I won’t mince words; it’s ugly in here. While more fantasy cream has risen to the top of third base, the middle class has been virtually decimated, sinking down into a muck where everyone seems to come standard equipped with all sorts of questions with answers that could sink their ultimate values. Playing time concerns, limited profiles, category sinks – once you hit the cliff, everything is in play.

And that cliff will sneak up on you. Read the rest of this entry »

The General Manager episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Phillips, Former New York Mets General Manager

Interview

• How has the General Manager’s job changed since the late 90s?
  • How has the use of analytics changed?
  • Do ballclubs still use any quick simple stats (ERA, wRC+ etc.), or do they use complicated arrays of stats?
• Has the recent free agent signings alligned with new age analytics, or have we gone back to the older style supply/demand economics and marketing?
• Which teams and players have been the winners of winter meetings / free agent signings?
  • Are the Yankees losers of the Winter Meetings (since the team hasn’t improved on paper)
• Which player has more risk for 2023 – Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom?
• Will there be any reprecussions of the Mets going over the highest luxury tax penalty level? Is this good for Major League Baseball?
• Potential free agent contracts for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in 2024.
• New Major League Baseball rules
  • Are these good for baseball?
  • What are some effects?
    • Will pitchers change their repitoires?
    • Will / how will infields & outfields start to shift?

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

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I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez

Ken Waldichuk (372 ADP)

I wish 24-year-old lefty wasn’t on the 40-Win A’s. There is quite a bit to like about him but the other stats will almost certainly come with a low Win total.

He has a 94-mph four-seamer that he throws over half the time. It misses a decent number of bats (10% SwStr%) and generates a ton of popups (27% GB%). His slider (16% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%) also generate a decent number of swings-and-misses. In a short sample (46 pitches) his curve struggled (4% SwStr%). The comps on the pitch aren’t much better. Read the rest of this entry »

After diving into the top-100 hitters, I ranked the next 100. The talent in this group is so flat that a change of 50 projected plate appearances could move a batter 50 spots in the rankings. There will be tons of disagreements and I completely understand. I kept moving guys around until the last minute.

