Jake Mailhot’s 2025 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Starting Pitcher

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.

If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 1 & 2
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
1 Tarik Skubal $36-$44 1087.80 6.05 $36-$44
2 Paul Skenes $36-$44 996.60 6.01 $36-$44
3 Chris Sale $28-$35 974.10 5.83 $21-$27
4 Garrett Crochet $28-$35 894.90 5.76 $28-$35
5 Tyler Glasnow $28-$35 763.90 5.68 $28-$35
6 Blake Snell $28-$35 891.70 5.63 $28-$35
7 Zack Wheeler $28-$35 1051.20 5.44 $36-$44
8 Cole Ragans $28-$35 883.40 5.23 $28-$35

The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 3
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
9 Spencer Strider $21-$27 825.30 5.94 $21-$27
10 Jacob deGrom $21-$27 745.70 5.89 $21-$27
11 Shohei Ohtani $21-$27 700.50 5.25 N/A
12 Dylan Cease $21-$27 970.20 5.23 $21-$27
13 Sonny Gray $21-$27 898.60 5.23 $15-$20
14 Yoshinobu Yamamoto $21-$27 726.50 5.22 $28-$35
15 Framber Valdez $21-$27 957.90 5.16 $28-$35
16 Logan Gilbert $21-$27 1022.20 5.14 $28-$35
17 Logan Webb $21-$27 1033.00 5.06 $21-$27
18 Max Fried $21-$27 835.80 5.06 $21-$27
19 Shane McClanahan $21-$27 728.00 5.06 $21-$27
20 Corbin Burnes $21-$27 962.20 5.04 $28-$35
21 Michael King $21-$27 833.70 5.04 $21-$27
22 Justin Steele $21-$27 787.20 5.03 $15-$20
23 George Kirby $21-$27 909.00 5.00 $28-$35
24 Gerrit Cole $21-$27 855.60 4.98 $21-$27

I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.

I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 4
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
25 Hunter Greene $15-$20 784.50 5.01 $10-$14
26 Zac Gallen $15-$20 850.30 4.92 $21-$27
27 Kodai Senga $15-$20 779.60 4.88 $15-$20
28 Joe Ryan $15-$20 723.00 4.85 $15-$20
29 Pablo López $15-$20 911.40 4.84 $21-$27
30 Tanner Bibee $15-$20 801.90 4.81 $15-$20
31 Spencer Schwellenbach $15-$20 737.70 4.81 $15-$20
32 Bryan Woo $15-$20 613.50 4.81 $10-$14
33 Freddy Peralta $15-$20 808.30 4.78 $15-$20
34 Roki Sasaki $15-$20 623.10 4.78 $21-$27
35 Luis Castillo $15-$20 858.00 4.77 $15-$20
36 Bryce Miller $15-$20 797.00 4.75 $10-$14
37 Tanner Houck $15-$20 777.80 4.72 $6-$9
38 Grayson Rodriguez $15-$20 647.90 4.71 $15-$20
39 Cristopher Sánchez $15-$20 762.60 4.68 $10-$14
40 Shota Imanaga $15-$20 803.30 4.66 $21-$27
41 Hunter Brown $15-$20 766.90 4.66 $15-$20
42 Bailey Ober $15-$20 767.70 4.65 $15-$20

Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.

