Third Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings

2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024. These were all seasons in which José Ramírez finished as the best fantasy third baseman as calculated by year-to-date settings on the auction calculator. It’s hard to argue with that. Ramírez’s projected counting stats (Steamer) aren’t well above everyone else in this top tier, but they’re close. His projected batting average isn’t the best, but will Vladimir Guerrero Jr really hit .300? Ramírez isn’t on the most potent offense in the league, but Cleveland is in the middle of the pack. When we get down to it, Ramírez just does it. The consistency in his plate appearances over the years has made him such an easy choice in top rounds of drafts in any format. Finally, we get to the real reason Ramírez stands out as the number one third baseman for 2025; stolen bases. Add an easy 20 downside/40 upside stolen bases to all the other players’ stat lines in this tier, and you have…José Ramírez.

It seems unfair for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to suddenly be a top third baseman after only 12 games played there in 2024. But, that’s fantasy baseball. He’s eligible and it seems possible he could play third base more often for the Blue Jays according to some reports. That doesn’t seem to have much implication on his fantasy relevance, but he now has even more flexibility. What is that flexibility worth? I don’t have a number to attach to it, but as a 1B Guerrero is numero uno in front of Bryce Harper according to the auction calculator. He’s the only player besides Jake Burger in my top ten who can move between the 1B and 3B spots. If you spend a high draft pick on Guerro early, you can wait on either position (1B or 3B) and attack other roster spots. Guerrero is coming off a season where he put up a career-best .323/.396/.544 slash line and he’ll only be 26 years old in 2025.

My preseason number one in 2024, Rafael Devers, finished 7th. But, due to injury, he finished the year with a plate appearance total that was his lowest since 2018 if you exclude the 2020 season. Still, the mark was 601! While his counting stats diminished somewhat from where they stood in 2023, all his rate stats remained steady. The only noticeable performance change came in his increased K%. Otherwise, all other important rate stats went up. His BB% increased along with his batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and wOBA. This is a 28-year-old who is doing amazing things. Still, like last season I’m torn between Austin Riley and Rafael Devers. Like last season, Devers wins out. Let’s make a quick player comparison:

Over the past three seasons and from this zoomed in view, Riley and Devers have looked like the same player. So, you want to look at park factors? Fenway rates out to a 96 for left-handed home runs and Truist at 97. The Red Sox team OBP was .319 to, though it was a down year for the Braves, Atlanta’s .309. Riley bested Devers according to the auction calculator’s year-to-date settings in 22′ and 23′, but Devers won out in 21′. With the same amount of playing time being projected for 2025, these two players could easily finish one right behind the other by the end of the season, but I’ve got Devers winning by a hair.

In barrooms, living rooms, and basements across fantasy baseball land just before the 2024 season kicked off, you could hear people talk about Manny Machado’s shoulder injury as if they had just taken off their latex gloves, scrubbed their hands clean, and asked which pharmacy was preferred for prescription pick-up. Everyone’s a doctor nowadays. But the real surgeon must have done great work because Manny was back at the keystone for the Padres by the first pitch in Korea. On the season, he was Manny. His season slash line (.275/.325/.472) was down from his career line (.279/.338/.488), but ever-so-slightly. He put up the best Z-Contact%, Barrel%, maxEV, and HardHit% since his excellent 2021 season, and there hasn’t been a season since 2014 (excluding 2020) where he has not reached 600 plate appearances. Going into his age 32 season, Manny will be Manny will be Manny, and you shouldn’t count him out.