When I did the first list, I went about 120 deep into the projections to see if anyone popped, but I missed a couple who need a plate appearance boost. For this reason, I included all the hitters this time. Besides the actual ranks, I have explained some of the up and down rankings after the table. Also, I had a tough time setting a plate appearance total for some players, so some tiered ranks.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• No catchers were ranked (article coming soon).
• I did NOT take any position scarcity into account (besides catchers). There hasn’t been any for at least a dozen years, so I don’t expect any this season.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.
  Name	PA	AVG Rank	OBP Rank	Points (ESPN)	PA	Talent
  Aaron Judge	650	1	2	7
  Jose Ramirez	660	2	3	1
  Kyle Tucker	620	3	5	4	Down
  Trea Turner	680	4	14	16
  Ronald Acuña Jr.	610	5	4	35
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	680	6	8	3
  Julio Rodriguez	650	7	9	30		Down
  Shohei Ohtani	650	8	7	18
  Juan Soto	660	9	1	2
  Bo Bichette	670	10	19	21		Down
  Pete Alonso	660	11	12	5
  Freddie Freeman	680	12	10	6
  Yordan Alvarez	680	13	11	8
  Mookie Betts	650	14	15	14
  Manny Machado	660	15	17	10
  Bobby Witt Jr.	640	16	22	29		Down
  Fernando Tatis Jr.	530	17	6	40		Down
  Rafael Devers	660	18	21	12
  Paul Goldschmidt	660	19	16	15
  Mike Trout	600	20	13	24
  Austin Riley	680	21	23	19
  Matt Olson	680	22	18	11
  Randy Arozarena	640	23	24	58
  Francisco Lindor	680	24	25	22
  Michael Harris II	580	25	27	49		Down
  Marcus Semien	680	26	30	27
  Jose Altuve	640	27	26	25
  Kyle Schwarber	630	28	20	41
  Nolan Arenado	640	29	36	9
  George Springer	590	30	29	32
  Luis Robert Jr.	550	31	34	43	Down
  Adolis García	650	32	40	75		Down
  Eloy Jiménez	610	33	68	40	Up	Up
  Corey Seager	640	34	35	17
  Andrés Giménez	610	35	41	82
  Starling Marte	550	36	43	106
  Teoscar Hernández	600	37	50	73
  Oneil Cruz	550	38	31	87	Down
  Christopher Morel	650	39	150	217	Up
  Ozzie Albies	610	40	61	37
  Gunnar Henderson	580	41	32	63
  Dansby Swanson	650	42	45	67	Down
  Trevor Story	620	43	44	94
  Jazz Chisholm Jr.	525	44	37	110	Down
  Jake McCarthy	550	45	42	108	Down
  Bryan Reynolds	650	46	39	42
  Alex Bregman	650	47	28	13
  Tim Anderson	580	48	88	128
  Cedric Mullins II	580	49	33	61	Down
  Gleyber Torres	600	50	63	67
  Wander Franco	600	51	70	26
  Kyle Stowers	650	52	216	232	Up
  Xander Bogaerts	630	53	46	36
  Willy Adames	630	54	66	83
  Taylor Ward	630	55	75	80	Up	Up
  José Abreu	640	56	52	31
  Carlos Correa	620	57	48	34
  Nathaniel Lowe	630	58	54	54
  Tyler O’Neill	530	59	69	136		Up
  Ryan Mountcastle	620	60	84	66
  Amed Rosario	630	61	108	90
  Tommy Edman	610	62	55	77	Down	Down
  Brandon Lowe	580	63	56	72
  Vinnie Pasquantino	580	64	51	19
  Seiya Suzuki	600	65	60	87
  Byron Buxton	480	66	81	136
  Anthony Santander	610	67	67	30	Down
  Corbin Carroll	500	68	53	130
  Christian Yelich	650	69	38	112
  Mitch Haniger	610	70	104	115	Up
  Christian Walker	630	71	49	35	Down
  Rhys Hoskins	640	72	47	50
  Steven Kwan	620	73	76	47
  Jeremy Peña	610	74	103	128
  Jorge Polanco	600	75	78	55
  Josh Jung	600	76	153	168	Up
  Ty France	630	77	83	46
  Nico Hoerner	610	78	94	64
  Matt Chapman	640	79	64	91
  Javier Báez	600	80	111	148		Down
  Ian Happ	640	81	77	85
  Rowdy Tellez	570	82	80	44
  Hunter Renfroe	550	83	92	75
  Thairo Estrada	570	84	99	111
  Josh Bell	610	85	72	33
  Anthony Rizzo	570	86	59	58
  Joey Meneses	610	87	137	98	Up	Down
  Ke’Bryan Hayes	590	88	93	131
  Oscar Colas	500	89	262	275	Up
  Brandon Nimmo	640	90	62	78
  Oscar Gonzalez	550	91	139	74
  Triston Casas	570	92	57	53		Down
