Paul Sporer’s July Starting Pitcher Rankings

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been too long without an updated SP ranking. I do the SP Chart Monday-Friday, but I know many of y’all want to see everyone ranked 1-150. I decided to do it in the form of my SP Chart, giving a recommendation for 10-, 12-, and 15-team leagues which is a stand-in for shallow, medium, deep setups. An “x” in the particular category means they are pretty much a no doubt start in that format or at least in the team streamer range meaning I don’t cut them when not starting them. If they don’t have the “x” for a particular league type, they are fringe streamers and I’m unlikely to go for them outside of a nice 2-step or a really spicy 1-start against the right opponent.

I only wrote comments for select guys with most of the skips being on the top and low ends as you don’t really need me to tell you that Cole is awesome or than Lyles isn’t so awesome. If you have further questions about anyone, leave a comment! As for IL guys, I took liberty with some who are on the cusp of returning, but made some arbitrary cutoffs. For example, Max Fried is due back later this month, but his ETA is still about 2 wks from now and a lot can change so he was left off. He’s also an easy one because he’s an auto start once he returns.

Next update will be around mid-August for the stretch run.

OK, without further ado:

2023 Post-ASB SP Rankings
RK PITCHER TM 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB NOTE
1 Spencer Strider ATL x x x 104.2 3.44 1.09 31% Just the best IP-for-IP guy going and even if they throw him a few 5-and-dives to manage IP, he has excellent support for Ws
2 Gerrit Cole NYY x x x 117 2.85 1.12 19%
3 Luis Castillo SEA x x x 112.1 2.96 1.03 21%
4 Zac Gallen ARI x x x 118.1 3.04 1.05 22%
5 Shohei Ohtani LAA x x x 105.1 3.50 1.12 22%
6 Shane McClanahan TBR x x x 96 2.53 1.17 16%
7 Framber Valdez HOU x x x 111 2.51 1.05 20%
8 Joe Ryan MIN x x x 107 3.70 1.01 25%
9 Kevin Gausman TOR x x x 115.2 3.03 1.13 26% Splitter toting a 46% K but also .402 BABIP… bad luck or pitch incosistency resulting in too many hangers?
10 Zack Wheeler PHI x x x 104.1 4.05 1.19 22%
11 Clayton Kershaw LAD x x x 95.1 2.55 1.05 21%
12 Carlos Rodón NYY x x x 10.1 5.23 1.16 9% High slot for someone w/just 10 IP so far but I’m putting him back in the rotation everywhere
13 Tyler Glasnow TBR x x x 41.2 4.10 1.22 27%
14 Pablo López MIN x x x 111 3.89 1.09 24%
15 Corbin Burnes MIL x x x 113.1 3.73 1.11 16%
16 Max Scherzer NYM x x x 87.2 4.31 1.23 21% I’m a little tepid on the Mets aces given their first halves, but nowhere near sitting them and wouldn’t be surprised if both are Top 10 in the 2H
17 Justin Verlander NYM x x x 75 3.72 1.23 12%
18 Aaron Nola PHI x x x 119 4.39 1.11 19% Elements are still there, evidenced by his 3.85 SIERA, but this wouldn’t be the first time he’s languished through a >4.00 ERA despite skills to the contrary
19 Jesús Luzardo MIA x x x 109.1 3.29 1.13 23%
20 George Kirby SEA x x x 107.2 3.09 1.04 19%
21 Zach Eflin TBR x x x 102.1 3.25 0.99 22% I believe in him, I believe in the Rays, and I’m happy to check in to see if anyone is looking to sell high and will take something more SP40-45 range of value