I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 5 & 6
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
43 Drew Rasmussen $10-$14 572.50 5.38 $6-$9
44 Reynaldo López $10-$14 733.30 4.97 $10-$14
45 Kevin Gausman $10-$14 867.20 4.71 $6-$9
46 Reese Olson $10-$14 614.60 4.70 $6-$9
47 Sandy Alcantara $10-$14 846.40 4.66 $10-$14
48 Jared Jones $10-$14 669.80 4.60 $10-$14
49 Ryan Pepiot $10-$14 638.70 4.60 $10-$14
50 Seth Lugo $10-$14 842.80 4.59 $10-$14
51 Aaron Nola $10-$14 879.90 4.58 $15-$20
52 Luis Gil $10-$14 691.30 4.55 $10-$14
53 Zach Eflin $10-$14 754.70 4.52 $10-$14
54 Yusei Kikuchi $10-$14 755.10 4.52 $10-$14
55 Jesús Luzardo $10-$14 637.90 4.51 $3-$5
56 Brandon Woodruff $6-$9 671.50 5.03 $3-$5
57 Clay Holmes $6-$9 593.50 4.91 $3-$5
58 Jack Flaherty $6-$9 721.20 4.60 $6-$9
59 Eury Pérez $6-$9 394.30 4.60 $3-$5
60 Nathan Eovaldi $6-$9 745.40 4.58 $3-$5
61 David Festa $6-$9 459.50 4.57 $0-$1
62 Ranger Suárez $6-$9 695.30 4.56 $3-$5
63 Nick Lodolo $6-$9 515.00 4.56 $3-$5
64 Clarke Schmidt $6-$9 568.50 4.53 $6-$9
65 Gavin Williams $6-$9 518.60 4.51 $10-$14
66 Nestor Cortes $6-$9 678.80 4.49 $1-$2
67 Sean Manaea $6-$9 747.40 4.48 $6-$9
68 Carlos Rodón $6-$9 727.30 4.44 $10-$14
69 Jeffrey Springs $6-$9 607.80 4.44 $6-$9
70 Yu Darvish $6-$9 634.00 4.43 $3-$5
71 Shane Baz $6-$9 550.00 4.28 $6-$9
72 Walker Buehler $6-$9 458.90 3.58 $3-$5

We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.