  Oswaldo Cabrera	550	93	208	227	Up
  Giancarlo Stanton	510	94	85	105		Up
  Nick Castellanos	600	95	115	96
  Jake Cronenworth	650	96	87	51
  Eugenio Suárez	620	97	82	115
  Seth Brown	580	98	102	118
  Austin Hays	610	99	123	87
  Jose Miranda	620	100	140	60	Up
  Lars Nootbaar	580	101	131	157	Up
  Alec Bohm	630	102	130	96
  Vaughn Grissom	500	103	151	180	Up
  Riley Greene	600	104	97	138
  Max Muncy	570	105	58	70
  Lane Thomas	620	106	157	186	Up
  Andrew Vaughn	600	107	117	62
  Bubba Thompson	450	108	271	346	Up
  Alex Verdugo	600	109	126	64
  Ketel Marte	580	110	109	71
  Jeff McNeil	600	111	120	56
  Garrett Mitchell	500	112	183	277	Up
  Luis Arraez	610	113	116	56
  C.J. Cron	610	114	71	47		Down
  Michael Conforto	570	115	89	106
  Jonathan India	600	116	96	142
  Cody Bellinger	540	117	121	146
  Kris Bryant	550	118	79	86		Down
  Jose Siri	480	119	147	254
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	530	120	160	109
  Jean Segura	550	121	149	133
  Brandon Drury	560	122	168	126
  Jurickson Profar	600	123	113	93
  Tommy Pham	570	124	119	184
  Trent Grisham	550	125	114	172
  Yandy Díaz	550	126	86	52	Down
  Andrew Benintendi	540	127	145	123
  Randal Grichuk	500	128	190	143
  Luis Garcia	500	129	192	144
  Luis Urías	570	130	124	121
  Mike Yastrzemski	570	131	134	157
  Austin Meadows	500	132	138	120
  Luis Rengifo	560	133	217	175	Up
  Ramón Laureano	500	134	90	167	Down
  Avisaíl García	560	135	180	195
  Yoán Moncada	590	136	142	170
  Dylan Carlson	540	137	143	149
  Joc Pederson	480	138	146	160
  Bryson Stott	510	139	167	177
  Marcell Ozuna	475	140	178	169	Up
  Chris Taylor	550	141	152	217
  Chas McCormick	530	142	223	241	Up
  Jack Suwinski	500	143	221	262	Up
  Ha-Seong Kim	530	144	173	161
  Mark Canha	550	145	106	154	Down
  Trey Mancini	580	146	166	152
  Justin Turner	520	147	154	117
  Wilmer Flores	550	148	171	103
  CJ Abrams	500	149	105	141	Down	Down
  Luke Voit	510	150	158	201
  Manuel Margot	480	151	155	149	Down
  Harrison Bader	450	152	110	162	Down
  Gavin Lux	500	153	127	125	Down
  Josh Rojas	450	154	91	146	Down
  TJ Friedl	470	155	163	195
  Eduardo Escobar	520	156	198	152
  Jesse Winker	520	157	122	112
  Jeimer Candelario	560	158	185	156
  Gio Urshela	520	159	213	155
  Tyrone Taylor	470	160	199	190
  Josh Naylor	450	161	135	78	Down
  Ryan McMahon	590	162	100	124		Down
  J.D. Martinez	610	163	112	101		Down
  Kolten Wong	480	164	164	184	Down
  Elvis Andrus	500	165	218	193
  Patrick Wisdom	460	166	177	244
  Jorge Soler	500	167	169	190
  Spencer Torkelson	540	168	161	164
  Jake Fraley	410	169	162	222
  Jorge Mateo	450	170	118	212	Down	Down
  Bryan De La Cruz	470	171	226	215
  Eric Hosmer	470	172	205	151
  Brandon Crawford	520	173	193	174
  Jonathan Schoop	540	174	238	180
  Ramón Urías	520	175	203	193
  Dylan Moore	380	176	165	287
  DJ LeMahieu	510	177	159	145		Down
  Jarred Kelenic	440	178	201	223
  J.P. Crawford	610	179	188	135
  Anthony Rendon	450	180	107	67	Down
  Kerry Carpenter	390	181	211	209
  Leody Taveras	450	182	219	239
  Trayce Thompson	410	183	194	244
  Garrett Cooper	520	184	195	199
  Matt Mervis	390	185	207	188
  Nick Gordon	440	186	234	234
  Charlie Blackmon	540	187	179	119		Down
  Miguel Vargas	370	188	206	206
  Brandon Belt	450	189	228	249	Up
  Enrique Hernández	530	190	215	166
  Andrew McCutchen	450	191	133	140	Down
  Joey Votto	510	192	176	180
  Santiago Espinal	470	193	227	178
  Brendan Donovan	480	194	181	180
  Harold Ramírez	450	195	245	197
  Josh Donaldson	490	196	186	205
  Miguel Rojas	520	197	244	176
  Brendan Rodgers	610	198	148	81		Down
  Isaac Paredes	450	199	187	157
  Max Kepler	450	200	170	138	Down

