Outfield 2025 Fantasy Rankings

Fernando Tatis Jr. has not been the same since his shoulder surgery in 2022. In the two seasons preceding the injury, he posted a .965 OPS. Since then, it’s been a .795 OPS. His ISO has dropped from .303 to .201. He did show signs of his power returning with a .311 ISO in September. As a first-round talent, Tatis has the potential to be the top player with a return to his 2021 production.

Julio Rodriguez lost power across the board with his ISO, HardHit%, avgEV, and MaxEV all down. The power was non-existent in the first half (.104 ISO) and not much better in the second half with a .197 ISO. Besides his power decline, he struggled with strikeouts in the first half (27% K%) but they dropped to 22% in the second half. The early struggles could be linked to a Spring Training hand injury and/or a swing adjustment.

After struggling for the first two months (.210/.254/.327), Jackson Chourio found his groove over the last four (.303/.358/.525). He saw gains in power (.117 ISO to .221 ISO) and strikeout rate (27% to 18%) over the same time frame. He could be going in the first round next season.

Jarren Duran’s strikeout rate (36% to 28% to 25% to 22%) and power (.121 ISO to .142 to .187 to .207) have improved for three straight seasons. Most importantly, he was able to play in 160 games. He continued to have a major platoon split with a .665 OPS against lefties and a .910 OPS against righties. He could be at risk of being platooned but his above-average outfield defense keeps him in the lineup.

Even though Jackson Merrill will be just 22 next season, he was a solid fantasy producer from day 1. He provides batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. He improved during the season with a .945 OPS in the second half.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has two major questions surrounding his return. How much time will he miss and how productive will he be once he returns? In 2022, he returned from a similar injury to post a .764 OPS after having a .990 OPS the previous season and 1.012 OPS the next. In that 2022 season, he returned with 15 HR, 29 SB, and a .266 AVG. Temper expectations.

Brenton Doyle’s batting average regressed from .203 to .260 thereby using his speed and power to become a decent fantasy contributor. Dropping his strikeout rate from 35% to 25% fueled the turnaround. He dealt with some knee pain and saw his first-half .815 OPS decline to .681 in the second half. He got worse across the board (more strikeouts, fewer walks, lower ISO, halved his stolen bases). If he recovers from the injury, his upside is a repeat of the first half.

Wyatt Langford had several ups and downs but finished with 16 HR, 19 SB, and a .253 AVG.

If a person values Luis Robert Jr. just off his projection, there is a ton to like. There aren’t many guys projected for a 25/25 season with a decent .244 AVG. The problem is that 2024 still stings with the .224 AVG (.278 OBP), 14 HR, and just 82 R+RBI in 425 PA. He went on the IL to immediately start the season with a hip injury and didn’t return until June 4th. In September, he dealt with hamstring and rib injuries. Also, Robert was trying to stay motivated while being on the historically bad White Sox. In the first half, he posted a .804 OPS and that dropped to a .596 OPS in the second half. He’s a tough guy to value.

Lawrence Butler broke out last season by hitting .262/.317/.490 with 22 HR and 18 SB. In 93 PA in 2023, he only posted a .582 OPS and came back in 2024 improving across the board. Contact rate up 2.4% points. Chase rate down 0.5% points. HardHit% up 10% points. Average Exit Velocity up 2.8 mph. The improvements didn’t even happen in the first half when he posted a .686 OPS (193 PA). Everything came in the second half (.898 OPS) when he tweaked his swing. His fantasy value will come down to keeping those changes.

Everyone can dream back to 2019 when Cody Bellinger posted a .305 AVG with 47 HR and 15 SB. That season is gone after dealing with a shoulder injury. He’s not a 20 HR guy with a 15 SB and a .250 AVG. That’s fine, not game-changing. The other issue with Bellinger is that he has not accumulated over 570 PA in any of the previous three seasons. The decline comes down to his power. In his prime, he had 43% HardHit% from 2017 to 2020. Since then, it has been 34%. To spot a breakout, see if he starts hitting the ball harder.

Jasson Domínguez has been on the fantasy radar for a few years and was poised to break out in 2024 but needed Tommy John surgery after the 2023 season. In June, he came off the IL and was sent to AAA. He accumulated 67 major league plate appearances and hit just .179/.313/.304 but with 2 HR and 5 SB. Projections have him producing similarly to Randy Arozarena and TJ Friedl. Good but not elite.

After a solid ‘24 season (15 HR, 19 SB, .246 AVG), Ceddanne Rafaela should be able to repeat in 2025. He has his flaws: too many strikeouts, too few walks, and middling power, but he’s a nice source of steals and home runs. It helps that he has the defensive versatility to play all over the field thereby remaining in the lineup.