I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 7 & 8
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
73 Kyle Bradish $3-$5 699.80 5.38 $1-$2
74 Ben Brown $3-$5 310.40 5.16 $0-$1
75 Kumar Rocker $3-$5 588.60 4.82 $6-$9
76 Dustin May $3-$5 526.00 4.80 $1-$2
77 José Soriano $3-$5 575.90 4.66 $0-$1
78 Osvaldo Bido $3-$5 355.90 4.64 $0-$1
79 Landen Roupp $3-$5 374.00 4.62 $0-$1
80 Max Scherzer $3-$5 566.20 4.58 $0-$1
81 Matthew Boyd $3-$5 459.90 4.53 $1-$2
82 Nick Pivetta $3-$5 677.70 4.47 $3-$5
83 Robbie Ray $3-$5 621.30 4.41 $1-$2
84 David Peterson $3-$5 589.00 4.41 $1-$2
85 MacKenzie Gore $3-$5 695.70 4.37 $1-$2
86 Nick Martinez $3-$5 621.70 4.37 $3-$5
87 Brandon Pfaadt $3-$5 666.70 4.36 $6-$9
88 Kris Bubic $3-$5 485.50 4.36 $0
89 DJ Herz $3-$5 554.50 4.34 $0-$1
90 Edward Cabrera $3-$5 517.40 4.33 $1-$2
91 Michael McGreevy $3-$5 441.10 4.33 $0
92 Taj Bradley $3-$5 638.90 4.32 $3-$5
93 Mitch Keller $3-$5 774.50 4.31 $1-$2
94 Michael Wacha $3-$5 669.30 4.31 $3-$5
95 Merrill Kelly 켈리 $3-$5 622.70 4.29 $0-$1
96 Jackson Jobe $3-$5 444.30 3.60 $6-$9
97 Shane Bieber $1-$2 576.90 4.74 $3-$5
98 Joe Musgrove $1-$2 551.30 4.74 $0-$1
99 Robert Gasser $1-$2 351.00 4.71 $0
100 Brant Hurter $1-$2 360.20 4.68 $0
101 Clayton Kershaw $1-$2 500.60 4.61 $0-$1
102 Cody Poteet $1-$2 222.70 4.43 $0
103 Alex Cobb $1-$2 576.70 4.42 $0-$1
104 Quinn Mathews $1-$2 460.70 4.41 $1-$2
105 Aaron Ashby $1-$2 431.30 4.41 $0-$1
106 Sawyer Gipson-Long $1-$2 310.00 4.39 $0
107 John Means $1-$2 208.70 4.36 $0
108 Luis Garcia $1-$2 497.80 4.33 $0
109 Yariel Rodríguez $1-$2 459.80 4.31 $0-$1
110 Joe Boyle $1-$2 279.70 4.30 $0-$1
111 Jordan Hicks $1-$2 479.60 4.29 $0-$1
112 Reid Detmers $1-$2 539.70 4.28 $0-$1
113 Hayden Birdsong $1-$2 447.80 4.28 $1-$2
114 Joey Cantillo $1-$2 362.50 4.28 $0-$1
115 Tylor Megill $1-$2 402.20 4.27 $1-$2
116 Bowden Francis $1-$2 538.60 4.23 $6-$9
117 Cody Bradford $1-$2 353.00 4.23 $1-$2
118 Chris Bassitt $1-$2 746.20 4.22 $1-$2
119 Charlie Morton $1-$2 671.90 4.22 $0-$1
120 Cristian Javier $1-$2 492.30 4.21 $1-$2
121 Eduardo Rodriguez $1-$2 535.60 4.20 $0-$1
122 Tristan Beck $1-$2 294.70 4.20 $0
123 Kyle Harrison $1-$2 536.60 4.19 $1-$2
124 Cade Cavalli $1-$2 409.80 4.19 $0
125 Noah Schultz $1-$2 342.30 4.19 $3-$5
126 Brayan Bello $1-$2 669.30 4.18 $1-$2
127 Justin Verlander $1-$2 573.70 4.18 $1-$2
128 Andrew Painter $1-$2 330.00 4.18 $6-$9
129 Andre Pallante $1-$2 551.30 4.16 $0-$1
130 Spencer Arrighetti $1-$2 584.10 4.15 $6-$9
131 Kutter Crawford $1-$2 643.40 4.14 $1-$2
132 Ronel Blanco $1-$2 634.00 4.13 $3-$5
133 Jon Gray $1-$2 551.50 4.13 $0
134 Kyle Wright $1-$2 452.00 4.11 $0
135 Brady Singer $1-$2 688.60 4.09 $1-$2
136 Tyler Mahle $1-$2 523.10 4.07 $0
137 Tobias Myers $1-$2 554.10 4.06 $3-$5
138 AJ Smith-Shawver $1-$2 331.30 4.06 $0-$1
139 Erick Fedde 페디 $1-$2 684.60 4.04 $1-$2
140 Zack Littell $1-$2 549.60 4.02 $0-$1
141 José Berríos $1-$2 751.30 3.99 $0-$1
142 Luis Severino $1-$2 668.20 3.96 $1-$2
143 Jameson Taillon $1-$2 642.20 3.96 $1-$2
144 Aaron Civale $1-$2 565.50 3.96 $0
145 Mitchell Parker $1-$2 589.80 3.93 $0-$1
146 Ryne Nelson $1-$2 509.10 3.89 $3-$5
147 Simeon Woods Richardson $1-$2 520.80 3.87 $0-$1
148 Lucas Giolito $1-$2 543.50 3.83 $0
149 J.T. Ginn $1-$2 350.10 3.80 $0
150 Rhett Lowder $1-$2 428.00 3.75 $3-$5

For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.