22 Logan Webb SFG x x x 126 3.14 1.11 21%
23 Joe Musgrove SDP x x x 79.1 3.29 1.15 19%
24 Sandy Alcantara MIA x x x 120.1 4.64 1.26 13% One of the bigger 1H disappointments and yet I’m just not convinced he’s anywhere close to a near-5.00 ERA so I’m not moving off him much
25 Kyle Bradish BAL x x x 84 3.32 1.18 16% Not sure we’ve seen the best of him yet this yr especially the way he’s running lately: 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 20% K-BB in his L8
26 Blake Snell SDP x x x 98 2.85 1.22 20%
27 Justin Steele CHC x x x 91.1 2.56 1.06 17%
28 Julio Urías LAD x x x 70.1 4.35 1.11 19%
29 José Berríos TOR x x x 113.1 3.41 1.16 16% Never really as bad as last year’s 5.23 ERA as the .328 BABIP really hampered him; a 50-pt drop probably has him a little over his skies to the positive now, but still an easy start
30 Sonny Gray MIN x x x 99.2 2.89 1.27 15%
31 Yu Darvish SDP x x x 91 4.65 1.26 18%
32 Mitch Keller PIT x x x 117 3.31 1.12 20% Major fastball improvement and the shiny new cutter is driving the K surge (+7 pts) despite the same exact 9% SwStr from last yr
33 Reid Detmers LAA x x x 85.2 4.31 1.28 21%
34 Nathan Eovaldi TEX x x x 117.2 2.83 1.02 17% Everything working his way right now, including an AL-high 117 IP, but he’s only eclipsed 180 IP 2x in his career
35 James Paxton BOS x x x 56 2.73 0.98 23% Sort of a lefty Eovaldi where the talent is never really in question, it’s always about the health piece… he’s a lineup mainstay when upright
36 Dylan Cease CHW x x x 102.2 4.30 1.34 18% Velo dip (-1.2 mph) & BABIP regression (+56 pts) have stung him w/2+ H/9 added to the bottom line; was rolling (2.65 in 6 GS) before final start of half (11 H/5 ER v. STL)
37 Lucas Giolito CHW x x x 112.1 3.45 1.14 18%
38 Logan Gilbert SEA x x x 108.1 3.66 0.98 20% Early Ks look like a hot run more than a skill change: 31% in F7; 21% in L11… Put Away rate was excellent early but hasn’t held
39 Tyler Wells BAL x x x 104.2 3.18 0.93 20% HR issue remains prominent but with premium control (6%) and insane hit suppression (.202 BABIP, 6.3 H) has him in the Top 15 so far; expect some regression but still an easy start
40 Bobby Miller LAD x x x 44 4.50 1.23 15% Core skills and raw stuff are excellent despite hiccups in the results; after 112 IP last yr, shouldn’t have to be managed too tightly to make it to the finish line
41 Freddy Peralta MIL x x x 92 4.70 1.30 17% Command & control issues over his L10 have been the culprit behind a 5.79 ERA: BB up 3 pts to 11%, HR sky-high at 2.1, 6+ IP just 3x
42 Andrew Abbott CIN x x x 41.2 2.38 1.03 21% Lack of command & control will breed volatility and a tough home park can exacerbate those issues; basically a younger, lefty Cease or Peralta
43 Bryan Woo SEA x x x 34.2 3.63 1.07 24% A Main Event bargain bc of 2 IP/6 ER debut the day before bids: only went >$100 in 1 of 41 lgs and then maxxed at $52 in the remaining 12 the following wk
44 Brayan Bello BOS x x x 86 3.14 1.20 15% Put together a 2.52 ERA in L13 starts of the 1H including 7 straight QS
45 Bailey Ober MIN x x x 82.2 2.61 0.97 19%
