Starting Pitcher 2025 Fantasy Rankings

I had some nerves ranking Tarik Skubal 11th last year because while I believed in the talent, it was still a lofty ranking based heavily on an 80-inning sample. Turns out he was underrated! The 28-year-old lefty put up nearly the same exact skills for 192 innings, netting the AL Cy Young in the process. Nothing within this year and a half sample suggests he is anything but an unquestioned ace. He added velocity, continued to walk virtually nobody, missed a ton of bats, and the other Cy Young winner – Chris Sale – was the only one to best him in K% (32% to 30%) and K-BB% (27% to 26%).

Isn’t it nice when things just work out? Paul Skenes had a brilliant rookie year that showed exactly why he was the #1 overall pick in 2023. The parallels with Stephen Strasburg’s debut are too strong to ignore but of course we hope Skenes can chart a different route in his sophomore season (Stras threw just 24 IP). His MLB-best 98.8 mph fastball (min. 130 IP) is the only real concern in his profile, but it’s not really actionable because while high velocity arms have been getting hurt left and right, that same velocity is part of why they are so good in the first place. Years ago, I might have been more concerned with the light track record, but even with fewer than 150 innings under his belt, I’m more than willing to take Skenes with a late 1st-/early 2nd-round pick.

Ho-hum, just another brilliant season for Zack Wheeler. He returned to the 200-inning club, hitting the number exactly thanks in part to going no fewer than 6 IP in any of his 11 starts over the final two months. He also led an NL-best 6.3 H/9 rate to a career-best (and NL-best) 0.96 WHIP. While there may be a tinge of age-related concern for the 35-year-old, it’s certainly not enough to take him out of the ace tier and then in comparison to some of the risk factors of others guy in this tier, he just winds up being one of the best arms you can get in the early rounds.

Garrett Crochet is another aggressive ranking based on a small sample of work. He looked every bit like an ace in his 146-inning breakout and as I move further away from the notion of “safe” pitchers, I find myself gravitating toward these massive upside arms who hold real ace potential. So much of our notions of safety with pitching comes in firm projections for their innings based on history, but we all know that every pitcher holds substantial injury risk. Yes, some hold more risk than others, but everyone’s baseline is remarkably high just by the very nature of pitching so give me the real game-changing upside found in an arm like Crochet’s.

If he was just overpowering last year and leveraged his excellent velocity and raw stuff to dominate the competition, perhaps I’d be a bit more cautious in my optimism. Seeing him put together a remarkable 6% BB rate was the development that really sold me on him. The light second half usage doesn’t really bother me and now that he’s been traded to Boston (yes, the original write up was definitely done before the trade, so I’ll have further assessment of him in Boston later), we don’t have to overly panic about wins. Truth be told, the original copy pointed out that I wasn’t worried about the wins even with the White Sox. His rank did not change for me after the trade.

We have another aggressive ranking here with Jacob deGrom, especially for a 37-year-old with all of 265 innings in the last five seasons combined. So why the ranking then? Because while they have been very limited samples, he still looks like premium Jacob deGrom. He’s now in a TJ honeymoon period, too, so while the injury risk isn’t gone or anything, this is the healthiest he’s been in years and I’m willing to take a shot on such an amazing arm. He is still so good that even 100-120 IP is enough to be worth this lofty ranking.

While I was higher on George Kirby than Logan Gilbert last year, I made it a point to say that it was more about Kirby’s greatness than anything Gilbert lacked so when Gilbert outclassed his teammate last year, I wasn’t exactly shocked. Instead of flipping their rankings, I simply elevated Gilbert to Kirby’s level and remain fully invested in both as foundational pieces to a fantasy rotation. Gilbert was able to find the extra strikeouts I projected for Kirby as his slider became one of the best in baseball (2nd to only Sonny Gray’s in Stuff+ at 146). If he can establish the curveball as a legit third pitch and/or mix in some of Kirby’s command without losing anything off the amazing slider, he is a Cy Young contender. Kirby isn’t just a command guy as his 106 Stuff+ is ranked 17th. The issue is that he lacks a true strikeout pitch to push his rate like Gilbert, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still find it and hell, it might even be the slider just like his rotation mate. I’m open to letting either headline my rotation.