Ottoneu SP Rankings – Tier 9 & 10
Rank Player Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/IP Chad’s Tier
151 Lance McCullers Jr. $0-$1 363.80 4.64 $0
152 Braxton Garrett $0-$1 574.70 4.57 $0-$1
153 Grant Holmes $0-$1 443.00 4.54 $0-$1
154 Michael Grove $0-$1 253.10 4.34 $0
155 Patrick Sandoval $0-$1 466.30 4.32 $0
156 Spencer Turnbull $0-$1 354.10 4.27 $0
157 DL Hall $0-$1 348.20 4.14 $1-$2
158 Ty Madden $0-$1 304.70 4.10 $0
159 Joe Ross $0-$1 280.60 4.09 $0
160 Christian Scott $0-$1 266.20 4.06 $0-$1
161 Andrew Heaney $0-$1 609.50 4.05 $0-$1
162 Will Warren $0-$1 324.80 4.04 $0-$1
163 Jacob Misiorowski $0-$1 288.40 4.01 $1-$2
164 Landon Knack $0-$1 308.00 4.00 $0
165 Hayden Wesneski $0-$1 368.30 3.99 $0-$1
166 Frankie Montas $0-$1 588.20 3.98 $0-$1
167 Dean Kremer $0-$1 566.60 3.98 $0
168 Chris Paddack $0-$1 430.70 3.98 $0-$1
169 Jordan Montgomery $0-$1 549.10 3.94 $0-$1
170 Sean Burke $0-$1 499.80 3.93 $0-$1
171 Gavin Stone $0-$1 497.00 3.93 $0-$1
172 Zebby Matthews $0-$1 363.80 3.92 $0-$1
173 Matt Manning $0-$1 283.20 3.92 $0
174 Casey Mize $0-$1 489.60 3.91 $0-$1
175 Ryan Weathers $0-$1 480.90 3.89 $0-$1
176 Luis L. Ortiz $0-$1 508.70 3.87 $1-$2
177 Cade Povich $0-$1 411.90 3.87 $1-$2
178 Mitch Spence $0-$1 528.20 3.86 $0
179 Marcus Stroman $0-$1 526.10 3.86 $0
180 Bubba Chandler $0-$1 382.20 3.86 $3-$5
181 Chase Burns $0-$1 #N/A #N/A $1-$2
182 Hagen Smith $0-$1 #N/A #N/A $0-$1
183 Brandon Sproat $0-$1 #N/A #N/A $0-$1
184 Bobby Miller $0-$1 367.60 3.82 $3-$5
185 Richard Fitts $0-$1 330.40 3.82 $0
186 Tony Gonsolin $0-$1 428.10 3.81 $0
187 Tomoyuki Sugano $0-$1 524.10 3.72 $0
188 Max Meyer $0-$1 433.40 3.65 $0-$1
189 Hurston Waldrep $0-$1 249.20 3.62 $1-$2
190 Chase Dollander $0-$1 300.60 3.54 $0-$1
191 Jakob Junis $0 368.20 4.27 $0
192 Emmet Sheehan $0 290.30 4.22 $0
193 Drey Jameson $0 257.30 4.21 $0
194 Johan Oviedo $0 556.60 4.02 $0
195 Steven Matz $0 395.10 4.02 $0
196 Yilber Diaz $0 295.60 4.02 $0
197 Ryan Yarbrough $0 329.50 3.97 $0
198 Keaton Winn $0 232.00 3.97 $0
199 Alex Faedo $0 227.20 3.97 $0
200 Alek Manoah $0 398.00 3.96 $0
201 Chase Silseth $0 256.60 3.96 $0
202 Jose Quintana $0 622.50 3.95 $0
203 Bryce Elder $0 462.10 3.93 $0
204 Alec Marsh $0 488.00 3.89 $0
205 Davis Martin $0 430.10 3.88 $0
206 Mike Clevinger $0 427.30 3.87 $0
207 Chris Murphy $0 276.20 3.87 $0
208 Jhony Brito $0 261.70 3.87 $0
209 Cooper Criswell $0 321.20 3.83 $0
210 JT Brubaker $0 308.40 3.82 $0
211 Kyle Gibson $0 640.50 3.81 $0
212 Albert Suarez $0 412.00 3.80 $1-$2
213 Paul Blackburn $0 378.00 3.80 $0
