Deep League Starting Pitchers (Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz

Cody Morris (370 ADP)

The 26-year-old righty is probably getting a little too much love because of last season’s 2.28 ERA (.133 BABIP with RISP). The deal is that he posted a 4.6 BB/9 that boosted his ERA estimators into the mid-4.00s. It wasn’t the first time walking batters (3.5 BB/9 in AAA) so if the walk rate returns, he is just unrosterable.

Now, he has some good traits. He has a popup-generating (21% GB%) 95-mph fastball that misses a decent number of bats (11 SwStr%). Also, he utilizes a decent cutter (10% SwStr%) and in a small sample (70 pitches), he had an elite change (29% SwStr%, 63% GB%).

He can miss bats and generate weak contact, but again the walks. He should be drafted in all draft-and-hold leagues, but not this early. Some similar pitchers going later are Kris Bubic (7.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 686 ADP), Ian Anderson (7.8, 4.4, 485), and Taylor Hearn (8.2, 4.3, 744) because they didn’t have the sub-3.00 ERA. A fantasy manager could just wait 100 picks or more for one of them and hope they find some control instead of hoping the same happens with Morris.

Mitch Keller (373 ADP)

I guess it’s time to write up Keller… again. He started off the season throwing a new 97-mph fastball and he got lit up. After his May 13th start, he had a 6.61 ERA (4.53 xFIP), 7.2 K/9, 47% GB%, and 1.53 WHIP. At that point, he moved away from the four-seamer and started throwing his sinker more. His stats from then on were 3.21 ERA (3.85 xFIP), 8.0 K/9, 50% GB%, and 1.36 WHIP. During that time, he leaned into this slider (13% SwStr%) and curve (56% GB%, 8% SwStr%) and dropped his change (6% SwStr%).

This fastball-slider mix is working for him by getting some swings-and-misses and keeping the ball on the ground. Without another major step forward (e.g. a new above-average pitch), he is maxed out as a starter. He’s a perfectly fine high-3.00 ERA streaming option, especially for draft-and-hold leagues. In redraft, I’d take a chance on an arm with more upside and come back to Keller if all my darts failed.

Alex Wood (376 ADP)

The 31-year-old lefty disappointed with a 5.10 ERA as he struggled with a .329 BABIP and 1.8 HR/9 with runners on base. Otherwise, he was great with a 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 48% GB%. Those three combined to have his ERA estimators around 3.50 (3.76 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA). His 18.2% K%-BB% was just ahead of Julio Urías and Sandy Alcantara.

There is a ton to like about his profile. His 92.4 mph sinker (9% SwStr%) had the highest velocity of his career. His slider (14% SwStr%) and change (10% SwStr%, 67% GB%) both produce average results.

The constant issue with him is injuries. The most innings he’s thrown since 2016 is 152 (136 IP in 2022) and this past season, he missed the last month with a shoulder injury.

At this stage of his career, what you see is what you get from him, but it’s damn good. Of all the pitchers I’ve profiled during this series, I’d draft Wood first… as long as he’s healthy.

José Suarez (378 ADP)

There is a ton that went on with Suarez last season. Over his first six starts, he moved to and from AAA. Over that time, he had a deserving 5.00 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 5.7 BB/9. Starting in late June, everything clicked when he implemented all the following improvements.

• Slowly gained some velocity (~0.5 mph) across the board.
• Added a decent slider (14% SwStr%, 33% GB%).
• Added some horizontal break to his changeup creating more groundballs.
• Didn’t throw his fastballs as much (48% usage to 40%).
• His groundball rate increased from 36% to 43% (51% in September).
• Most importantly, he started throwing strikes with his walk rate dropping from 5.7 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9.

A complete transformation. His second half 18% K%-BB% is in line with Wood and his comps (Urias and Alcantara). He is a breakout in hidden plain sight. I would take Wood ahead of him (longer track record), but Suarez would be an easy second choice.