Colton Cowser posted an acceptable season with 24 HR and 9 SB while batting .242/.321/.447 in 561 PA. It was surprising to see his batting average so high with a 31% K%. The problem is that the strikeouts kept going up (35% K% in August, 33% in September) as pitchers attacked him with offspeed pitches (20% SwStr% versus changeups and splitters). A lower-than-expected batting average won’t keep him off the field since he walks 9% of the time and was able to maintain a high OBP over those last two months.

The results (.201 AVG, .619 OPS) for Jordan Walker last season were disappointing. The projections don’t buy the decline and expect a huge bounceback this year (.255 AVG, 22% K%). He struggled against non-fastballs while he saw more sliders (21% SwStr%) than any other pitch. He produced a productive September (.253/.286/.494, 5 HR) after reworking his swing. If he can just repeat September for all six months, a .250 AVG and 30 HR season would be similar to Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández.

I’m 100% out on Brandon Nimmo, even as a late-round flyer. He was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and no hitter has returned to form after struggling with it. In the first half, he posted a .815 OPS and it dropped to .595 OPS in the second half. In 50 post season plate appearances, he had just a .606 OPS. I’m not looking to roster a .600 OPS talent who might miss a decent amount of time because of the injury. I’d love to be wrong but I’m passing on him to take a chance on someone with upside.

Hopes were high for Nolan Jones when he posted a .401 BABIP in 2023 leading to a 20/20 season with a .931 OPS. Besides his BABIP regressing (.401 BABIP to .333) last season, his power fell off (.245 ISO to .094). Most likely the struggles were related to the two IL stints for his back. Also, he missed some time because of a knee injury. He hit better after returning from the last IL stint (.373 BABIP, .269 AVG) but with no power (0 HR, .065 ISO). His 88.2 mph avgEV was 2 mph fewer than the previous season. Additionally, his groundball rate increased from 43% to 52%. It’s impossible to know who will show up in 2025.

Taylor Ward finally put together a full season in the major … ever. The most games he had ever played in was 135 until he got in 156 games last season. The extra playing time allowed him to set career highs in Home Runs, Runs, RBI, and Stolen Bases. It’s tough to believe in a repeat but he should be a steady, balanced contributor.

After being promoted in May, Heliot Ramos was fine (.770 OPS) but then caught fire in June (.946 OPS). From then on, his production kept declining (July: .791 OPS, Aug: .746, Sep: .666). There wasn’t a single item behind the decline, but several stats got worse (e.g. fewer walks, less power). The drop is likely from him playing through plantar fasciitis and a late-season thumb injury. I dinged him quite a bit for plantar fasciitis.

J.J. Bleday cut his strikeout rate (24% K% to 20%) and raised his BABIP (.226 BABIP to .279) to post a decent fantasy season (.242 AVG, 20 HR, 134 R+RBI). Projections don’t see a reason for his batting average to stay up and expect it to be a drag (~.230 AVG). I can’t find a fault in the projections so in roto leagues with batting average as a category, he could be a liability.

After not getting a hit in 19 PA in 2023 and struggling in the first half of 2024 (.582 OPS), Pete Crow-Armstrong took off by hitting .262/.310/.425 with 7 HR and 10 SB in the second half (236 PA). Not one trait stood out but instead, it was improvement across the better (more walks, fewer strikeouts, higher ISO, higher BABIP). Only pay for the second half if the price is right.

While some prospect reports liked Dylan Crews’s power, his fantasy carrying tool is his speed. Across three levels last season, he stole 37 bases. He wasn’t completely devoid of power with 16 combined home runs. In the majors, he struggled to put the ball in the air while posting a 57% GB%. The only pitch type he hit was four-seamers. Up until September 16th, he saw 33% four-seamers (.686 OPS) and just 18% after that point (.641 OPS). He still seems to be adjusting to major league pitching and maybe fantasy managers should wait a year before buying in.

Jake McCarthy just had his best season with 8 HR, 25 SB, and a .285 AVG. Most of his gains came from dropping his strikeout rate for the third straight season (33% K% to 22% to 20% to 16%). He has been improving against sliders with his swinging-strike rate against them dropping from 24% to 22% to 15% to 12%. The one issue McCarthy faces is his playing time getting limited against lefties. Last season he sat ~40% of the time with a lefty on the mound.

After joining the Mariners mid-season, Victor Robles went off hitting .328/.393/.467 with 30 SB in 77 games. After digging in, he made most of the important gains in 2023 when he lowered his strikeout rate from 26% to 14%. Additionally, he posted his two highest Hard Hit rates in the past two seasons. The biggest issue surrounding Robles is his health. Over the past two seasons, he has only played in 127 games and missed time for hand, elbow, finger, hip (x2), hamstring, and back(x2) injuries. He’s only exceeded 407 PA  once (617 PA in 2019). If healthy, Robles is a solid source of batting average and steals.

