Shortstop ADP Market Report: 12/11/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+7.48)- I am not surprised to see Tatis begin to climb as people love to chase upside and there is no bigger upside in fantasy than Tatis. If he was entering the year completely healthy and not on suspension, he would likely be a top three pick if not the first overall pick. However, Tatis is suspended until April 20th and he had shoulder and wrist surgery after being suspended last season. There is some risk here and I don’t know if the discount is enough. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Wander Franco (-6.2)- I am a bit surprised to see Franco slipping. Typically top prospects are a hot commodity and while Franco is no longer a prospect, he was regarded as a potentially generational talent coming up last season. This may be just a reaction to the depth at the top of the shortstop pool or just a small sample size, but I have concern in Franco’s profile that makes me buy this a little more. While Franco has great contact ability, his low launch angle is concerning that he won’t be able to tap into a ton of power.  That being said, he can hit the ball very hard and the contact skills are elite (top 5 in baseball). If he does raise that launch angel just a bit, he could be a first round talent and I think the floor is pretty safe as long as he is healthy. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Jeremy Peña (+17.51)- It is not surprising at all to see Pena rising after not only a great rookie season, but a huge postseason. The question becomes: can he build upon what we saw in 2022? Pena possesses good zone contact skills, but swings a ton outside of the zone. He doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard and has a lower than ideal launch angle. He does have good speed, but the Astros aren’t necessarily pushing it aggressively on the base paths. I think we may see him kind of be the player he was in 2022 or even have a slight regression. 

Nico Hoerner (+18.32)- Hoerner’s rise is a bit shocking to me. He had his first real impactful season in the Majors in terms of plate appearances and went 10/20 with a .281 average. That’s good, but is it worth the rise? You have to love the contact skills, but the lack of ability to take a walk probably means he does not lead off like Roster Resource is projecting. The speed is great as stolen bases are always at a premium, but I feel like this is overpaying for those stolen bases. 

Thairo Estrada (+16.4)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

None

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Adalberto Mondesi (+24.61)- Look how the mighty have fallen! Well even after the huge fall in ADP, Mondesi is starting to work his way back up and should be expected to continue to climb. For a guy that has bounced around the top four rounds for the last few years, this is going to be a tantalizing discount for just about everyone and while I will try and avoid pulling a Charlie Brown and falling on my butt trying to kick the Mondesi football, God knows I am sure to do it a few times this year if the price stays here. 

CJ Abrams (+20)- Abrams is rising in a larger part because he has a full time role and is a former top prospect. He showed speed and good zone contact skills, but he swung a ton out of the zone. I think he can improve on that and be a plus average guy with speed and enough pop in a good park. I hope the price doesn’t rise too far because the floor isn’t near the ceiling. 

Ezequiel Tovar (+36.64)- Tovar is rising fast up the ADP with the belief that he will be the full time shortstop in Colorado out of spring training. He did come up at the end of 2022, but I am skeptical that he will break camp after only getting 23 AAA plate appearances and with an organization like the Rockies that has repeatedly blocked their prospects. 

Ha-Seong Kim (+13.58)- Kim is projected right now to lead off for one of the best lineups in baseball so it is not surprising to see him rise up the ADP. However, the signing of Xander Bogaerts may drop him back down a little here in the next few weeks as his playing time could come into question once Tatis returns from suspension and he most definitely should drop down the batting order. I think he will likely settle in at second for the most part with Tatis going to the outfield full time, but it also seems likely that he drops down to the sixth or seventh hole in the lineup. That being said, he is eligible at SS and 3B and he improved from his first year to his second and I expect he will continue to do so. 

Top 300 Players Falling

None

 

Others of Note

Anthony Volpe (+37.73)- I am a bit surprised that Volpe is rising so much but I think Volpe’s prospect pedigree is getting people excited. He hit 21 home runs and stole 50 bases while hitting .249/.342/.460 in 596 plate appearances between AA and AAA. Volpe should be up at some point, but the question is when? With reports that the Yankees are interested in Carlos Correa, Volpe would have to go to the outfield or the Yankees would need to trade Gleyber Torres so there are some roadblocks for him. I think he is going to spend a fair amount of time in the minors, so I am not willing to spend much draft capital here. 

Kyle Farmer (+32.63)- Farmer is moving up with his trade to Minnesota. The funny thing is he probably shouldn’t be moving up. Farmer played full time in Cincinnati and seems unlikely to do so in Minnesota, but this time of year, anyone that gets their name mentioned in the hot stove will likely move up. This is an example of when they shouldn’t. 

Zach McKinstry (-69.87)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Brice Turang (+105.71)- Turang is beginning to vault up the ADP with the possibility that he may break camp with the Major League club as their second baseman. I am a bit skeptical of that. While there is an opening there with Kolten Wong being traded, the Brewers are notoriously cheap and I think they will hold him down to get the extra year of service time. They could decide that the new incentives for bringing up a prospect that does well may be worth it, but I need to see something from the team that indicates that. There is contact skills, raw power and speed in the profile, so if he can find his way to 450+ plate appearances, he could be a great fantasy asset at his price. 

Kevin Newman (+160.33)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.