Despite his continued downward trend in strikeout rate (-3 pts to 23%), Corbin Burnes still managed to put up an excellent season that landing him 9th among starters on the Auction Calculator. He countered the K% dip by also shaving 2 pts off his walk rate to just 6%, resulting in a 2.92 ERA/1.10 WHIP combo along with a career-high 15 Wins. The fact that his Swinging Strike rate (SwStr) actually pushed up a bit (+1 to 13%) offers some hope that his K% can push back up toward the 2023 mark, but barring a substantial jump in swinging strikes, it’s hard to see him returning to the 33% level we saw from 2019-2022 (16% SwStr). I’ll have more when he signs this winter. Jan 2nd Update: Signed with ARI in a huge shocker! I love this move for the Diamondbacks and while it’s a perfectly fine landing spot for Burnes, it doesn’t change my outlook much on him. Even with the extended wall in left field of Camden Yards (which is being moved back in this offseason), Baltimore’s park still had a worse HR park factor (93) than Arizona’s Chase Field (86) so perhaps his new landing spot will push his HR9 back below 1.0 for the first time in four seasons.

What a return to prominence for Chris Sale! His injury-addled 30s made it seem like his best days were behind him. He had just 298 IP in 3+ seasons since 2019 so there were no guarantees that he’d get back to 170+ innings in a season, let alone those innings being good enough to net his first Cy Young Award. Sale regained his groundball lean (+8 pts to 45% GB rate) and when paired with a beautiful 6% HR/FB rate, netted him the best HR/9 in baseball at just 0.46, a tick better than the 0.48 of Logan Webb. His core skills have remained great throughout his career so even if you don’t fully buy the HR suppression and have some concerns about his age, there are no real questions about his pure talent.

I originally had Blake Snell in the Aces tier before he signed with the Dodgers (slotted at 9) but it just made too much sense to put him with his new teammates and it’s not like dropping him 2 spots fundamentally alters how I feel about him. His extremely late signing with San Francisco (March 19th) essentially wrecked his first half as a pair of injuries limited him to just 6 starts through June… and 6 bad starts at that (9.51 ERA). He returned from the 2nd IL stint with back-to-back 1-hit outings which laid the foundation for an amazing second half during which he posted a 1.23 ERA/0.79 WHIP in 80.3 IP (including a no-hitter at CIN on Aug. 2nd). The up-and-down nature of even his best seasons scares off some at the draft table, but I just don’t know why I shouldn’t be interested in the guy who is 1st in K% and 2nd in ERA over the last 3 seasons (min. 400 IP) and now joining arguably the best org in baseball. I’d be remiss not to mention that his 11% BB rate slots him 21st in WHIP during that time, but it’s not like his 1.16 mark is damaging your bottom line.

The highly anticipated MLB debut of Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the mid-March South Korea series v. San Diego truly couldn’t have gone worse (1 IP/5 ER) and if you stopped watching the season there, you’d think he was a colossal bust for the Dodgers, but of course the season continued on and while a strained rotator cuff did eat up nearly 3 months of time, he was undoubtedly excellent in his remaining 17 starts, posting a 2.53 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 89 IP, tacking on another 18.7 IP in the playoffs (including another tough showing v. SD that he was able to avenge with 5 scoreless innings in the Game 5 clincher). All the elements are there for a monster second season with the biggest question being volume and we know LAD won’t just turn him (or any of their pitchers) loose for 200+ IP, but with health he should be able to reach something in the 140-160 IP range.

