Deep League Starting Pitchers (Waldichuk, Painter, Falter, & Wacha)

D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

Ken Waldichuk (372 ADP)

I wish 24-year-old lefty wasn’t on the 40-Win A’s. There is quite a bit to like about him but the other stats will almost certainly come with a low Win total.

He has a 94-mph four-seamer that he throws over half the time. It misses a decent number of bats (10% SwStr%) and generates a ton of popups (27% GB%). His slider (16% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%) also generate a decent number of swings-and-misses. In a short sample (46 pitches) his curve struggled (4% SwStr%). The comps on the pitch aren’t much better.

He might be able to take a step forward by dropping this curve.

While he only had an 8.6 K/9 in the majors, he has posted a strikeout rate of over 10 K/9 at every minor league stop.

Additionally, he minimized his walks with a 2.6 BB/9 thereby helping him post a 1.21 WHIP.

His 4.93 ERA might scare off some fantasy managers but it was due in part to a .320 BABIP with runners on base that should regress. Overall, a decent arm who can be streamed against winnable opponents.

Andrew Painter (404 ADP)

The 19-year-old righty is a hefty boy measuring 6’7″ and 215 pounds. While he has only made it to AA, he dominated at each level for a combined 1.56 ERA, 13.5 K/9, and 0.89 WHIP last season in .

Here are the latest updates on his repertoire from Baseball America’s top-10 prospect rankings (pitch grades are from BA, FG, and MLB).

  • Fastball (70, 60/60, 60): Averages 96 mph with 2400 rpm. Two comps on the fastball are Dylan Cease (96.8 mph, 2500 rpm, 10% SwStr%) and Blake Snell (95.8 mph, 2400 rpm, 9% SwStr%).
  • Slider (60, 55/60, 50): Low 80’s at 2500 rpm.
  • Change (55, 40/50, 55): High 80’s
  • Curve (50, 55/60, 55): Low 70’s (blends with slider).

I could see the Phillies limiting his innings to start the year (103 IP total in 2022) and then promote him for the stretch run.

Bailey Falter (406 ADP)

The 25-year-old lefty is a solid rotation piece. He threw a total of 131 IP between AAA (9.4 K/9, 3.04 ERA, 0.66 WHIP) and the majors. He made 25 starts and had four appearances out of the bullpen to start the season. In the majors, he posted a 3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9. Of the qualified pitchers last season, his 17.6 K%-BB% is most similar to Julio Urias (18.1%), Sandy Alcantara (17.7%), and Corey Kluber (17.1%).

His season might have taken a step forward in the second half with a 3.38 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 1.09 WHIP because of a change in his pitch repertoire. Here is his season divided up into the early relieving, starting until the All-Star break, and after the All-Star break.

Bailey Falter’s 2022 Pitch Mix
Four-seam Sinker Change Slider Curve
Early Relieving 72% 6% 19% 3%
Starting until All-Star Break 2% 53% 5% 28% 11%
Starting after All-Star Break 43% 25% 3% 8% 21%
SwStr% 12% 8% 4% 18% 12%
GB% 34% 34% 38% 35% 27%

While there was a move from the sinker to the four-seamer, the pitches are similar with a bit more vertical movement on the sinker. The big takeaway is that his fastball is fine and he should be throwing his curve and slider about 25% of the time. Solid late option on a decent team.

Michael Wacha (409 ADP)

The 31-year-old Wacha was a pleasant surprise in 2022 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and just a 7.4 K/9 after struggling in 2020 (6.62 ERA) and 2021 (5.05 ERA). He seemed to have two halves split up by a July IL stint (shoulder inflammation). Before going on the IL, he had a 2.69 ERA (4.29 xFIP) but a 4.11 ERA (3.62 xFIP) after returning. He did lose a bit of average fastball velocity (93.2 mph to 92.7 mph) but was better in the second half after looking beyond ERA (10% K%-BB% to 20% K%-BB%).

There are several different factors in play leading to these results. First, he started throwing a cutter more.

Michael Wacha’s Pitch Mix
Four-seamer Cutter Sinker Change Curve
Pre-Injury 36% 14% 11% 31% 8%
Post-Injury 36% 22% 8% 28% 7%
SwStr% 5% 5% 4% 20% 5%
GB% 28% 53% 58% 44% 13%

While the cutter is new, it wasn’t much of a step up from his other fastballs.

One item to consider is that his pitches either generate weak contact (groundballs and popups) or miss bats (elite change). The easy outs should lead to a low BABIP, but a .208 BABIP with runners in scoring position (.267 for his career) is unsustainable, should regress, and push up his ERA.

Second, his post-injury K%-BB% jump is from his results on 3-2 counts. For his career, he has a -8% K%-BB% (league average around -5%) so there is little history of high value being a skill. Here are his splits from last season.

Half: 3-2 K%-BB%
1H: 4%
2H: 27%

That high rate isn’t going to stick with his strikeout and walks regressing back to more historic numbers.

I think some smart MLB team will take a chance on him so I don’t expect him to fall too far. His ERA shoud be around 3.75 given his low walk rate and ability to generate weak contact (decent WHIP). Reasonable bench streamer.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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casey jmember
1 year ago

Painter is a right-hander