46 Hunter Brown HOU x x x 94 4.12 1.33 20% Still has a 24% K-BB in his L4 where the ERA is 7.23 in 19 IP; was a tough run on the schedule: NYM, at LAD (the lone good start of the 4), at TEX, SEA
47 Shane Bieber CLE x x x 117 3.77 1.25 13% Thought he had a decent shot to recover some K% w/last yr’s 14% SwStr, but it’s sunk to 11%; still delivering plenty of good innings, just don’t overrate the name value
48 Braxton Garrett MIA x x x 92.1 3.70 1.14 23% Strong command and control can generate strikeouts even if the stuff isn’t off the charts (87 Stuff+)
49 Cristian Javier HOU x x x 91.1 4.34 1.22 15%
50 Charlie Morton ATL x x x 104 3.20 1.36 16%
51 Marcus Stroman CHC x x x 112.2 2.96 1.11 13%
52 Tarik Skubal DET x x x 8 0.00 0.50 32% Velo up and stuff looks nasty early on, but it’s just 8 IP so while he’s back in the lineup everywhere for me, I understand if others play it a bit more cautiously
53 Bryce Miller SEA x x 59 3.97 0.95 19%
54 Eury Pérez MIA x x 53.1 2.36 1.09 21% Obviously being sidelined right not a start anywhere, but now he becomes a tough decision on whether or not to hold in shallow formats
55 Jordan Montgomery STL x x 103 3.23 1.22 16%
56 Lance Lynn CHW x x 103 6.03 1.42 20% Showing enough upside to stay firmly on my radar and I’m still starting more often than not in most formats (37% K, 6% BB in L5)
57 Chris Bassitt TOR x x 109.2 4.19 1.23 14%
58 Gavin Williams CLE x x 24.2 4.01 1.09 12%
59 Reese Olson DET x x 33.1 4.05 0.99 20% Back in the rotation; needs to improve w/runners on to maximize his quality stuff (<70% LOB in 2021-23 minors & just 58% in 33 MLB IP)
60 Bryce Elder ATL x x 106 2.97 1.20 11% Has obliterated his 4.39 career SIERA so far w/a 3.04 ERA as he’s been fantastic w/an 81% LOB but he’s still not an unchallenged start in all formats as regression sets in
61 Clarke Schmidt NYY x x 88 4.40 1.39 16% Struggled to find any consistency through mid-May (6.30 ERA in 9 GS) but has turned a corner w/a 2.81 ERA in his last 48 IP, though he’s reached 6 IP just once
62 Kutter Crawford BOS x x 61.1 4.11 1.16 18% Hasn’t exactly followed Schmidt’s pattern, but similar situation where he took some time find his footing and now looks like a strong 2H option
63 Taj Bradley TBR x x 61.1 5.43 1.39 23%
64 Jon Gray TEX x x 99 3.45 1.15 12%
65 Eduardo Rodriguez DET x x 76.2 2.70 1.00 21% 8 total Ks in his first 3 starts followed by 72 in his L10 (31% K rate); could be traded to a contender to improve lineup & bullpen support, too
66 Tanner Bibee CLE x x 70 3.34 1.29 15%
67 Michael Wacha SDP x x 85.2 2.84 1.07 14% Slated to return very soon, but stay tuned for news before getting the veteran righty back in the lineup
68 Aaron Civale CLE x x 57.2 2.65 1.08 12%
69 Domingo Germán NYY x x 91.2 4.32 1.07 17% Part of that group of arms with a good K-BB but persistent HR issue: Wells is the best of the bunch right now, with German, Heaney, and Kikuchi showing what his downside can be
70 J.P. France HOU x x 70.2 3.31 1.26 10% Hasn’t reached 5 Ks in any of his L5 outings (12% K) which makes him difficult to trust but it’s hard to pass up his strong ratios
71 Kodai Senga NYM x x 89.2 3.31 1.28 17% I worry that the ugly control can cause some issues down the stretch, especially if he deals with any fatigue in his 1st MLB season