At first pass, Jazz Chisholm Jr. was in the top three of this rankings last. He appears to be in his own little cluster when you consider the possibility of a 30-30 season (HR/SB). No, he’s not in the same cluster as José Ramírez who is projected to hit .279 and walk nearly 10% of the time to Jazz’s .245, 8%. Still, he’s close enough. In this first round of rankings, Jazz Chisholm Jr. gets penalized for too much unpredictability in his playing time. What’s up with his elbow? UCL injuries typically don’t go away on their own, but perhaps Jazz is different. His 147 games played (621 plate appearances) was by far a career-best and he’s projected to do it again in 2025, but I’m not totally buying it. You could argue that his skills, regardless of playing time, are worth a high price, but Jazz still has a significant amount of swing and miss in his game that leads to exaggerated highs and lows. If you rostered Jazz during his incredible first 149 plate appearances with the Yankees where he slashed .299/.356/.533, hit nine home runs, and stole 14 bases, you’re probably wondering why he’s ranked so low. If you had Jazz on your team during his first 156 plate appearances of 2024 with the Marlins where he hit only five home runs and stole eight bases, you probably are more likely to understand. Granted during that “down” period with the Marlins to start the season he still slugged .400, but that’s just above the .399 league average and not good enough for a top-tier third baseman. With most other players, we’d say it doesn’t matter. That the end of season line is what you’re after. But, Jazz’s value for 2025 depends greatly on his health and as more reports come out to help us keyboard kinesiologists better predict that playing time, he may begin to move either up or down the ranks.

Mark Vientos proved it last season with his .266/.322/.516 slash line and 27 home runs. But, it came with plenty of reasons to predict a regression in 2025 as Steamer has with a .248/.314/.468 slash line projection. Here are just a few of those reasons; a well-below-average zone contact rate, a near-30% K%, struggles hitting sliders, struggles (some) against same-handed pitchers, and a high BABIP (.324). Yet, he did it. He increased his BB%, wOBA, and Barrel%. He’s shown really steady growth as a young player, namely his ability to hit fastballs and stay in the lineup for more than 400 plate appearances. Steamer is not expecting a slash line repeat but it is expecting power. 35 home runs and a slugging percentage of .468 is a great combo and Vientos beats out Caminero simply because he’s proven his ability in the big leagues and Caminero hasn’t.

Junior Caminero’s .246/.296/.412 career MLB slash line through 50 games looks different from his expected .262./.315/.461 in 2025. The question is, do you believe it? He’s expected to hit near-30 home runs. Do you believe that too? He’s certainly showcased skills in his 11.8 Barrel%, and 45.1 HardHit%, both above average. But his zone contact rate needs to increase as does his ability to hit breaking balls. He’s also a Tampa Bay Ray and that typically comes with unpredictable playing time projections, particularly for young players. He’s in the top ten because his projection places him there, the skills he’s showcased support it, and he has pedigree. But, take caution when seeing the shiny new toy and thinking it will change your fantasy baseball life.

Last offseason, it was reported that Alex Bregman was working on his bat speed going into his last season before free agency. It paid off. In 2024 he saw a rise in his HardHit%, maxEV, Barrel%, and slugging percentage. This is all coming from a guy whose career slugging percentage is .483. Those slight power gains came with an increased K%, a decreased BB% (resulting in a lower OBP), and less zone contact, but these are the sacrifices one has to make. In every season since 2018 besides the 2021 season when Bregman lost significant time due to a quad strain and the shortened 2020 season, he’s finished as a top-10 first baseman according to the auction calculator’s year-to-date settings. This was the theme of last year’s ranking where he was so expertly ranked at eighth and so expertly finished at eighth; consistency in his end-of-season stat line. In my original rankings I wrote, “He’s good for 20 home runs, above-average slugging, and a top-ten finish”, but I’m second guessing myself upon seeing the OOPSY projection that expects a declined slugging percentage from 2024’s .453 to a projected .417. OOPSY still projects 20 home runs as I suspect should be the floor, but the difference in OOPSY compared to Steamer in combination with the fact Bregman is still unsigned makes me lower my expectation.