Tyler Glasnow did set another career-high in innings last year, but it was still just 134 innings, up 14 from his previous high set in 2023. Now 31 years old, it seems unlikely that he will all of a sudden become a bastion of health and start piling up 30-start seasons, but as the game moves further away from workhorse starters, it is a lot easier to take on these elite 20-start types and backfill the missed innings in-season if they are once again felled by injury. I always say to draft the player types who work best with your management style and if these high-risk/high-reward types like Glasnow are too much of a headache for you, then you should feel comfortable passing on them.

I know Shohei Ohtani didn’t throw a single pitch in 2024 and has only once eclipsed 135 innings, but frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn. He doesn’t really need more than 120-130 innings to make a substantial impact on the mound so while I fully expect the Dodgers to limit him as he returns from TJ, I’m willing to take the plunge. Obviously, his SP ranking doesn’t really matter that much in leagues where you get both versions of him because he shouldn’t last beyond the 2nd or 3rd overall pick (he’s my #1), but there are still formats where he is split into hitter and pitcher versions and it’s those leagues where I’m still willing to invest a pretty high pick for the latter version.

Gerrit Cole didn’t debut until June 19th because of elbow inflammation suffered in early March and then took another 2 months to regain his footing, mixing good and bad starts over his first seven outings en route to 5.40 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 35 IP. A 10-day breather for “general soreness” after that seventh start may have been just what he needed as he closed strong with a 2.25 ERA/0.93 WHIP in his last 10 starts and capped off his season with a solid playoff run. As it stands now, I’m sticking with Cole as a top tier option, essentially giving him an injury pass for 2024. I might be more concerned if we didn’t see periods of premium Cole throughout his shortened season, but the strong finish and discounted price point are enough for me to invest in a bounce back campaign.

Michael King’s amazing 2.95 ERA in his first full season as a starter is even more impressive when you remember that he fronted the league a month. Control issues in April (13% BB) led to a 5.00 ERA in 7 starts. He opened May with 13 shutout innings, kicking off a 5-month run as one of the best pitchers in the league posting a 2.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in 137.7 innings. Looping in the end of his 2023 season, King has 38 starts of premium work as only Skubal, Sale, and Wheeler have a better ERA than King’s 2.76 mark in that time. He misses a ton of bats, shown he can take 30 turns in a season, and plays for a strong team that should put him in line for the wins needed to put up an elite fantasy season, add it all up and King might go from RP-to-ace in just two seasons.

I was big on Cole Ragans last year, slotting him 21st in my SP rankings and he did nothing to make me regret that decision with a true breakout season. He continued to improve his BB rate, but at 9% there is still room for improvement and if he is able to do that while sustaining his excellent 29% K rate then a sub-3.00 ERA is on the table.

Signing with the New York Yankees didn’t change my ranking for Max Fried as I had mentally slotted him somewhere in the AL East already (BOS was my choice with Crochet going to NYY, but I did say the teams were interchangeable for those two on this podcast). Does an 8-year guarantee from New York assuage concerns over the forearm scare from the summer? I can’t say for sure and while he was a bit bumpy upon return from that IL stint (11 BB, 7.90 ERA in 3 gms), he smoothed out the control issues and looked like himself over the final 8 starts: 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 52.7 IP. I generally like to allow a transition season for players signing massive deals and I will almost certainly employ that strategy with Fried.

Shane McClanahan was on the fast track to becoming one of the best pitchers in the game before being felled by a second Tommy John surgery in August of 2023. That does give the extended rehab period which puts him on track for Spring Training, though obviously the Rays won’t just turn him loose with innings, either. As with Glasnow, I go into the McClanahan situation with my eyes wide open and an expectation of a heavily managed workload. Ideally, the Rays will do so with extended rests between outings as opposed to shortened starts all year (though I do expect 4-5 IP outings early on).