214 Javier Assad $0 532.60 3.78 $0-$1
215 Dane Dunning $0 447.90 3.78 $0
216 Matt Waldron $0 482.00 3.77 $0
217 Jake Irvin $0 625.50 3.75 $0-$1
218 Michael Soroka $0 370.60 3.74 $0
219 Ryan Feltner $0 577.50 3.70 $0
220 Jack Leiter $0 378.60 3.70 $1-$2
221 Kenta Maeda $0 360.20 3.70 $0
222 Louie Varland $0 293.10 3.70 $0-$1
223 Miles Mikolas $0 648.90 3.69 $0
224 Slade Cecconi $0 301.10 3.69 $0
225 Jose Suarez $0 266.60 3.69 $0
226 Michael Lorenzen $0 502.80 3.68 $0
227 Lance Lynn $0 524.40 3.64 $0
228 Jordan Wicks $0 262.80 3.64 $0
229 Trevor Rogers $0 412.20 3.63 $0
230 JP Sears $0 621.50 3.62 $0-$1
231 Andrew Abbott $0 510.80 3.61 $0-$1
232 Mason Black $0 286.40 3.61 $0
233 Tyler Anderson $0 595.90 3.58 $0
234 Adrian Houser $0 285.90 3.58 $0
235 Alex Wood $0 339.60 3.55 $0
236 Colin Rea $0 510.60 3.54 $0
237 Keider Montero $0 354.40 3.53 $0
238 Trevor Williams $0 399.50 3.52 $1-$2
239 Graham Ashcraft $0 344.70 3.51 $0
240 Bailey Falter $0 459.40 3.50 $0
241 Randy Vasquez $0 436.80 3.50 $0
242 Germán Márquez $0 508.40 3.49 $0
243 Quinn Priester $0 254.00 3.48 $0
244 José Urquidy $0 347.80 3.46 $0
245 Griffin Canning $0 474.40 3.44 $0-$1
246 J.P. France $0 311.30 3.43 $0
247 Jonathan Cannon $0 507.60 3.42 $0
248 Martín Pérez $0 479.10 3.41 $0
249 Ben Lively 라이블리 $0 472.00 3.41 $0
250 Xzavion Curry $0 266.60 3.36 $0
251 Ross Stripling $0 333.00 3.35 $0
252 Caden Dana $0 320.50 3.34 $1-$2
253 Joan Adon $0 226.70 3.34 $0
254 Joey Lucchesi $0 248.80 3.33 $0
255 Joey Estes $0 447.40 3.30 $0
256 Josiah Gray $0 419.30 3.30 $0-$1
257 Drew Thorpe $0 305.80 3.26 $0
258 Tommy Henry $0 268.40 3.24 $0
259 Triston McKenzie $0 387.20 3.20 $1-$2
260 Dylan Dodd $0 230.60 3.20 $0
261 Kyle Hendricks $0 408.50 3.19 $0
262 Logan Allen $0 345.30 3.16 $0
263 Cal Quantrill $0 432.80 3.13 $0
264 Emerson Hancock $0 260.00 3.12 $0-$1
265 Patrick Corbin $0 472.60 3.02 $0
266 Marco Gonzales $0 268.80 3.00 $0
267 Antonio Senzatela $0 359.50 2.99 $0
268 Carson Spiers $0 255.30 2.96 $0
269 Taijuan Walker $0 342.30 2.95 $0
270 Dakota Hudson $0 254.50 2.90 $0
271 Chris Flexen 플렉센 $0 373.90 2.87 $0
272 Valente Bellozo $0 279.00 2.87 $0
273 Kyle Freeland $0 401.10 2.86 $0
274 Austin Gomber $0 443.20 2.85 $0
275 Nick Nastrini $0 239.40 2.78 $0





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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PillsburyFlowboyMember since 2024
10 days ago

Which projection system are you using to produce these PPI projections? They don’t quite line up with the scratch maths I’ve been doing with Steamer and ZiPS.