Deep League Starting Pitchers (Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello

Tylor Megill (310 ADP)

I’m a little surprised to see Megill being taken so early because of his 5.13 ERA, three IL trips (biceps, shoulder, COVID), and his final six appearances coming as a reliever. Fantasy managers must be concentrating on his 3.35 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, and 96-mph fastball.

As a starter (before the shoulder injury), his results were great (10.2 K/9, 3.04 xFIP, and 1.21 WHIP) besides a 5.01 ERA where most of the damage came in a one-inning, eight earned run start. In his 41 starter innings, he struggled with runners on base (vs. .290 wOBA when empty, .349 wOBA with runners) and against lefties (.361 wOBA vs LHH, .256 wOBA vs RHP). It’s tough to know if any of these traits will stick with him but could hamper his upside.

Before the shoulder injury, he threw a four-seamer, slider, and curve but when he came back it was mainly a fastball and curve. Here are his pitch results and usage before and after the shoulder injury.

The fastball, especially compared to other fastballs, was great. The slider was average with the other two being below average but serviceable.

When he returned from the shoulder injury, his fastball velocity was exactly the same (1 mph expected jump) and trended down.

I wonder if he wasn’t 100% healthy. Even with the variations, his fastball got great results no matter its velocity.

Four-seam velo: SwStr%
94: 11.5%
95: 12.5%
96: 13.5%
97: 16.1%

At least he’s getting six months to heal the shoulder and will be stretched out as a starter.

Tylor Megill (right shoulder strain) is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session next Saturday. He's looking at late August, early Sept. for his return from the IL.

That will be as a RP, though Mets officials have told Megill he'll stretch back out as a starter this winter.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 6, 2022

I have no clue how to value him going forward but he will need to drop a 100 spots or so before I’d consider drafting him. There are similarly talented pitchers who don’t have as many question marks going into next season.

Ross Stripling (327 ADP)

Stripling turned around his career by simply throwing his best pitches more. He lowered his ERA from 4.80 to 3.01 (3.67 xFIP) and his WHIP from 1.27 to 1.02. While his strikeout rate did drop from 8.4 K/9 to 7.4 K/9, he focused on keeping the ball on the ground (36% GB% to 44% GB%).

Here is his pitch mix and results.

Most of his gains came from just doubling the usage of a near-elite changeup.

I don’t see any reason he can’t replicate the results if he maintains the same approach. The only big question going into 2023 is what team does he sign with so he can replicate his double-digit Wins.

Drey Jameson (328 ADP)

Jameson should gain a ton of helium as the off-season goes on and people have time to dive into his profile.

I understand it was just four major league starts (vs SD, LAD, and SF x2), but the results were outstanding. He posted a 1.48 ERA (2.98 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 56% GB% while utilizing a 95-mph fastball. It’s a near-perfect mix of strikeouts and walks while keeping the ball on the ground.

He might even have some upside with a pitch mix adjustment. Here are the pitches he has thrown so far.

Two acceptable fastballs with the sinker’s groundball rate possibly being a game changer. The slider got elite results and he could throw it more. The curve and change did nothing in the short sample.

It’s time to dive into the pitches a bit more. First, here are the comps for his sinker to see if the high groundball rate can continue.

Similar pitches to the sinker’s characteristics (not results) have a decent but not elite groundball rate. It’s a tool in his arsenal.

Now, here are the comps for his change and curve.

Change

Curve

I don’t think there is a reason for him to shelve either pitch at this point in his career, but the change projects to be a better pitch going forward.

Based on just the small talent sample, he should be drafted earlier. The only issue I see is if he can keep up the results or was it a four-game blip.

Aaron Civale (342 ADP)

The 27-year-old Civale’s 2022 season went from a first-half disaster to a respectable second-half finish. Before the All-Star break, he struggled with his results and staying healthy. During that time he posted a 6.17 ERA (4.11 xFIP), 1.46 WHIP, 38% GB%, and 8.7 K/9 while going on the IL twice (finger and glute). When he returned from the second IL stint in August, he improved to a 3.35 ERA (3.01 xFIP), 0.84 WHIP, 46% GB%, and 9.6 K/9. While his BABIP dropping from .350 to .235 was the main reason for the step forward, he showed small improvements across the board.

He took a step forward by simplifying his pitch mix and focusing on his better pitches.

The cutter and elite change gave him a great base and he could work in his sinker if he needs a pitch over the plate.

I’ve got two worries about him going forward. First, his final IL stint was for his forearm and hopefully, he doesn’t have a chronic elbow problem. Second, he tinkers around and goes with a “new” mix that doesn’t work as well. It’s fine being a low-3.00’s ERA pitcher.