OK, Roki Sasaki is probably more than one step away because he doesn’t even have a major league team yet. The 23-year-old was posted for MLB teams at the outset of the Winter Meetings meaning he has 45 days to negotiate and figure out where he’s going to play. He has been so amazing during his four seasons in the NPB that I’m willing to slot him this high before he even signs with a team. He had a 2.02 ERA/0.88 WHIP combo in 415 IP with Chiba Lotte, establishing himself as the league’s best pitcher. A velo dip, an injury, and some skills degradation resulted in his worst season yet (2.35 ERA/1.04 WHIP — hilarious that those are the marks of his “worst” season). However, like Ohtani before him, Sasaki is subject to International FA rules which sharply limits the amount of money he can make with this move and as such, I don’t suspect the “down” season will hurt him during these negotiations. This is not a purely money-driven move for Sasaki, but more about coming to the best league in the world and seeing where he stacks up. I’ll have more when he signs.

I hope the Orioles bring back Corbin Burnes to pair with Grayson Rodriguez atop their rotation, but I’m not holding my breath. It’s not that I don’t think Rodriguez can be the ace, but if they want to be considered a frontline contender, they need more. That said, I love Rodriguez and honestly more of his 2024 with a bit of refinement may well be enough to headline. It could be as simple as avoid the Dud outings (5+ ER). A trio of them really pushed his ratios up, especially in a 20-start sample, and while he did allow 20 runs in 14.3 IP over those starts, he also had a 22:4 K/BB ratio and went 5 IP on two of them. I’m always in on a young arm with an elite changeup as that is often the last thing to click with budding prospects.

Cleveland’s surprising run to the AL Central crown didn’t come via their normal dominance in starting pitching, though Tanner Bibee definitely held up his end of the bargain. After a few rocky starts early on that saddled him with a 4.91 ERA through 8 starts, he closed with a 3.04 ERA in his final 23 starts thanks to a 21% K-BB and 1.04 WHIP. Surprisingly he only went 10-7 during that run despite the amazing bullpen that picked up the slack for the lack of strong pitching behind Bibee. His fastball and curveball were both a bit better than 2023 and helped cover a bit of regression in his slider as he delivered a splendid follow-up to last year’s rookie breakout. I’ll take more of the same in 2025.

Shota Imanaga had a fantastic MLB debut, looking like one of baseball’s best through his first 13 starts (1.89 ERA/0.99 WHIP/22% K-BB in 76 IP). We knew the splitter was good, but his fastball was the key to that brilliant run. Batters eventually figured it out and the home run worry that was a concern from his NPB days came to fruition as he’d post just 4 HR-free games from June 21st on, a span of 16 starts. His HR rate more than doubled, going from 0.8 in those first 13 starts to 1.9 (!!) in the final 16. An excellent 1.05 WHIP in that second stretch helped him to a 3.70 ERA despite that obscene HR rate. The WHIP is the draw here as I can’t see better than a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA without substantial improvement in his HR rate. He’s one step away, but it’s a big step.

If you want to see how Imanaga’s fate might play out, look no further than Joe Ryan’s profile. He has a similarly fantastic K-BB rate and WHIP while his ERA rests on the fate of his HR rate. You will not be shocked to learn that Ryan’s best ERA came when his HR rate was lowest (3.55 ERA w/a 1.2 HR9 in 2022). It spiked to a career-worst 1.8 in 2023 and sent his ERA up to an ugly 4.51, though still a solid 1.16 WHIP. A shoulder injury ended his season in early-August which makes his 31st SP ranking that much more impressive.

Is it lazy to say that Ryan and Bailey Ober are just the Spiderman pointing meme? They obviously get there a bit differently, but they arrive at the same spot with a great K-BB rate and WHIP and home runs largely driving their ERAs. Over the last 4 seasons, JR: 3.92 ERA/1.07 WHIP/22% K-BB in 470 IP | BO: 3.76 ERA/1.07 WHIP/20% K-BB in 471 IP.

