Jake Mailhot’s 2025 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Third Base

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Thanks to the additions of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base is feeling a little deeper this year than it has in the recent past.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu 3B Rankings – Tier 1 & 2
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/3B $36-$44 1026.00 6.58 1.51 $36-$44
2 José Ramírez 3B $36-$44 1012.80 6.52 1.50 $36-$44
3 Rafael Devers 3B $36-$44 914.40 6.29 1.45 $28-$35
4 Austin Riley 3B $28-$35 842.50 6.00 1.38 $28-$35

I understand Chad’s concerns about Devers’ shoulder, but his track record of production speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to produce a 147 wRC+ through August with his balky shoulder and only really broke down in September. It’s possible the shoulder will continue to be an issue this year, but it’s just as likely that an offseason of rest might have allowed the joint to heal. I’m fine taking that risk based on his history.

Ottoneu 3B Rankings – Tier 3 & 4
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
5 Manny Machado 3B $21-$27 826.70 5.58 1.31 $21-$27
6 Alex Bregman 3B $21-$27 827.80 5.47 1.25 $21-$27
7 Mark Vientos 3B $15-$20 638.80 5.35 1.28 $15-$20
8 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 3B/OF $15-$20 706.70 5.34 1.25 $21-$27
9 Junior Caminero 3B $15-$20 608.50 5.34 1.22 $10-$14

I like Chisholm, but not as much as Chad does, and I think there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived value. Yes, he increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York but his barrel rate dropped by more than three points. Despite hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York.

Ottoneu 3B Rankings – Tier 5 & 6
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
10 Max Muncy 3B $10-$14 605.50 5.25 1.26 $6-$9
11 Royce Lewis 3B $10-$14 516.90 5.14 1.26 $15-$20
12 Matt Chapman 3B $10-$14 768.90 5.13 1.23 $10-$14
13 Isaac Paredes 1B/3B $10-$14 732.60 5.06 1.22 $10-$14
14 Alec Bohm 1B/3B $6-$9 715.80 4.97 1.19 $6-$9
15 Jake Burger 1B/3B $6-$9 677.90 4.95 1.22 $6-$9

Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching hot breakout he enjoyed in 2023 last year. Some of those struggles were out of his control — his BABIP fell by 100 points — but he also lost a bit of contact quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% home run rate was probably always a little unstable. I expect better things from him in 2025, but there’s always the looming injury concerns and I’m a bit worried about how his body is going to hold up if the Twins actually decide to move him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.

Ottoneu 3B Rankings – Tier 7 & 8
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
16 Eugenio Suárez 3B $3-$5 741.40 4.80 1.17 $3-$5
17 Nolan Arenado 3B $3-$5 715.10 4.79 1.15 $6-$9
18 Josh Jung 3B $3-$5 514.50 4.71 1.14 $3-$5
19 Ryan McMahon 3B $3-$5 693.80 4.59 1.10 $3-$5
20 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B $3-$5 585.70 4.58 1.13 $1-$2
21 Coby Mayo 1B/3B $3-$5 103.20 4.25 1.07 $3-$5
22 Jonah Bride 1B/3B $1-$2 340.60 4.55 1.12 $0-$1
23 Jose Miranda 1B/3B $1-$2 496.00 4.27 1.14 $1-$2
24 Matt Vierling 3B/OF $1-$2 572.80 4.24 1.07 $1-$2
25 Jace Jung 3B $1-$2 257.40 4.03 1.00 $1-$2

I originally had Suárez and Arenado a tier higher but they both have pretty big question marks surrounding them. For the former, it’s his streaky performance that gives me pause. Yes, Suárez was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season last year, but his first half was atrocious and it’s hard to tell which version of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions about where he’ll eventually end up after the Cardinals inevitably trade him this offseason give me some pause.

Ottoneu 3B Rankings – Tier 9 & 10
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
26 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B/3B $0-$1 415.20 4.42 1.09 $1-$2
27 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B $0-$1 479.10 3.99 0.98 $0-$1
28 Andrés Chaparro 1B/3B $0-$1 114.70 3.93 0.98 $0-$1
29 Noelvi Marte 3B $0-$1 222.20 3.24 0.85 $1-$2
30 Cam Smith 3B $0-$1 N/A N/A N/A $1-$2
31 Eguy Rosario 3B $0 309.20 4.31 1.08 $0
32 Yoán Moncada 3B $0 388.40 4.04 0.99 $0
33 DJ LeMahieu 1B/3B $0 419.80 4.00 0.98 $0
34 Luis Urías 3B $0 227.50 3.87 1.03 $0
35 Donovan Solano 1B/3B $0 401.00 3.85 1.12 $0
36 Jon Berti 3B $0 400.90 3.77 1.13 $0
37 Anthony Rendon 3B $0 271.00 3.75 0.93 $0-$1
38 Ramón Urías 3B $0 354.80 3.55 1.07 $0
39 Miguel Vargas 3B/OF $0 294.40 3.40 0.90 $0-$1
40 Gio Urshela 1B/3B $0 397.30 3.37 0.94 $0
41 Brady House 3B $0 221.20 3.33 0.83 $0-$1
42 Elehuris Montero 1B/3B $0 226.00 3.10 0.86 $0
43 Zach Dezenzo 1B/3B $0 49.70 2.98 0.87 $0-$1
44 Addison Barger 3B/OF $0 185.80 2.93 0.86 $0-$1
45 Nick Senzel 3B $0 243.70 2.91 0.85 $0
46 Bryan Ramos 3B $0 70.60 2.48 0.73 $0





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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Lou BrownMember since 2017
16 days ago

Look at Suarez’s career monthly splits, and you’ll know exactly which version of Suarez you’ll get. He can be rostered for $10-12 if you know he needs to be treated like a $1 player until the summer.