72 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI x x 95 3.22 1.14 16%
73 Cristopher Sánchez PHI x x 30.1 3.26 0.99 19% One of my favorite 2H breakout picks; might be trading some command for control w/a 4% BB but 1.5 HR in 30 MLB IP, love the talent & he’s a team streamer for me everywhere
74 Kenta Maeda MIN x x 36 5.50 1.39 19%
75 Seth Lugo SDP x x 63.2 3.39 1.24 17%
76 Taijuan Walker PHI x x 96.1 4.02 1.25 12%
77 Ranger Suárez PHI x x 62 3.77 1.34 14%
78 Yusei Kikuchi TOR x x 93.1 4.24 1.29 18% He’s basically downside Tyler Wells as he has less command & control, a worse HR problem, and tougher home park… sit him in the hardest matchups
79 Graham Ashcraft CIN x x 87.2 5.95 1.56 7% OK I’m doing it, I’m buying back in; big spring breakout was a stone-cold flop w/a 7.17 ERA thru 14 starts, but 3 straight 1 ER outings have my attention (though just 5% K-BB in them)
80 Emmet Sheehan LAD x x 20.2 4.35 1.06 10% Rookie arm flashing some impressive stuff, though he might not be in the rotation thru the 2H after just 88 IP last yr and 74 IP so far this yr
81 JP Sears OAK x 99.2 3.97 1.04 17% If you’re chasing Ws, he’s obviously a tough start, but he can be your guy if you just want some quality innings
82 Tony Gonsolin LAD x 67.2 3.86 1.12 10%
83 Andrew Heaney TEX x 86 4.71 1.34 15% A 4 pt. jump in BB rate puts him on the outside of that little strong K-BB/poor HR guys as his K-BB is the worst since 2015
84 Luis Severino NYY x 42.2 7.38 1.80 9%
85 Michael Kopech CHW x 86.2 4.47 1.41 12%
86 Nick Pivetta BOS x 69 4.83 1.29 17% Getting a chance at SP w/Whitlock & Houck out; while we’ve been down this road a million times, it’s bc he’s a talented-but-inconsistent arm (2.87 ERA, 34% K-BB in L16 IP)
87 Alex Cobb SFG x 89.2 2.91 1.34 17% Massive BABIP continues to yield a ton of hits, but the 17% K-BB keeps me coming back and starting him where I can take on the WHIP risk
88 Dean Kremer BAL x 104 4.59 1.33 17%
89 Logan Allen CLE x 62.1 3.47 1.44 14% Avoided the repercussions of that elevated WHIP before his demotion, but headed back up and will still be a nice team streamer in many formats
90 Dane Dunning TEX x 92 2.84 1.13 9% He’s one of my heart-over-head guys… I know the metrics aren’t super strong, but I just have more trust for him than a 9% K-BB would normally suggest
91 Jack Flaherty STL x 92.2 4.27 1.56 10% I wanttt to believe & the 5 starts of 0-1 ER over his L7 are very encouraging, but the other 2 were 10 H/6 ER duds resulting in a 3.02 ERA/1.55 WHIP over the 42 IP
92 Ryne Nelson ARI x 99.1 4.98 1.44 9%
93 Josiah Gray WSN x 100.1 3.41 1.44 10% 2 HR In 4 of his L7 is concerning, but 0 HR in the other 3… needs the ERA to cover his ugly WHIP and low W probability
94 Michael Lorenzen DET x 87 4.03 1.14 13% The All-Star righty has sliced his BB rate nearly in half to 6%, making him a WHIP asset despite the modest ERA (well, modest for shallow formats)
95 MacKenzie Gore WSN x 89.2 4.42 1.46 18% 3 duds over the L6 where 5 HR in 14 IP have sunk him; 2 pt improvement on BB rate has helped, but control issues still loom along w/this elevated HR
96 Wade Miley MIL x 67.2 3.06 1.15 10%