Dylan Cease was back and better than ever as good as the best version we’ve seen thus far. I was tempted to keep the “better than ever” in there because of the career-best BB rate (9%) and we all desperately want that as low as possible for Cease, but it wasn’t his best K rate (29% in 2024 compared to his 32% career-high in 2021) and it wasn’t close to his best ERA as he managed an insane 2.20 mark in 2022 and “just” a 3.47 this past season. The control issues drive Cease’s ERA and WHIP volatility which generally leads me to treating him as a “buy the dip” kind of guy since I usually trust his skills to bring his ERA back toward his consistent mid-3.00s ERA indicators. I’m going against that inclination because while I don’t think he has necessarily outgrown that ERA volatility, I was thisclose to putting him in the Modern Workhorses tier (which would’ve been a lower rank by number, but truthfully I don’t see much difference in talent between this tier and that one) as his 716 IP since 2021 are 7th most and his 891 strikeouts are far and away the highest (Burnes, 858 in 2nd).

Logan Webb’s 1.23 WHIP was a 4-year high, but it didn’t stop him from posting another quality workhorse campaign. His back-to-back 200+ IP seasons are a rarity in today’s game, and that volume – even with higher rates than 2021-23 (3.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) – was still plenty valuable. His strikeout rate is a negative among top tier pitchers, but the volume does help mitigate that downside as his 172 strikeouts were ranked 27th in the league. He had a distinct enough home/road split that skipping some starts away from San Francisco over the second half made sense, allowing managers to possibly curate rates more in line with his 2021-23 seasons. Like so many players, Webb has always been better at home, but the 1.47 WHIP on the road was definitely unexpected. All that said, I’m not drafting him as a home-only play, especially at this price, but if he falls into the same pattern again, I will accelerate my road sits for Webb much sooner than I did in ’24.

An early season elbow injury cost Framber Valdez his chance at a third straight 30+ start season. He made the most of his 28 starts, though, dropping his ERA below 3.00 for the second time in three seasons (2.91) while also improving his WHIP for the third straight season (career-best 1.11). Three duds in his first eight starts off the IL pushed his ERA up to 3.99 before unleashing a run of 2.24 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 19% K-BB in his final 17 starts (109 IP). I still see Webb and Valdez very similarly, as bankable rocks who are among the stronger bets to give you 30 starts of quality work with the upside of a sub-3.00 ERA and great WHIP. Valdez was better last year, but I still can’t split them up. Over the last four seasons they are the embodiment of the Spiderman pointing meme: LW – 3.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 17% K-BB in 761 IP | FV – 3.08, 1.15, 16% in 710 IP. Take either with confidence.

Can you be a bankable workhorse with a mid-4.00s ERA in two of the last four seasons? I think so as it describes Aaron Nola who many hail for his consistent output despite the elevated ERAs in 2021 and 2023. He has at least 32 starts in each of the last six seasons where that was possible with 2020 of course being the lone exception. Over that time, he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in an MLB-best 1265 IP, well above teammate Zack Wheeler’s 1207 in 2nd place. He was still a positive value pitchers in ’21 and ’23 because of his strong WHIP and strikeout totals. We’ve seen the variance even at his best so as he gets older (32 this year), that risk heightens a bit, but not enough to deter me from drafting him.

Luis Castillo’s early career home run issues have returned with a 1.3 HR9 over the last two seasons as he has become a flyball pitcher. His 19% K-BB rate still sits 11th (min. 300 IP) so the extra homers haven’t really hurt him. His velo dipped for a second straight season and he might just be a mid-3.00s ERA guy with a good WHIP and worthy bet for 30+ starts. He is kind of an AL version of Nola in that respect.

I see similarities between Pablo López and Castillo: strong K-BB, consistent track record of success, strong bet for 30+ starts, and a blossoming HR issue that gives him a wide range of expected ERAs. He suffered through 7 Duds, tied for 3rd-most in the league, accounting for 51% of season’s earned runs. This isn’t new, though, as his 20 Duds since 2022 are behind only Patrick Corbin (26) and Miles Mikolas (24) so slot him in that Nola/Castillo bucket. There is ERA upside if he can iron out the inconsistency, but I certainly wouldn’t bank on it and instead plan for a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA, good WHIP, and tons of Ks.