  Notes:

  • Vaughn Grissom: Grissom’s playing time is tough to set. I see him with less than 100 PA (most of the season in the minors), 250 PA to 350 PA (bench bat), or near 600 PA (full-time).Those totals are entirely based on if the Braves do or don’t resign Dansby Swanson.

  • Lane Thomas: The playing time will be way up for him. He leadoff in 31 of the last 32 games while hitting .244/.333/.390 during that time.

  • C.J Cron (all the other current Rockies): They are tough to ever start on the road. Cron for instance has a 1.010 OPS in Colorado and a .671 OPS on the road. None of them are good enough to start on the road. The one exception might have been Kris Bryant, but now that he has plantar fasciitis (career killers for Chase Utley and Albert Pujols) so I’m staying away.

  • Marcell Ozuna: There are a ton of issues surrounding Ozuna, but at the season’s end, he showed some decent signs of life (.321/.368/.585 in September). I’d not be surprised if he gets a shot to start the season, but gets relegated to the bench if he struggles any bit.

  • CJ Abrams: I’m just not sure the 22-year-old is a major-league hitter (.604 OPS in 2022) and could spend some time in the minors.

  • Harrison Bader: First, he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, so I’m out (see Kris Bryant). Also, he hasn’t had over 500 PA in a season since 2017, so why should he start this season? I gave him a bit under his season high.

  • Josh Naylor: The Guardians have pretty much come out and said Naylor will sit against lefties (.565 OPS vs LHP, .781 OPS vs RHP).

  • Bryan De La Cruz: He has some solid skills starting with a 86th percentile Hard Hit% but dealt with a May forearm injury. Before the injury, he was hitting .325/.417/.475. Until September 1st, he struggled and just posted a .181/.211/.304 triple slash line. He finally got healthy in September when he hit .388/.419/.718.

  • Eric Hosmer: I can’t get a read on his playing time at all. I could see the Red Sox going with him all season as the 1B/DH or he gets just 150 PA as a bench bat.

  • DJ LeMahieu: He’s dealing with a messed up foot that will require surgery or he’ll try to play through it. Either way, I’m way down on him.

  • Jarred Kelenic: I don’t buy he showed any improvement in September when all he faced were the A’s, Royals, Rangers, and Tigers pitching staffs. Editor & Tigers fan Note: RUDE!

  • Anthony Rendon: I can’t trust he’ll be healthy. I’m fine missing out if he happens to rebound this season.

  Here are several guys I had a tough time guessing their playing time. I added several options here to see how much they would go up or down depending on their projected role.

  • Garrett Mitchell: The 24-year-old projects to be a nice power-speed threat but with a 41% K% in 68 PA. Projections have him around 400 PA, probably hedging for a demotion. I gave him a small PA bump but if he plays more, this ranking jumps.

  PA: Rank
  400: 183
  450: 129
  500: 107
  550: 83
  600: 55
  650: 36

  • Jose Siri: He has had a problem staying healthy and has not been able to hit lefties (career .570 OPS vs LHP).

  PA: Rank
  450: 131
  500: 110
  550: 80
  600: 52
  650: 35

  • Christopher Morel: The Cubs just jacked him around by moving him up and down and in and out of their lineup. He is a really nice fantasy option if playing.

  PA: Rank
  450: 140
  500: 117
  550: 86
  600: 57
  650: 40

  • Oswaldo Cabrera: There seems to be a ton of Anthony Volpe hedging with the projections. I think the Yankees shortstop job is Cabrera’s or he’s on the bench or in the minors. I don’t see any 50/50 split.

  PA: Rank
  450: 145
  500: 121
  550: 95
  600: 65
  650: 42

  • Trayce Thompson: The Dodgers have a couple of open outfield spots and Thompson can fill one of those roles. Steamer Projections have him with 24 HR in 471 PA or prorated to 31 HR over 600 PA. It’s tough to find that kind of power going with an NFBC ADP of 511. James Outman could also be in play for one of these jobs.

  PA: Rank
  450: 158
  500: 125
  550: 105
  600: 76
  650: 51

  • Kyle Stowers: He has 25 HR power with a full season of at-bats with a non-negative batting average. Currently, he’s projected for the 5th highest OPS on the Orioles but some other bats (Cameron, McKenna, Mazara, and Cordero) might get a crack.