97 Kyle Hendricks CHC x 58 3.57 1.09 11%
98 Griffin Canning LAA x 74 4.62 1.20 16% Just 3 HR-free starts expose his biggest problem while a strong 23% K rate has fueled 10 starts of 3 or fewer ER so there’s upside in this arm
99 Michael Soroka ATL x 20.1 5.31 1.57 7% Can see him turning a corner in the summer if his 2018-19 command returns and team context adds to his appeal as Ws can flow if he’s stringing solid 5 IP outings together
100 Matt Manning DET x 29 3.72 1.03 9%
101 Alex Wood SFG x 50 4.68 1.48 11%
102 Keaton Winn SFG x 22 4.09 1.05 10%
103 Alek Manoah TOR x 64 5.91 1.80 5% Skyrocketed back up to 79% roster rate at Y! after the gem at DET & he’ll likely be back to 100% everywhere if drops a strong 2-step next wk (SD, at SEA)
104 Tanner Houck BOS x 67.2 5.05 1.26 14%
105 Paul Blackburn OAK x 37 4.86 1.54 17%
106 Miles Mikolas STL x 115.2 4.12 1.27 11%
107 Kolby Allard ATL x 10.2 4.22 1.13 21%
108 Michael Grove LAD x 47 6.89 1.55 13%
109 Jaime Barria LAA x 56.1 3.20 1.14 13%
110 Ben Lively 라이블리 CIN x 51.2 3.83 1.24 16% 5 HR in B2B early June starts saddled him w/12 of his 21 ER as SP, but even w/that he has a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP/17% K-BB in 8 starts (46 IP)… park is still very scary for a FB pitcher
111 Kyle Gibson BAL x 109.2 4.60 1.31 12%
112 Drew Smyly CHC x 94 4.31 1.36 11%
113 Steven Matz STL x 71.2 4.65 1.51 14%
114 David Peterson NYM x 55.1 6.51 1.66 15%
115 Patrick Sandoval LAA x 85.2 4.41 1.47 9%
116 Jameson Taillon CHC x 71.2 6.15 1.40 13%
117 Brady Singer KCR x 94.2 5.80 1.55 10%
118 Carlos Carrasco NYM x 61 5.16 1.43 6%
119 Daniel Lynch KCR x 47.1 4.18 1.23 9%
120 Tyler Anderson LAA x 84 5.25 1.52 8%
121 Bryan Hoeing MIA 43.1 4.78 1.38 9%
122 Yonny Chirinos TBR 58 3.88 1.28 4%
123 Rich Hill PIT 104 4.76 1.44 11%
124 Colin Rea MIL 80.1 4.71 1.22 12%
125 Brandon Williamson CIN 46.2 5.21 1.35 10%
126 Cole Irvin BAL 37.2 5.50 1.49 11%
127 Cody Bradford TEX 26.2 4.39 1.16 16%
128 Johan Oviedo PIT 100.1 4.75 1.42 11%
129 Patrick Corbin WSN 108.2 4.89 1.55 8%
130 Ross Stripling SFG 45.2 6.11 1.42 15%
131 Hogan Harris OAK 43 6.07 1.40 9%
132 Brandon Bielak HOU 59.1 3.79 1.47 9%
133 Trevor Williams WSN 93.2 4.42 1.41 11%
134 Tommy Henry ARI 74.1 3.75 1.32 7%
135 Osvaldo Bido PIT 24.1 4.44 1.44 11%
136 Martín Pérez TEX 91.2 4.81 1.48 7%
137 Adrian Houser MIL 51.1 3.68 1.54 8%
138 Ken Waldichuk OAK 75.2 6.66 1.84 8%
139 Jake Irvin WSN 58.2 4.60 1.45 5%
140 Luke Weaver CIN 73.1 7.00 1.62 10%
141 Jordan Lyles KCR 96.2 6.42 1.29 9%
142 Alec Marsh KCR 9 7.00 1.78 7%
143 Touki Toussaint CHW 24 3.38 1.38 4%
144 Kyle Freeland COL 103 4.72 1.45 7%
145 Austin Gomber COL 96 6.19 1.48 8%
146 Johnny Cueto MIA 1 36.00 4.00 -14%
147 Ryan Yarbrough KCR 32.1 5.29 1.27 8%
148 Zach Davies ARI 53.2 6.37 1.53 9%
149 Luis Medina OAK 59.2 6.34 1.61 10%
150 Connor Seabold COL 70.1 6.65 1.51 10%
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Jimmember
7 months ago

Hey, Austin Gomber is on a roll.

LightenUpFGmember
7 months ago
Reply to  Jim

He is also one spot away from being the ace of the staff according to this list. A few more good starts and that is just going to force Gomber into the spotlight!