Jake Burger was ranked at number 17 before the 2024 season and finished at 10th with a cool 29 home runs, a 12.3% Barrel rate, and a .460 slugging percentage. Steamer has him taking a step back from a 2024 slash line of .250/.301/.460 to .246/.303/.448. Steamer has him hitting one more home run in 2025 (30) than he hit in 2024 (29). Oddly enough, Burger has hit exactly .250 in each of his last three seasons and you should expect around the same in 2025. His move from Miami to Texas adds some uncertainty to his playing time and likely brings his plate appearance projection down. Though RosterResource has him penciled in as the full-time DH, he’ll be competing with more bats, and may be dropped down in the order, but he gets a decent park factor boost as a righty moving from Miami (95 HR as R park factor) to Texas (101 HR as R park factor).

It seems safe to expect 20+ home runs from Matt Chapman in 2025. Heck, he’s hit that mark in six out of his last seven seasons if you ignore 2020. It also seems safe to expect a slugging percentage of around .430 as that is his average across the past four seasons. Steamer has him at .437. Yet some of the metrics I typically use when analyzing hitters (Z-Contact%, Barrel%, HardHit%) haven’t been as consistent. They haven’t been wild and all over the place, but still, he’s not as consistent as someone like Ryan McMahon; someone predictable. What has been consistent is Chapman’s xwOBA which factors in contact quality. So, who knows what to expect? Originally ranked 13th, Chapman has moved up a few spots due to his OOPSY projection expecting 31 home runs! That’s a career second best. Furthermore, OOPSY likes his slugging percentage coming close to 2024’s .463 at .457. Chapman goes up with OOPSY, we’ll see if he stays there with the BAT and ATC.

Ryan McMahon’s plate appearance consistency over the past four seasons has produced an average slash line very close to the .240/.323/.407 he’s projected for in 2025. McMahon is not necessarily consistent throughout the whole season. He tends to fluctuate in K%, BB%, and batting average over the 162-season slog, but the law of averages kicks in and makes it difficult to expect anything more or less in 2025, so long as he can stay healthy and repeat 150 games. He has bulked his way to 20+ home runs in each of the past four seasons and there’s no reason to expect him not to do that again in 2025.

The steady decline in Nolan Arenado’s power metrics as he heads into his age 34 season is alarming:

His slugging percentage has been on a downward slope since a solid slugging year of .533 in 2022 to .459 in 2023 to .394 in 2024. But he improved upon 2023’s .266 batting average with .272 in 2024. It’s possible that this is the type of player we should expect to see from here on out in Arenado; still an excellent hitter with a little less power. Steamer is projecting…not that. Instead, Steamer expects a lower batting average and a resurgence of power; .257/.315/.425. But, Arendao’s decline in Barrel% from 2022 to 2024 (8.2% -> 7.3% -> 3.2%), and steady zone contact rate within the same period (90.8% -> 91.9% -> 91.9%) better aligns with my story and I’m sticking with it.

Would Luis Rengifo’s batting average have finished in the .300’s had he played in more games in 2024? Maybe. He’s the type of player who puts the ball in play and uses his speed to get on base. Then, he steals second. Rengifo’s combination of batting average and speed makes him a valuable asset to fantasy teams. You just need to build around him. He’s not projected to hit above a .318 slugging percentage, but he is expected to hit 17 home runs. Imagine that. He’s never hit the ball with authority on a regular basis as measured by HardHit% or Barrel%, but he makes great zone contact. He won’t be playing on an offensively explosive team, but he will likely bat in front of Mike Trout and recent addition Jorge Soler.

Isaac Paredes’ move to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker trade gives him a value boost. It’s no secret that Paredes pulls for power and Houston’s ballpark makes it easier to pull the ball for home runs. He’s expected to hit 23 home runs by Steamer, which is right between his 2023 total (31) and his 2024 total (19), but that projection may change once systems adjust to his new home stadium. Paredes also gets a boost in OBP leagues as his career walk rate of 11% is better than 2024’s league average of 8.2% and he’s projected for better than average on-base percentage.