A Javier Baez-like cliff might be coming for Adolis Garcia since his free-swinging ways are catching up with him. The 31-year-old’s batting average dropped for the third straight season (.250 AVG to .245 to .224). His ISO dropped from .263 to .176. The skill decline is across the board with his Average Exit velocity down 1 mph and Barrel% down 4% points. His Contact% dropped 2.5% points to a four-year low. And the struggles took place before he hurt his knee to end the season.

The 2024 season was the worst of Randy Arozarena’s career with his OPS continuing a downward trend to .720 OPS last season. He’s been able to maintain his power but his batting average dropped to a career-low .219 AVG. Two factors were behind the drop. First, he became extremely passive with a career-high 20% CalledStrike%. Second, his Sprint Speed dropped to a career-low 28.1 ft/s. Projections don’t point to much of a batting average rebound at .238. With the drop in Sprint Speed and the trade to Seattle, his stolen base attempts dropped off. With Tampa, he attempted steals 19% of the time when the next base was open and dropped to 7% with Seattle (only four for seven in stolen base attempts).

After Spencer Steer posted a .271 AVG in 2023, it dropped to .225 AVG last season. He transitioned from helping with batting average to being a drain. All the decline was BABIP-driven (.318 to .260) with his strikeout rate staying the same (21% K%). It’s tough to determine the cause for the drop since his HardHit% increased 3% points. Right now, projections are splitting the difference around a .245 AVG. Looking at previous projections, he was projected for a .232 AVG in 2024 and a .252 AVG last season.

After a couple of seasons of being a top producer, Cedric Mullins is starting to fall off. First, his struggles against lefties (career .636 OPS vs LHP, .788 vs RHP). He gets platooned and failed to reach 500 PA in the past two seasons. Additionally, he has a .233 AVG in the past two seasons. Three reasons are behind the decline. First, he saw a major drop in Sprint Speed from 2022 to 2023 limiting his ability to leg out grounds. Second, he saw a 2% K% jump in strikeouts from 2021-2022 to 2023-2024. Finally, Mullins is airing out every hit less than warning track power. Of all the batters with at least 450 PA in 2024, his 21.5-degree Launch Angle is the 4th highest.

Parker Meadows is fine if he continues to hit like he has so far in the majors (career .730 OPS with 12 HR and 17 SB in 443 PA). With his speed, he should have and project for a higher BABIP than .288. The problem is that he hits everything into the air (48% FB%) but doesn’t have the power to constantly hit home runs. In August, he only had a 34% FB% and ended up hitting .322/.359/.552. Meadows has a nice upside if quits trying to go yard.

I’m not sold on Alec Burleson being a full-time player, especially since he struggles against lefties (career .533 OPS vs LHP, .747 vs RHP). He’s probably maxed out at around 450 PA. Additionally, the team seems to have all outfield and infield spots accounted for with Willson Conteras moving to first base.

After a great 2023 season (28 HR, 20 SB, .268 AVG), Lane Thomas took a major step back in 2024 with his OPS dropping from .783 to .709. For those managers who rostered him in roto leagues, he did reward them with 32 SB. His stolen base attempts when having the opportunity dropped from 33% with Washington to 11% with Cleveland. Besides the drop in stolen bases, Thomas struggled against righties (career .680 OPS vs RHP, .880 OPS vs LHP), he was the only person the team trusted in centerfield to end the season (started in 17 of the last 18 games in CF). One issue that Thomas needs to correct is his struggles against sliders. He saw the pitch a career-high 27% of the time last season while posting a .560 OPS against the pitch and a 15% SwStr%.

First off, Matt Wallner will likely just face righties with a career .510 OPS against lefties and .951 against righties. He got promoted for the first time in May but struggled (.513 OPS). He came up again in July and caught fire (1.269 OPS) but saw his production drop over the next two months with a .956 OPS in August and a .739 OPS in September. A key behind the turnaround was getting his strikeout rate down to “just” 34%. His .385 BABIP is not sustainable and could see some major regression but when he makes contact, it’s hard. Several Savant power categories (e.g. HardHit%, AvgEV, Barrel/BIP, maxEV) are in the top 20. Comps might be prime Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano.

So far in his short career, Evan Carter has a .231 OPS against lefties and a .877 OPS against righties. This discrepancy will keep him as a platoon bat. On top of that, he was limited to just 162 PA last season because of a nagging back issue (needed surgery) that sapped his power (avgEV down 3 mph, ISO down from .339 to .174). I’m not going to target a platoon bat with a nagging back issue.

Sal Frelick would be in the speed-only tier if it weren’t for his platoon issues.

MJ Melendez could also belong in the power-only tier.

Kerry Carpenter looked great coming back from the IL with 18 HR and a .284 AVG in 296 PA. The only problem with those 296 PA, only 28 came against lefties. He struggled against lefties last season (.408 OPS) and his career (.588 OPS). By not facing lefties, he will have between 450 and 500 PA.