Zach Eflin is trying to evolve into a late-career workhorse. He couldn’t completely backup his breakout 2023, but he still had a solid 3.59 ERA/1.15 WHIP combo, including a sparkling 2.60 ERA with Baltimore after the trade. I know I’m hammering on everyone’s HR issues in this tier, but it is the throughline keeping them from reaching their ERA potential and Eflin fits right in. In fact, he hasn’t posted a sub-1.0 mark in any of his 9 seasons and with Baltimore moving the LF fence back in, season 10 probably won’t be the lucky one. This control artist profile does build a stable floor and the consistent volume allows their WHIP to make a bigger impact. Eflin is the bargain bin option from this tier so his extra risk compared to the others is mitigated by the lower price point.

Thanks to the development of his splitter, Bryce Miller made massive strides against lefties. He shaved his OPS down 254 points to .663 while also getting a bit better against righties (-37 pts to .512). While I believe in his gains, I don’t fully believe in the results as I just can’t ignore how much his .237 BABIP helped facilitate the 2.94 ERA. His flyball lean does make him more conducive to better than average BABIPs, but betting on a repeat of the 4th-lowest BABIP seems foolish. Put him down for a mid-3.00s ERA and low-1.10s WHIP… and if things break right, his first 200-inning season.

On a positive note, Freddy Peralta put together a second straight full season with a career-high 32 starts. There weren’t too many more positives after that. OK, he did remain a strikeout force (28%), but his walk (9%) and hit (7.4) rates hit 3-year highs while 2023’s home run problem stuck around (1.4) resulting in a modest 50th SP ranking. He is kind of this tier’s Dylan Cease, although the market isn’t really offering much of a dip to buy… and understandably so. He still has a great fastball and that strikeout foundation so if he can get his HR rate back in check, that sub-3.00 ERA from 2021 is still well within his range of outcomes. Pay for a mid-3.00s ERA and high-1.10s WHIP with a boatload of strikeouts.

Carlos Rodón was mostly back on track last year, but the pesky home run issues from 2023 remained as his 1.6 HR9 was 4th-worst among qualified starters. His 122 Stuff+ was baseball’s best and his 97 Location+ was tied for baseball’s worst with Framber Valdez, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea. Everything comes down to health with Rodón and if he’s healthy, there is a path to improving that Location+ and shaving down his homer rate. His ADP of SP40 means he doesn’t have to be better than last year to payoff so if you’re comfortable buying a strikeout stud with Wins upside and ratio risk, bid confidently.

Zac Gallen was a fade for me last year as a classic playoff hangover case and while it’s hard to say his hamstring injury and modest output after he returned were definitely because of his 2023 workload, the results do check out. He had some walk issues after the hammy, but he closed strong with a 3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 24% K-BB in his last seven starts. Missing the playoffs might have been a blessing in disguise for Gallen to get him a full offseason. There hasn’t been an overreaction to his tough season as he’s still a Top 40 starter (SP38) in winter drafts, a price point I’m willing to pay for him.

An opening day hamstring injury and late season elbow tendinitis limited Justin Steele to just 135 innings last season, giving him at least 1 IL stint in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter. While he did take 30 turns in 2023, a 180-inning season has remained elusive for the 29-year-old lefty. The skills are there so his upside comes in volume potential. His 3.10 ERA is 9th among qualified starters over the last three seasons and while his 1.20 WHIP does sit 46th, it’s pushed up a good bit by the 1.35 from 2022 and he has made significant improvements each of the last two seasons, dropping to 1.17 in 2023 and just 1.10 last season. I wouldn’t go in expecting a full season of low-3.00s ERA and low-1.10s WHIP, but instead project around a 3.30s ERA/upper-1.10s WHIP knowing there is real upside to put together a special season.