Alec Bohm is projected like Luis Rengifo with fewer stolen bases. Like Regnifo his projected batting average puts him above the league average. Unlike Regnifo, Bohm plays on a Phillies team that finished the 2024 season with a .325 on-base percentage, the 5th best in the league. The Angels finished with .301, the 4th worst in the league. What Bohm is missing in the stolen base projection when compared to Rengifo, he makes up for with slightly better quality of contact metrics and offensive opportunity.

Royce Lewis’s best accumulation mark is far shy of Jung, at 82 games and 325 plate appearances. His slash line was less impressive, yet still fantasy-relevant; .233/.295/.452. Last season, I had Lewis ranked 7th and Jung at 11th and now they are both hanging just above the top 20 line. Both players bring tremendous health risks and tremendous upside.

Eugenio Suárez hasn’t missed the 20-home run mark since 2015 when he was 23 years old. He consistently finishes with power totals at the end of each season. He’s projected for 23 bombs in 2025. You have to endure long periods of little to no production, he’s projected to hit .236, but you also get a player who hits the ball hard and has proven that he can pick himself up from slump town. There’s not a whole lot to say about a player who’s been doing it for 10-plus years. Fit his projection into your roster like a puzzle piece and you’ll do just fine.

Josh Jung and Royce Lewis may need their own tier called the “Who Knows?” tier. These are two players with great talent but injury-plagued backgrounds. Jung’s 2023 season ended with 122 games, 515 plate appearances, and a World Series title. But, that’s the most games he’s ever played at the major league level. He had an excellent slash line of .266/.315/.467 and hit 23 homers.

Jordan Westburg’s 18 home runs in 2024 surprised many who pinned him for a batting average-first type of player. He did that in only 107 games, as a broken hand kept him out of the back half of the season. With health and accumulation, he could hit 20 in 2025 along with a solid above-league-average slash line. He may not stick at third base as there are a lot of moving parts in the O’s roster. Emmanuel Rivera, Coby Mayo, and Ramón Urías are all fully capable of playing third base, but Westburg has better L/R splits than any of those players and is much more likely to be an everyday player in 2025.

Willi Castro beats out Maikel Garcia, but not by much. Both players bring speed and positional flexibility, but Castro provides more pop and Garcia more batting average.

Now that Connor Norby has a better chance of playing a full season with the Marlins, we’ll have to see what he can do. He’s projected for nearly 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases making him a nice late-round pick, but he lacks in batting average and team support.

Brendan Donovan’s slash line regressed somewhat as he posted a career-high 652 plate appearances and it could be that a large enough sample has revealed who he really is. If that is a .278/.354/.413 slash line as projected by Steamer, he’ll be a fantasy asset, especially since he can play all over the diamond.

Jeimer Candelario is projected for 580 plate appearances in 2025, but he hasn’t hit that mark since 2021. Still, in 2025 he’ll be on the second year of a 45M dollar contract, so playing time should only be hampered by injury. He’s not the .271 hitter he was in 2021, but he’s put up back-to-back seasons with 20+ home runs and is hitting in the “Great American Small Park” most of the time. Hitting with regularity in the middle of a Reds lineup that seems just a few healthy players away from clicking seems like a good bet.

Joey Ortiz is now an everyday player in Milwaukee after being traded from the O’s, but he may not have a carrying tool to support initially drafting him. You’re playing the upside game if you think Ortiz will take a step forward in 2024, but there aren’t enough indicators to bring confidence in that prediction. His Barrel% and HardHit% were below average in 2024, but his zone contact rate was above average. Typically that translates to more balls in play that bump up a player’s batting average, but Ortiz hit only .239. He’ll need to show offensive improvement before moving up in the rankings.

Max Muncy is ranked for 2025 exactly where he was ranked for 2024, 27th. Some readers thought that was a mistake and that he should have been higher, but due to injury and 73 games played in 2024, we’ll never know. He ended up finishing 34th behind Jeimer Candelario (31st), Jose Miranda (32nd), and Christopher Morel (33rd). Muncy’s low .213 projected batting average for 2025 scares me, especially when it is coupled with his 25% career K% and one more year of age in 2025. Yet, if you play in an OBP league, Muncy walks a career 15% of the time and has really good contact quality metrics. He may just get back up to the 20 homerun mark that he went beyond in the five seasons prior (ignoring 2020) to this past season.