  PA: Rank
  450: 163
  500: 127
  550: 108
  600: 77
  650: 53

  • Luis Garcia: He has some split issues (.589 OPS vs LHP. .729 OPS vs RHP) so his playing time might be limited. As a 22-year-old, his power profile has some interesting age-similar comps.

  

  Some good and some bad.

  PA: Rank
  450: 179
  500: 135
  550: 117
  600: 89
  650: 61

  • Leody Taveras: I think the 23-year-old gets the first shot at being the center fielder but he’s not been a replacement-level hitter (career .624 OPS). His range of outcomes seems all over the place.

  PA: Rank
  450: 195
  500: 153
  550: 125
  600: 109
  650: 82

  • Isaac Paredes: Since he is on the Rays, his playing time could be all over the place.

  PA: Rank
  450: 210
  500: 173
  550: 135
  600: 118
  650: 96

  Previous ranking articles with notes:

  • • Top-100 Hitters (December 7th)

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Nolan Arenado (+8.29)- I think the safety that Arenado offers has a lot to do with his value and rising ADP. While many expected him to fall off after leaving Colorado, he has proven to be a workhorse that is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I think the average returns back to the .260 area, but that is fine because the floor is so safe. 

Alex Bregman (+7.54)- After a slow start to the season, Bregman was fantastic from August on. He hit .290/.394/.513 with 10 home runs in that time frame, making amazing zone contact and hitting the ball extremely hard to the pull side. He hasn’t put together a full season of great work since 2019, but the ability is clearly still there. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+18.5)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-11.95)- Rojas’ drop has a lot to do with the perceived risk in playing time. Rojas was losing time in the second half before injuries gave him greater opportunities. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be in on a number of infielders, but it sounds like they are more interested in a shortstop than a third baseman. Rojas has speed upside and I still think that there is more in the bat overall. However, his defensive issues really holds him back and there is a ton of risk here. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Jung (+10.4)- Jung is going to be a popular player especially if he has a big spring training. Unlike other prospects, I think he has a legit shot at being an everyday player on Opening Day. There is power which was on display when he hit five home runs in 26 games at the Majors. While he showed more swing and miss, he has shown good contact skills previously in the minors. I am very interested in Jung as a guy that has a clear road to a great role in an improving offense. 

Jordan Walker (+22.39)- It is interesting to see Walker rising so fast. The talent is not really in question, but where is he playing? He clearly is blocked by Arenado at third and while he should be able to transition to the outfield, it is not like the Cardinals are devoid of options there either. He has never played at AAA, so I would expect him to start the year there, but he could force himself up pretty quickly if he dominates there like he has everywhere else. 

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (+13.58)- See the article in this series on shortstops.  

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.84)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-19.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Others of Note

Justin Turner (-25.28)- Turner is dropping because he is not signed yet and he had a down year in 2022. However, he actually rebounded late in the season, hitting .340/412/.514 with seven home runs and two stolen bases from July 1 on. I still believe he ends up back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and if he does, he is a pretty good bet to return value at his cost. 

Patrick Wisdom (-49.07)- Wisdom swings. Wisdom swings hard. Wisdom strikes out. Wisdom hits home runs. That is pretty much the scouting report for Patrick Wisdom. Unfortunately for him, with the Cubs adding players (and they could add more) he is likely a bench bat at this point which hurts his value. That being said, there is cheap power and so there is value in draft champions. 

Brian Anderson (+53.99)- Why is Anderson rising when he doesn’t even have a team after being non-tendered? Sometimes things don’t make sense. Even if he does latch on somewhere, I don’t think he has a lot of value unless he has a full time role. 

12/12/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Sean Murphy/William Contreras trade
• Chris Bassitt to TOR
• Kodai Senga to NYM
• Andrew Heaney to TEX
• Jameson Taillon to CHC

Read the rest of this entry »

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Here is the transcript from today’s chat!

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

12/11/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @dbentrek – Guest (Benched with Bubba Podcast and Gaining the Edge)

Read the rest of this entry »

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12/9/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Aaron Judge stays in NYY
• Xander Bogaerts to SDP
• Willson Contreras to STL
• Brandon Nimmo stays in NYM
• Josh Bell to CLE

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