As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original catcher rankings were posted 1/26 and the most recent update is 2/27.

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As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original middle infield rankings were posted 1/25 and the most recent update is 2/27.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original 1B/U rankings were posted 1/23 and the most recent update is 2/26.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original catcher rankings were posted 1/23 and the most recent update is 2/26.

Read the rest of this entry »

I have done tiered Ottoneu rankings for FanGraphs Points leagues for a few years now, and every year I write a version of the same intro over and over again. This year, I am just going to write this up, link back to it, and then for the intro to each ranking, I can talk a bit about the position overall. For today, no rankings just yet. Just a little discussion of methodology and other such things. Let’s do a little FAQ.

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Here are my rest of season SP rankings. Let’s discuss in the comments if you have further questions about anyone. Obviously standings and situation will change how you manage these pitchers. If you’re chasing, open your window up a bit more… if you’re protecting, don’t hesitate to sit a Top 30 guy v. LAD or ATL (as a random example).

I will still have the Daily SP Chart running, too, so as things change with guys down the stretch, I’ll be able to adjust there.

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I ranked all trade deadline-affected batters (Paul is doing the pitchers) by how much their 2023 redraft league fantasy value increased or decreased (NOT OVERALL VALUE). The list includes every traded hitter (back to July 21st) and those guys who saw changes in value but stayed with their team.

Value Up

Jeimer Candelario (WSN->CHC): Team and park upgrade along with him playing first base.

Jeimer Candelario will play 1b on a regular basis with the Cubs, per David Ross.

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) August 1, 2023

Carlos Santana (PIT->MIL): Milwaukee’s first base job is his. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been too long without an updated SP ranking. I do the SP Chart Monday-Friday, but I know many of y’all want to see everyone ranked 1-150. I decided to do it in the form of my SP Chart, giving a recommendation for 10-, 12-, and 15-team leagues which is a stand-in for shallow, medium, deep setups. An “x” in the particular category means they are pretty much a no doubt start in that format or at least in the team streamer range meaning I don’t cut them when not starting them. If they don’t have the “x” for a particular league type, they are fringe streamers and I’m unlikely to go for them outside of a nice 2-step or a really spicy 1-start against the right opponent.

I only wrote comments for select guys with most of the skips being on the top and low ends as you don’t really need me to tell you that Cole is awesome or than Lyles isn’t so awesome. If you have further questions about anyone, leave a comment! As for IL guys, I took liberty with some who are on the cusp of returning, but made some arbitrary cutoffs. For example, Max Fried is due back later this month, but his ETA is still about 2 wks from now and a lot can change so he was left off. He’s also an easy one because he’s an auto start once he returns.

Next update will be around mid-August for the stretch run.

OK, without further ado:

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I’ll wrap up my 2023 positional rankings with a look at the relief pitching market. You can find links to the rest of my rankings as well as Chad’s below. And a reminder, if you want a big picture view, you can see our ordinal Ottoneu rankings on the FanGraphs Fantasy Rankings Board.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/IP is the basis. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

NOTE: For the P/IP projection you see below, I’ve subtracted out points for saves and holds. Those two categories are notoriously fickle and extremely difficult to project. Evaluating relief pitchers based on their raw skills alone has usually worked out for me; teams generally give their highest leverage opportunities to their best bullpen arms, so the saves and holds should flow from those pitchers with the best skills. I’ve also included a column for each pitcher’s projected role based on the Roster Resource Depth Charts. Between those two factors, you should have a pretty solid grasp of how any given reliever should be valued.

Rather than pick a handful of guys to write up like in my previous rankings articles, I’m just going to give some general thoughts about building a bullpen in Ottoneu. There are two competing considerations when building your strategy: relievers are the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

While I’m not as extreme as Chad in my devaluation of relief pitchers, I’ve rarely rostered any of the elite closers in my time playing Ottoneu. Generally, I’ll allocate around $25-$30 of my salary cap to fill out my bullpen and that’s usually accomplished by picking a couple of guys from the middle tiers and then a bunch of $1-$3 fliers that I can churn through during the season.

Like I said above, skills really matter because teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations. That means Ottoneu Points and 4×4 owners can ignore the closer carousel game that 5×5 players are tied to. A pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order matters, but it should be a secondary consideration when you’re looking for potential breakouts on the waiver wire.