of the zone 77.5% of the time last season. In 2026, he has been throwing fewer pitches in the shadow area in 2026 (41.8%) while allowing more contact (83.2% contact rate). When we filter further into the shadow area of the zone, there are sections of the inner (SI) and outer (SO) parts of the shadow zone. 

Opposing hitters have been making significantly more contact against Abbott’s arsenal when he throws his pitches in the shadow-inside (84.8%) and shadow-outside (80.3%) in 2026. That’s a four-point jump from the shadow-inside contact rate (80.4%) with a more than a seven-point increase in the shadow-outside contact rate (80.3%) in 2025. That can be seen visually below. 

It seems that opposing hitters know Abbott likes to live in the shadow areas of the zone (and inside the zone in general), so they’re attacking in the heart and on the edges. Or it could be something fluky that could regress if Abbott’s command improves.

Abbott’s Arm Angle, Curveball, Changeup, and Four-Seamer

The other main difference for Abbott is his higher arm angle (52 degrees) in 2026, up four degrees from 2025 (48 degrees). Abbott’s vertical release has point remained similar in 2026 to 2025, with his horizontal release point moving one inch closer toward his midline. Typically, we see significant changes in release points when the arm angle changes. Unsurprisingly, we’ve seen Abbott’s pitch movement profiles via the sweeper and curveball changed with the new arm angle.

Abbott’s curveball added over four inches of downward movement while maintaining its glove-side sweep. Meanwhile, Abbott’s sweeper added over five inches of drop and two inches of glove-side horizontal movement. Theoretically, Abbott’s sweeper and curveball should generate weak contact and whiffs. Unsurprisingly, with Abbott’s overall swinging-strike rate falling, his curveball and sweeper swinging-strike rate declined by 4-5 percentage points in 2026. 

Abbott’s curveball has been allowing weaker contact (.147 wOBA) in 2026, though the .328 xwOBA against right-handed hitters suggests some regression. The surface results have been better via the curveball against righties in 2025 (.360 wOBA), yet the .292 xwOBA aligns with expected results from 2026. Abbott’s pitch mix against right-handed hitters remained similar over the past two seasons, though he located his curveball more toward the outside corner in 2026, as seen in the heatmaps below.

The command numbers suggested Abbott located his curveball better in 2025 (104 Location+) than in 2026 (98 Location+). However, the heat maps suggest he is putting the curve in a more logical location against right-handed hitters. 

Abbott’s changeup has been eliciting more whiffs in 2026 against right-handed hitters, up to a 19.6% swinging-strike rate against righties in 2026 compared to 14% in 2025. The changeup’s results have been worse against righties in 2026 (.345 wOBA, .275 xwOBA), which flipped from the 2025 outcomes (.253 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

Abbott’s changeup doesn’t stand out from a movement profile perspective, but he appears to locate them lower in the zone while continuing to be toward the outer part of the plate for right-handed hitters. Specifically, Abbott’s changeup has been located 3.7 inches lower in the zone in 2026 compared to 2025 against righties, as seen below. 

That likely helps Abbott’s changeup elicit whiffs, as he throws them less often in the zone by nearly 10 percentage points (34.4% zone rate) in 2026. Interestingly, Abbott’s changeup Location+ has been worse in 2026 (89) compared to 2025 (107), though we might prefer the additional whiffs from his offspeed pitch. That’s a significant command grade difference for Abbott’s changeup in 2026. 

The visual below shows the four-seamer heatmaps and how Abbott cuts the four-seam more in 2026 than in 2025.

Besides Abbott’s curveball and changeup, showing significantly lower command grades, his four-seamer dropped by five points in Location+. From Abbott’s higher arm angle, he seems to be cutting his four-seamer more by losing two inches of arm-side fade in 2026 compared to 2025. Specifically, Abbott’s four-seamer has been thrown nearly three inches (2.9) toward the middle of the plate and over two inches lower in the zone against right-handed hitters in 2026 vs. 2025. Unsurprisingly, right-handed hitters have been crushing the four-seamer, given his .382 wOBA (.436 xwOBA) in 2026 compared to 2025 (.282 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). 

Abbott’s sweeper is the only pitch with an above-average stuff grade with worse command among the three main pitches (four-seam, curveball, and changeup). We found several reasons to explain what’s going wrong with Abbott. Unfortunately, there might be too much to fix in the short term to find better results unless there’s flukiness in his location and command. Maybe Abbott’s command struggles are related to the ABS System, especially in the shadow areas, which is something to revisit in the future. 

