Wil Myers’ Lost Season

Because I’m apparently a fan of writing about high upside young outfielders whose seasons were marred by injuries, I have to discuss another one in Wil Myers. We all knew about Myers shooting up the prospect lists based on his minor league performances through 2012. But he became much more of a household name after being traded from the Royals to the Rays after the 2012 season in a blockbuster for James Shields. He continued to mash at Triple-A the following year with his new organization, which earned him a promotion to the Majors, debuting in mid-June.

His debut performance was outstanding overall, earning him rookie of the year honors thanks to a 2.4 WAR over 373 plate appearances. He hit for power (.185 ISO), reached base at a .354 clip and appeared to be the future star his minor league career suggested he would be. And his strikeouts, which many worried would become problematic, were indeed high, but not outrageously so.

So naturally given the hype and performance so far to back it up, we ranked him 20th among outfielders in our preseason consensus. Instead, he ended up ranking a sad 108th, losing owners who stuck with him all season $6.18. One of the obvious explanations for his disappointing season was the fractured right wrist he suffered after an outfield collision. It cost him over two and a half months of action between May and August and limited him to just 361 plate appearances. That was barely shy of what he accumulated during his rookie campaign when he wasn’t even called up until the middle of June.

For the full season, Myers collapsed at the plate. He posted a pitiful .275 wOBA, which would have ranked as the sixth worst in baseball if he qualified. But the thing is, just like Bryce Harper, he was bad even before the injury. If you had forgotten just how poorly he was performing, check out his pre-injury stat line:

His power was non-existant and his BABIP sat at just .282, representing a precipitous decline from the lofty .362 level from the year prior. Of course, he was even worse after returning from injury, as his ISO finished the year below .100 and his HR/FB rate was more than cut in half. As you might imagine, his batted ball distance supports the loss of power. Last year, he ranked 41st in distance with a 293 mark, but he slid down the leaderboard this year to just 201st with his 272 foot average.

The decline in BABIP could be attributed to a drop in line drive rate and his IFFB% nearly doubling. But his plate discipline metrics remained rather stable and he actually swung and missed less frequently. So that’s the good news. But it truly makes you wonder where that power went. This is especially true for a guy who hit a combined 37 homers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012, regularly posting .200+ ISO marks and even above .300 at several stops.

Since he does chip in a bunch of steals, he tantalizes with potential five category production. And since he’s posted inflated BABIP marks throughout his minor league career, I’m willing to give him a complete mulligan and take the over on the Steamer .296 projection.

Though I think he was a bit overrated heading into 2014, a busted year will quickly change perceptions. There’s no telling exactly how fantasy owners are now going to view Myers for 2015, but this may very well prove to be the cheapest he comes in many years. I’d buy low if I could.