It was a tale of two halves for Sonny Gray with an excellent first half that fell apart in the second and ended with him on the IL for the final week. That sort of trajectory for a 35-year-old with injury issues throughout his career looks scary, but was it just home run volatility that fueled the disparate halves? Three multi-HR duds in the second half accounted for 47% of the earned runs over his final 67 innings, including 4 HRs in Atlanta out of the All-Star break. His K-BB was actually a tick better in the second half at 25% so virtually all of the regression came from the longball (1H: 0.7 HR9 | 2H: 1.8). St. Louis appears to be entering a change phase with their big veterans on the trade block, including Gray so if he gets moved we can re-assess how his new home will impact him. It is worth noting that he had a massive home/road ERA split last year (2.79/5.20) as six of his seven Duds came outside of St. Louis, including all three of those multi-homer crushers in the second half, but I don’t put a ton of stock into that when judging Gray going forward. Pay for 150 strong innings and take anything north as a bonus.

Jack Flaherty got his groove back in Detroit, looking like a frontliner for the first time since his 2019 breakout season. Injuries play a major role in his struggles from 2021-23 (we’ll throw out 2020 because who cares about that?!), averaging just 86 IP/season with a high of 144 that came with an awful 4.99 ERA/1.58 WHIP combo. Improved command across his 3-pitch arsenal led to a complete overhaul in results, yielding a career-best 24% K-BB in 162 innings. He definitely wasn’t the same guy after the trade to the Dodgers, dropping that K-BB from 28% to 18% as everything was just a bit worse across the board. He was still competent in LA (3.58/1.28) and better than the guy we’d seen in 2021-23, but it’s fair to question how bankable this growth is for 2025 and beyond. Of course, he still has to sign somewhere, and that will no doubt give us more clarity on where to place expectations. Look for an update once he lands.

Based on my breakdown of him last year, this should be my mea culpa on Hunter Greene as he more than halved his HR rate en route to a wonderful 2.75 ERA/1.02 WHIP in a career-high 150 innings. So then what gives on this ranking? I’m sorry, I just don’t buy it. I’m struggling to see what tangible changes he made to his profile that facilitated his HR improvements. At his core, he Is the same guy from 2023 as evidenced by just 7-point swing in SIERA (and 2024’s was the higher one, hilariously enough!). If you’ve followed my work for any amount of time, you know I’m reluctant to just declare someone lucky or unlucky and move on, but the three biggest luck-driven factors that we look at for pitchers went massively in Greene’s favor last year. He paired that HR improvement with a career-best .237 BABIP and 81% LOB rate. I wouldn’t be foolish enough to suggest he had nothing to do with those improvements, especially someone with stuff as good as his, but without any fundamental changes in his profile, it’s really hard to bet on a repeat. He is still just 25 years old so he’s very much still in the growth phase but I’m scared of anyone with a HR issue pitching in Cincinnati and I’m just not willing to pay the premium on Greene.

I’d rather go for Hunter Brown over Greene even at essentially the same price (7-pick split in ADP). I was big on Brown last year and by the end of the season, I felt pretty good about it, but he was popping up on waiver wires in a bunch of leagues throughout April after a 9.78 ERA in his first six starts. While the 9 ER in just 2/3 of an inning at KC played a massive role, there were two other duds that made him a viable cut in some shallower leagues where you have to consistently burn and churn to keep up. He wasn’t immediately fixed in May, failing to go more than 5 IP in any of his first three starts with 7 BB in 14 IP, but 17 Ks and a more palatable (but still shaky) 4.40 ERA offered some encouragement or the Brown believers like me. His 10th start of the season was his first true gem of the year and spurred a 2.31 ERA over his final 22 starts, good for 2nd to only Paul Skenes’s 1.90 ERA from May 22nd through the end of the year. A deep arsenal, the 15th-best K-BB since 2023 (18%), and residence on one of the smartest teams in the league keeps me fully bought in on Brown as he enters his third full season. I still think there is premium upside here where he pushes 185+ innings and 200+ Ks which would put in him position to notch 15+ Wins.