When analyzing players last season’s rankings missed on, I noticed Jose Miranda’s career-low 15.4% K% and career-high 90% Z-Contact% and the balance he found between average and power in 2024. He did not get enough playing time to accumulate his way to fantasy relevance, but Steamer thinks he could play in more games in 2025 and slash .268/.320/.428. He hit 15 home runs in 2022 when he recorded a career-best 483 plate appearances and he’s going into his age 27 season. There’s room for his counting stats to grow along with his Barrel%, HardHit%, and Z-Contact%. He improved upon each of those metrics between the 23′ and 24′ seasons. If he can begin filling the role of an everyday defensive player instead of a utility man, he has the potential to break out.

Ke’Bryan Hayes dealt with an injury in 2024 and was limited to only 396 plate appearances. He had a few career lows; four home runs, a .233 batting average, four stolen bases, and .290 slugging percentage. Hayes was not rosterable in 2024. If there’s any light in the darkness of his 2024 season, it’s that he improved his zone contact rate to a well above league average of 93.9%. But still, it came with a sad 2.4% barrel rate. He still hit the ball hard, but it didn’t help much as he put the ball on the ground over 50% of the time with the league average being 42.2%. His projected .257/.314/.391 slash line with 12 home runs for 2025 may not be worth drafting. There have been too many seasons now where Hayes has not produced positive value.

Matt Vierling has improved his game in multiple ways over the past three seasons. First, he’s increased his zone contact rate in each season of his career, finishing 2024 with an above-average 90.2%. His Barrel% increased over 2023’s mark, from 4.6% to 7.5%. His wOBA followed a similar trajectory going from .285 in 2022 to .315 in 2023 to .317 in 2024. All of these rate stats combine with more playing time to make Vierling worth rostering. If he takes another step forward, he may be more than a fantasy bench spot. Nothing is keeping him from being in the Tigers lineup, his L/R splits aren’t putting him in platoon jeopardy and his ability to play nearly anywhere defensively adds security. But, he needs to take a step forward from a projected .252/.316/.395 slash line and sadly, Steamer doesn’t think he’ll repeat the 16 home runs he hit in 2024. Can he give another season of steady growth? If you believe so you may want to pick him up sooner rather than later in this year’s drafts.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa may be the everyday shortstop (with 3B eligibility) for the Pirates, but besides the 16 stolen bases and .263 batting average he’s projected for, there’s not much reason to draft him as an everyday fantasy option. He’s worth rostering because those projections can be hard to find in the late rounds of drafts, but he won’t be the reason you win your league.

Justin Turner is a 40-year-old without a job as of this writing, yet he hit 11 home runs and got on base more than the average major leaguer in 2024. If he does play in 2025, he has enough of a history as a veteran player to believe he could hit the 13 home runs he’s projected for. We’ll have to wait and see. It wouldn’t be wise to draft Turner with the expectation he’ll be in your lineup regularly, but it isn’t foolish to draft an easy 10+ home runs.

Brooks Lee, the 23-year-old Twins prospect who earned a little more than a cup of coffee at the end of the season, did not do enough to create fantasy baseball murmurs. His 185 plate appearances resulted in only three home runs and a .221/.265/.320 slash line, but he did not strike out more than 15% of the time and made great in-zone contact. He’s a switch hitter who may be given the chance to play every day in 2024.

Christopher Morel’s move from Chicago to Tampa Bay did not help his game in 2024. Yes, he hit 21 home runs but batted below .200 at .196. His quality of contact (Barrel%, HardHit%) dived in 2024 and he’s likely to lose playing time with the Rays. Even still, OOPSY has him higher than Steamer in every category stat, so maybe there’s some hope yet for the young slugger.

Matt Shaw now joins the ranks as a possibility for the third base position out of Spring Training. I’ve mostly brought him into the ranks because RosterResource has him lined up as the Cubs’ third baseman in 2025, now that Paredes is in Houston. Shaw has real pedigree and his section of the most recent Cubs prospect assessment makes him a very intriguing player going into 2025. It’s very possible he could soar up these ranks in the Spring.

Still with the Mariners is Dylan Moore and RosterResource has him lined up as their everyday third baseman. Moore is worth a look late in drafts when your team looks light on power. He’s projected for 14 home runs by Steamer, but with a career K% just shy of 30%, you should only consider him for a bench role. However, Dylan Moore steals bases now. Or, at least he did in 2024. His career-high 32 bags may have been a product of bigger bases and fewer pick-off throws, but that’s baseball now. Steamer thinks he’ll do it again, projecting 30 stolen bases in 2025. Moore plays all over the field defensively, so it’s unlikely he stays at third, but that added positional flexibility makes him more valuable as a fantasy bench player.

Like Lee, Jace Jung earned a look at the big leagues and played in 34 games last season. He struck out 31% of the time and did not hit a single home run. Still, he has showcased power in the minor leagues and it will be a matter of whether or not he can translate an upper-cut swing-and-miss approach to the big leagues and still come out with double-digit home runs.

José Caballero stole 44 bases in 2024! Maybe he deserves to move up the rankings. He also hit nine home runs, so he wasn’t simply a fantasy bunny rabbit. There’s nothing in his profile to suggest a step forward in 2025. Stolen bases are necessary, but Caballero may be a one-category player to pick up from the waiver wire when you need stolen bases.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on what happens with Vlad Jr. in Toronto as Ernie Clement could be the everyday third baseman if Guerro stays put at first base. In 2024, he was allowed to play more often (452 PA) on a Blue Jays team not competing for a playoff spot. He had a mini break-out season as he hit a career-high 12 home runs and maintained both an above-average batting average and zone contact rate. Add to that his 12 stolen bases and suddenly Clement may raise your eyebrows. RosterResource thinks he’s the Blue Jays’ best option at third and while Steamer doesn’t think he’ll hit more than 10 home runs in 2024, it does project his slash line to repeat and possibly improve in average.

Josh Smith showcased a change in approach in 2024 that led to what looks like a breakout season. Yet, the underlying metrics don’t support the growth he displayed in each of his roto-category stats. Steamer is projecting negative regression and a .244 batting average with 12 home runs and eight stolen bases. That’s not bad, but it’s not an everyday fantasy type of work.

Otto Lopez was awesome in the second half of the season, but it was matched with a .344 BABIP. Even still, BABIP may get a player on base, but it doesn’t help them successfully steal the next base. Lopez did that with his speed in 2024, recording 20 SBs. Steamer actually projects a step forward in his slash line from .270/.313/.377 in 2024 to a projected .276/.328/.389 in 2025.

Noelvi Marte probably doesn’t belong in this bucket based on pure talent, but here he is after recording 66 games played upon his return from a PED suspension. He only hit .210 and collected four knocks. Steamer thinks he’s better than that, projecting him for a .243 batting average, nine home runs, and 12 stolen bases in 2025, but that may not be enough to win the Reds everyday third base job.

José Tena could be the Nationals’ everyday third baseman, but he also may be in a platoon with Andrés Chaparro and Trey Lipscomb.

Josh Rojas is now with the Chicago White Sox and could have a full season at third base. I wrote about Rojas in early May 2024 when it appeared as if he was having a late-career breakout with the Mariners. Through April, Rojas hit .318, but in the months that followed, his batting average tanked (May: .244 -> June: .210 -> July: .200 -> August: .180) I won’t get fooled again! Going into his age 31 season playing for one of the worst teams in baseball means Rojas may give your fantasy team a few base hits and a stolen base while your superstar is nursing a tight hamstring.