Deep League Starting Pitchers (Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello)

Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

Taijuan Walker (305 ADP)

The 30-year-old Walker is a fine, steady pitcher with a career 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9. He hasn’t deviated from those numbers over his career including this season’s 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.

There doesn’t seem to be any sign of his skills degrading. While his fastball velocity was down compared to 2021 (94.2 mph to 93.5 mph) it was still higher than in both 2019 (93.2) and 2020 (93.3). His 2.6 BB/9 was his lowest since 2016 (2.5 BB/9). His first and second-half K%-BB% was almost unchanged (13.2% to 13.6%).

He’s a nice stable accumulator, especially if he’s on a decent team, like the Mets last season, where he can end up with 12 Wins again. Since he’s a free agent, the team he signs with will determine most of his 2023 value. There is just not much upside or downside with him.

Martín Pérez (317 ADP)

The 31-year-old Perez had a career-best season in 2022 with a 2.89 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.26 WHIP, and 51% GB%. Several factors led to the improvement.

He didn’t get hit nearly as hard (or the defense behind him improved) with his BABIP dropping from .336 to .295. His ERA got even more help as his BABIP with runners in scoring position dropped down to just .257. I’d expect some regression here and a mid-3.00 ERA going forward.

Also, he raised his groundball rate from 44% to 51% thereby dropping his HR/9 from 1.5 to 0.5. Again, the 0.5 won’t stick, but it shouldn’t go back to the mid-1.0’s. He got the higher groundball rate by throwing his sinker (53% GB%) and change (55% GB) two-thirds of the time.

One item holding him up was a third pitch. He saw substantial fall-offs with each successive trip through the order (1st TTO: 3.20 xFIP, 2nd TTO: 4.01, 3rd TTO: 4.51). After the All-Star break, he did toy with a slider that had a 14% SwStr%. On top of everything else, he’s now a free agent so a desperate (i.e. losing) team could sign him to a longer-term deal hurting his chance for Wins.

The sinker-change combination gives him a nice base. I’ll really interested to see who he signs with and what changes they implement.

Sean Manaea (329 ADP)

Manaea’s talent jumps around with 2022 being a down year: 4.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. The WHIP and strikeouts were tolerable but the ERA near 5.00 over 158 IP was a killer. A few issues led to his demise.

First, he has allowed more home runs each of the past three seasons (1.2 HR/9 to 1.23 HR/9 to 1.7 HR/9) as his groundball rate dropped again (50% to 42% to 38%). The home runs have pushed up his ERA (4.96) and FIP (4.53) way over his other ERA estimators (3.93 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA, 4.05 xERA).

Second, he has struggled against righties with a 4.19 xFIP while posting a 3.59 xFIP against lefties.

Finally, he’s a two-pitch guy, leaning closer to one pitch by throwing his “sinker” (34% GB%, 10% SwStr%) 61% of the time. He throws the change (52% GB%, 16% SwStr%) 25% of the time as his second-best pitch. He just gets annihilated each additional time through the batting order with his xFIP jumping from 3.38 to 4.08 to 4.84 to 7.56.

Right now, I just don’t see any upside with Manaea and he has been this way for a few seasons. If I want a starter who provides some strikeouts and gets hit around, I’ll draft Patrick Corbin 400 picks later.

Brayan Bello (329 ADP)

The 23-year-old righty lived on the extremes last season. A .404 BABIP and 4.2 BB/9 led to a 1.78 WHIP. His 56% GB% kept the home run rate down at 0.2 HR/9, but it wasn’t enough. In the end, his BABIP and a 4.71 ERA made him seem unrosterable. That said, the upside is easy to spot.

First and foremost, his 96 mph sinker is one of the best in the game with a 64% GB% and 8% SwStr%. On top of that, he also throws a great changeup (58% GB%, 22% SwStr%). After those two offerings, he threw junk 39% of the time (slider and four-seamer).

The walks were an issue in the majors but he didn’t struggle with them as much in the minors (2.9 BB/9 in AA, 3.7 BB/9 in AAA). He had problems once the count got to 3 and 2. The league averages a -3.4 K%-BB% on this count. Bello was at -25% (!!) and could use little more luck here. Also, most of his struggles came in the first four games (6.1 BB/9) but he posted a 3.5 BB/9 from then on. Over the last two months against tough opponents, he posted a 3.07 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 1.59 WHIP (.381 BABIP).

His sinker and change could carry him quite far by missing bats and generating groundballs. If he could only find that third offering, he could take off.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Joe Wilkeymember since 2016
1 year ago

Not sure I’m in on Perez regardless of where he ends up. His plate discipline numbers aren’t that different from guys like Adrian Houser and Zach Davies, neither of whom had a K% over 18% last year, compared to his 20.6%. The difference adds up over the course of a season, it’s 21 fewer strikeouts if you give him an 18% rate. He had a super low zone% (3rd lowest among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 IP), didn’t get many swings out there (bottom quartile of that group), and got a lot of contact out there when hitters did swing (10th highest O-Contact%).

You can live outside the zone, but you gotta get whiffs out there if you’re going to do it. Guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease can afford sub-38% zone rates because they get whiffs, but living out there without swing and miss stuff is not a good recipe.

wobatusmember since 2024
1 year ago
Reply to  Joe Wilkey

Then again, he was on a losing team with a so-so d in a bit of a hitters park. If he signs with the Cards, say, he’d probably be a good pick up. But certainly primed for some regression otherwise.