As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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*Small smattering of applause that sounds a lot like my wife imploring our kids to “please just clap for Daddy doing his dumb thing”.*

Thank you, thank you – and welcome back to the nation’s most premier(est) fantasy baseball award ceremony! We’ll be starting our offseason festivities off with the tools of ignorance – and no, I’m not talking about my projection methodology (awkward pause)…

*obviously canned audience laughter*

There it is! Now, please, just sit back, relax, and get ready for more bad jokes and lots of talk about the grown men who play on our pretend baseball teams.

It’s the Catchies!

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Several emerging backstops have given the position a bit of a renaissance right now and it feels the deepest it has been in quite some time. While that does offer more options lean on for quality production, it also means you need more production from the position to compete with your leaguemates. Here are 3 catchers I like to put up quality numbers behind the dish this year:

• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Tyler Stephenson | CIN

My Projection: .288/.359/.477, 19 HR, 72 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 506 PA

Stephenson was on his way to a breakout in 2022 before injuries derailed him and limited him to just 50 games. I’m right back on the train for 2023! The 26-year-old hasn’t delivered a ton of power yet (.158 ISO), but his 6’4, 225-pound frame says more in on the way, especially in that ballpark. The Reds also plan to utilize his bat more by way of starts at 1B and DH ($) which is always great for catcher-eligible bat. Power is plentiful in the upper rungs of the catcher ranks, pairing it with the batting average is what makes Stephenson special.

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I’m taking a break from my rebuilding series this week to start my Ottoneu rankings for 2023. It’s a little late — the cut deadline has already come and gone — but I’ll try and get them done quickly so they’re available before draft season starts in earnest. Between these and Chad’s rankings (found below), hopefully you’ll have everything you need to prepare for your drafts this year.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Playing a catcher is a necessary evil in fantasy baseball, and in Ottoneu, you have the opportunity to play two at a time (though be careful with your position games played cap). The top players at the position will give you legitimate production but things drop off quickly from the top two tiers. If you can’t (or don’t want to) grab one of the top seven or eight players at the position, you’re probably better off picking two of the mid- or low-tier options and hoping to find some kind of production out of that combination. If you really wanted to, you could grab a couple of catchers for $1 at the auction and then just churn through the position in season until you find something that works.

There’s a pretty large group of young backstops who are either just getting established in the big leagues or are on the verge of being called up. The leap from the minors to the majors is always hard for youngsters, but it’s particularly difficult for catchers. I don’t recommend relying on one of these prospects unless you pair them with an established veteran to mitigate some of the risk.

One note about Daulton Varsho: based on playing time alone, he should probably be included in the top tier since he’ll be playing nearly everyday, but I would be shocked if he held onto his catcher eligibility next year. You could draft him as your primary catcher alongside some of the top options at the position, but next year, you’re going to have to choose whether or not to keep him as an outfielder only. Weigh his salary accordingly.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Will Smith – Technically, we both ranked Smith in the top tier so we don’t actually diverge all that much on his position, but I considered ranking Smith in a tier of his own above any other player at the position. His combination of elite plate discipline and good power for the position is unrivaled as a catcher. Both his projected points per game and points per plate appearance stand apart from any other backstop.

Danny Jansen – This ranking comes down to how much you think he’s going to play behind Alejandro Kirk; his projected production is fantastic. Those two were paired up as the starting catcher and designated hitter last year once Jansen returned from his early season injury. The Blue Jays brought in Brandon Belt this offseason and he might take away a portion of the playing time at designated hitter against right-handed pitching, but do you really think his knees (or lack thereof) are going to hold up for a whole season? I’m expecting Jansen to get plenty of playing time as the primary backup to Kirk and at DH, just like last year.

Mitch Garver – This one also comes down to playing time. In his first season in Texas, Garver spent nearly half the season on the Injured List and he was just okay when he was on the field. Still, he put up a 136 wRC+ over his previous three seasons before last year and that includes a 43 wRC+ in 2020. The Rangers don’t really have a great option at designated hitter and Garver could slot in there which is what he did for most of last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Francisco Álvarez, Bo Naylor, Shea Langeliers, etc. – This goes back to that note I had above about young catchers. They’re full of risk and I wouldn’t count on them to carry your production at the position. If you want to grab one as a future investment, that’s fine, but if you’re competing for a top spot in your league, I’d be more inclined to find some more consistent production from a different mid-tier option. Álvarez in particular seems like a significant risk. The talent with the bat is evident, but the Mets clearly don’t trust him behind the plate yet. New York signed Omar Narváez and extended Tomás Nido to pair at the position, pushing Álvarez back to the minors as he continues to develop his defensive skills. It’s possible he’ll get an opportunity at designated hitter, which certainly changes some of the calculus, but that’s no guarantee yet.

2/3/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
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C RANKINGS

• SB Studs: J.T. Realmuto v. Daulton Varsho
• Is Will Smith a bit overlooked?
• Round 5 battle: Adley Rutschman v. Salvador Perez
• On the Rise: MJ Melendez v. Alejandro Kirk

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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Vlad Sedler

Projections

• VDP Projections
• ATC Projections

Strategy Section

• Risk
  • How to price players with risk
  • Is there a limit to the amount of risk you can assemble on one fantay roster?
• Closers
  • The arguments for and against drafting a super elite closer in the 2nd round
• Catchers
  • General assesment of the catcher player pool
  • General strategy for drafting catchers in 2023

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Catchers
  • Willson Contreras
  • Sean Murphy
  • Danny Jansen
  • Cal Raleigh
  • Logan O’Hoppe

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I haven’t included catchers in the normal rankings since each league has a different total being rostered from 10 to down to the 48th one (12-team, two-catcher AL or NL-only leagues). I think the talent drops off around my 25th ranking. This finding leads to two takes. Unless I’m in a 15-team, tw0-catcher or deeper league, I’m not going to prioritize catchers. There are acceptable options for shallow formats. In the deeper leagues, I will set a line and try to roster my two catchers from the top-25.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

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Last week, I posted my catcher rankings for Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, but those are, of course, not the only rankings out there. There are other formats, there are values created by other analysts and more.  Before moving to the next position in my rankings, I wanted to take a moment to look at where other values might differ from mine at catcher, and why.

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »