Jake Mailhot’s 2025 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: First Base

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu 1B Rankings – Tier 1–3
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
1 Shohei Ohtani Util $55-$65 1297.30 8.58 1.91 $66-$77
2 Freddie Freeman 1B $36-$44 1045.80 6.86 1.56 $36-$44
3 Bryce Harper 1B $36-$44 932.10 6.68 1.54 $36-$44
4 Matt Olson 1B $28-$35 971.00 6.11 1.43 $28-$35

Not much more to say about these four guys beyond the obvious. If you want premium production from 1B, you’re going to have to pay up.

Ottoneu 1B Rankings – Tier 4 & 5
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
5 Pete Alonso 1B $21-$27 882.40 5.63 1.32 $21-$27
6 Christian Walker 1B $21-$27 804.70 5.53 1.32 $15-$20
7 Triston Casas 1B $21-$27 647.70 5.52 1.35 $15-$20
8 Marcell Ozuna Util $15-$20 951.20 6.25 1.50 $10-$14
9 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B $15-$20 660.30 5.33 1.25 $15-$20
10 Josh Naylor 1B $15-$20 748.90 5.32 1.28 $10-$14

Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.

Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.

Ottoneu 1B Rankings – Tier 6 & 7
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
11 Yandy Díaz 1B $10-$14 824.60 5.73 1.31 $10-$14
12 Paul Goldschmidt 1B $10-$14 799.80 5.26 1.22 $6-$9
13 Nathaniel Lowe 1B $10-$14 761.00 5.14 1.21 $6-$9
14 Kyle Manzardo 1B $6-$9 398.00 5.01 1.17 $6-$9
15 Joc Pederson Util $6-$9 616.60 5.00 1.41 $6-$9
16 Masataka Yoshida Util $6-$9 611.50 5.00 1.22 $3-$5
17 Ryan Mountcastle 1B $6-$9 576.20 4.67 1.15 $6-$9
18 Michael Busch 1B $6-$9 651.90 4.63 1.17 $1-$2

I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.

Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.

Ottoneu 1B Rankings – Tier 8 & 9
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
19 Giancarlo Stanton Util $3-$5 543.80 4.81 1.18 $3-$5
20 Andrew McCutchen Util $3-$5 556.50 4.80 1.12 $0-$1
21 Rhys Hoskins 1B $3-$5 622.40 4.62 1.14 $3-$5
22 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B $3-$5 400.40 4.60 1.19 $6-$9
23 Nolan Schanuel 1B $3-$5 617.40 4.57 1.11 $3-$5
24 Spencer Torkelson 1B $3-$5 510.60 4.47 1.07 $3-$5
25 J.D. Martinez Util $1-$2 588.90 5.00 1.21 $0-$1
26 Justin Turner 1B $1-$2 647.90 4.77 1.17 $0
27 Carlos Santana 1B $1-$2 668.20 4.63 1.13 $0-$1
28 Josh Bell 1B $1-$2 666.20 4.61 1.12 $0-$1
29 Andrew Vaughn 1B $1-$2 661.80 4.48 1.08 $0-$1
30 Juan Yepez 1B $1-$2 239.50 4.48 1.15 $0-$1

I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.

Ottoneu 1B Rankings – Tier 10 & 11
Rank Player Position Tier Projected Pts Projected Pts/G Projected Pts/PA Chad’s Tier
31 Tyler Black 1B $0-$1 144.20 4.26 1.02 $0-$1
32 Eloy Jiménez Util $0-$1 389.10 4.01 1.05 $0-$1
33 Endy Rodriguez Util $0-$1 243.60 3.67 0.95 $0-$1
34 Bryce Eldridge 1B $0-$1 N/A N/A N/A $3-$5
35 Nick Kurtz Util $0-$1 N/A N/A N/A $1-$2
36 Xavier Isaac 1B $0-$1 N/A N/A N/A $1-$2
37 Wilmer Flores 1B $0 448.80 4.32 1.16 $0
38 Joey Meneses 1B $0 482.70 4.20 0.99 $0
39 Anthony Rizzo 1B $0 419.80 4.16 1.00 $0
40 Ty France 1B $0 547.50 4.05 1.01 $0
41 Garrett Cooper 1B $0 360.00 3.96 1.05 $0
42 Daniel Vogelbach Util $0 312.90 3.75 1.15 $0
43 Dominic Smith 1B $0 430.10 3.62 0.97 $0
44 Matt Mervis 1B $0 167.10 3.60 0.91 $0
45 Rowdy Tellez 1B $0 420.80 3.55 1.04 $0
46 Jon Singleton 1B $0 340.30 3.44 1.02 $0
47 Nick Pratto 1B $0 253.50 3.21 0.90 $0
48 Yuli Gurriel 1B $0 291.40 3.19 0.91 $0
49 Luken Baker 1B $0 79.80 2.92 0.91 $0





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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