Outlier Offenses in Mid-Term Windows, The Finale
This is the fourth and final installment of the Outliers series. In mid-April, I introduced the process of reviewing matchups and schedules in three-week windows to identify team offense outliers. The basic premise is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into shorter timeframes. At that time, the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets were highlighted as positive offensive outliers. Over the next 3.5 weeks, the White Sox scored the fourth-most runs and ranked top three in ISO and wRC+, while the Mets were a huge letdown. In mid-May, the featured offenses, based on matchups, were the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. The Rangers’ schedule helped them to score the 12th most runs over those weeks. The Giants, who were the worst offense in the Majors at that time, took advantage of their incredible schedule and turned into the best offense in baseball over the next month: third in runs and first in ISO, SLG, and wRC+. In mid-June, I recommended targeting hitters from the Athletics and Colorado Rockies due to their advantageous “on-paper” schedule. From June 11 through July 5, the Rockies were the most productive offense in baseball, averaging a league-best 6.43 runs per game, with the highest ISO (.233), and the only offense with a .500+ slugging percentage. The Athletics were seventh in total runs (118) at a rate of 5.36 per game, despite being without Brent Rooker.
This final review of a 3.5-week window will take us through Sunday, September 20. Technically, we could extend this through the final week of the season, but it’s better not to, as teams will be shutting down players and playoff teams will be resting some of their players. First, let’s review how pitching staffs have performed over the last six weeks and highlight the potentially fruitful matchups which should lead us to our offensive outliers.
