Deep League Starting Pitchers (Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale

Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)

With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300.

There is a reason he moves between the two roles last season was that he didn’t perform as well as a starter (4.15 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 1.26 WHIP) versus relieving (2.75 ERA. 10.1 K/9, 0.79 WHIP). His starting ERA could regress downward with his ERA estimators in the 3.50 range.

He has the arsenal to be a starter with a non-sinking sinker (11% SwStr%, 40 GB%) and two average or better non-fastballs, a change (14% SwStr%, 40% GB%) and a slider (23% SwStr%, 47% GB%). He throws his 96-mph sinker over 60% of the time, so he could get more swing-and-miss by upping the usage of his other two pitches.

The one issue holding Whitlock back is that he had off-season hip surgery but is expected to be back to start the season.

Source confirms: Garrett Whitlock will undergo season-ending arthroscopic hip surgery next week in New York to address a right hip impingement. Dr. Bryan Kelly will perform it. Red Sox expect him back for spring training.

Alex Cora told reporters in Cincy first (inc. @PeteAbe).

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) September 20, 2022

I’d not be surprised to see his ADP jump 50 or more spots once he gets into a Spring Training game and touches 95-mph.

Tanner Houck (338 ADP)

While Houck’s 2023 role is leaning toward the Red Sox bullpen, the team wants him to be stretched out as a starter.

Last season, he was mainly out of the bullpen (only four starts) but was serviceable as a starter (4.32 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 7.0 K/9, and 1.32 WHIP).

There is just not much to get excited about him as a starter. He’s struggled to get lefties out (LHH: .338 vs wOBA, RHH: .230 vs wOBA). He never reached 90 pitches (5 IP twice) in any of his starts.

Finally, he only has two decent pitches, a sinker (12% SwStr%, 71% GB%) and a slider (16% SwStr%, 42% GB%). His four-seamer (8% SwStr%, 39% GB%) is well below average. He toyed with a splitter (6% usage, 23% Zone%) that missed a few bats (13% SwStr%). The splitter grades out decent and might help him against lefties.

His starter upside is probably that of Adam Wainwright or Jordan Lyles.

Josiah Gray (341 ADP)

Gray’s 2022 season was a disaster as he performed the pitching sin of allowing too many walks (4.0 BB/9) and home runs (2.3 HR/9) leading to an unrosterable 5.02 ERA. His flyball nature (33% GB%) means the home runs will stay, so to improve, he has to halve his walk rate.

Additionally, he just can’t get lefties out (vs .598 SLG, 6.8 BB/9, 5.77 xFIP) … like at all.

Now, he can strikeout batters with a 95-mph fastball (7% SwStr%), slider (18% SwStr%), and curve (13% SwStr%). He threw those three pitches 94% of the time. He tried to add a non-sinking sinker (40% GB%) that didn’t miss bats (3% SwStr%) and a horrible change (1% SwStr%, 20% GB%). Both pitches performed like garbage and the sinker projects to be garbage.

Sinker

Change

The change could be a decent pitch for him if he gains confidence in it and uses it more often.

I feel Gray is going about 300 spots too high in the deep draft-and-hold formats and will be unrosterable in a redraft league. He has to improve his walk rate, home run rate, and results against lefties to be added. I’m not going to bet on all three happening and would rather gamble on a pitcher who is just one improvement away from becoming relevant.

Kenta Maeda (349 ADP)

The 34-year-old righty was trying to return last season from Tommy John surgery, but he should be ready to go once the season starts. It’s really tough to know who will show up in Spring Training, so I’ll start with the best-case scenario knowing it could be worse.

His best two seasons were 2018 and 2020 (vs just the NL and AL Centrals) even though the only time he really struggled was in 2021 right before he had Tommy John surgery and lost 1 mph off his fastball. His ERAs and estimators hovered around 3.00. He posted a strikeout rate over 10 K/9 with a 91.5 mph fastball. In both seasons, he leaned on his slider and change (splitter) (combined 43% usage in 2018, 69% in 2020). Those two non-fastballs are his bread and butter with swinging-strike rates over 16%. And keep his walk rate at or under 3.0 K/9 as he has done every season.

He has the chance to be a productive pitcher. His price is fine but I could see it jump if he makes his Spring Training starts and his velocity rebounds.