Bailey Ober, SP, Twins

The results have been solid for Bailey Ober so far, though there’s a slim margin for error for a pitcher with a low K-BB%. We’ve seen Ober’s K-BB% sit around 20% in 2023 and 2024, then decline to 14.3% (2025), before 10.2% K-BB% in 2026. He had decent control with a 33% ball rate in his career. However, Ober’s control has been slightly worse with a 35% ball rate in 2026. That, plus the continual decline in Ober’s swinging-strike rate, isn’t a recipe for success.

As seen in the visual below, Ober’s strikeout skills have gradually declined, especially in the latter half of the 2025 season.

Ober’s Changeup Command

Ober’s changeup has lost tons of whiffs, with a 22.7% swinging-strike rate in 2024, 15.7% in 2025, and 11.8% in 2026. When a pitcher loses whiffs from a specific pitch, we can speculate that Ober’s changeup movement profile might have lost downward movement. However, Ober’s changeup maintained its downward movement, while adding 1.5 inches of arm-side fade in 2026 (19.4 inches) compared to 2025 (17.9 inches). 

Ober has been throwing his changeup more often against right-handed hitters in 2026 (29.9%), up from 2025 (22.7%). It has led to positive results, given Ober’s changeup allowing a .248 wOBA (.250 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2026. That’s been slightly better than Ober’s changeup results against righties in 2025 (.283 wOBA), though the .263 xwOBA says it’s about the same.

Similarly, Ober’s changeup usage increased to 41.6% against lefties, rising from 34-36% in his previous two seasons. Unlike Ober’s changeup results against right-handed hitters, the changeup allows more hard contact against lefties (.327 wOBA), especially evident in the .391 xwOBA in 2026, as seen in the visual below. For context, Ober’s changeup allowed a .253 wOBA (.241 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .161 wOBA (.201 xwOBA) in 2024. That aligns with the trend of Ober’s best pitch losing effectiveness.

Though Ober’s changeup command hasn’t been elite, he typically has an average Location+. Unfortunately, Ober’s changeup went from a 107 Location+ in 2024 to 92 in 2025 and is now all the way down at 76 in 2026. Against left-handed hitters, Ober’s changeup has been thrown two inches higher and 2.3 inches closer toward the middle of the plate. In the heat maps below, Ober has been throwing his changeup more toward the middle of the plate against left-handed hitters in 2026 compared to being more low and away in 2025. 

The visual below shows how the changeup heatmaps have changed against left-handed hitters in 2025 and 2026.

We’ve seen similar location issues against right-handed hitters via the changeup in 2025 and 2026. Ober has been throwing his changeup more in the heart of the zone in 2026 instead of toward the inside part of the plate in 2025 against right-handed hitters. Specifically, Ober has been throwing his changeup three inches higher in the zone and over four inches toward the middle of the plate, as seen in the visual below.

Ober’s Slider and Sweeper

Besides Ober’s changeup, he struggled to command his slider. Since Ober throws a slider and sweeper, we might speculate that the slider Stuff+ and Location+ refer to the slider, with the curveball data being the sweeper. That’s mainly because sweepers can profile similarly to curveballs from a movement standpoint. Regardless of Ober’s Location+ numbers via the slider and sweeper, the heatmaps and outcomes can paint a picture for us. 

Interestingly, Ober’s slider has been effective against left-handed hitters. His slider allows a .181 wOBA (.123 xwOBA) against lefties in 2026, significantly better than his results in 2025 (.438 wOBA, .372 xwOBA). The heatmaps below show Ober locating his slider farther toward the outside part of the plate against left-handed hitters in 2026 compared to 2025. It might not be entirely evident in the heatmaps below, but Ober’s slider has been located over 10 inches farther away in 2026 than in 2025. More notably, Ober’s slider locations weren’t as concentrated on the heatmaps in 2026.

Meanwhile, Ober’s sweeper has been his best pitch for whiffs (19.8% swinging-strike rate) and weak contact (.109 wOBA, .191 xwOBA) in 2026 against right-handed hitters. Typically, sweepers tend to be most effective against same-handed hitters, so it’s an optimistic note for Ober. That’s consistent with Ober’s sweeper whiffs and weak contact, evidenced by his 21.9% swinging-strike and a .264 wOBA (.217 xwOBA) against righties in 2025. 

Ober’s profile has become riskier with fewer whiffs and a career-worst in command (90 Location+) without any uptick in stuff. Be cautious if you’re relying upon Ober and expecting a bounce-back to his prime seasons.