Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 Shortstop Ranks

We’ve covered the slow foots at catcher and first base while seeing how cold the hot corner has gone. Let’s now speed things up and move over to shortstop, which is sneakily shallow. Just not in the way you’re thinking.

Shortstop isn’t shallow in a traditional sense like third base is, where you need to get one the first eight guys to feel comfortable, or how catcher used to be when that number was about two. That’s not the case with shortstop, where there are 12-15ish guys who I could see being comfortable with as your starter. I’m not saying me, personally, just more in a general sense where most would agree, “yes, this is a reasonable option”.

But while the pool is deep enough for everyone to get a good starter and some to get a strong MI, as well; when that cliff hits, it hits hard, and once it does, there’s no getting better. Which hey, not everyone needs to use a shortstop as their MI, so as long as everyone can get a decent starter, it’s all good, right?

Yep! Mostly. As long as you definitely hit on your starter and he definitely doesn’t get hurt. But leaving yourself thin comes with risk and regardless of the reason, any situation requiring a dip into the SS waiver-wire pool is unlikely to be pleasant. Per usual, I speak from personal experience, as my rosters in 2022 involved a lot of Wander Franco, Tim Anderson, and Jeremy Peña. The former two got nailed by injury and while Peña was great, he also hit a long stretch of putrid production, which means ol’ Nicklaus spent most of his year scrambling to fill leaks in his SS/MI slots from a pool that was shallow from the jump.

But it’s important to not just blame my issues on the bad luck from the injury front and move on, vowing this year(!) to only take healthy players. No, I made a mistake in strategy.

By only drafting one “starting” SS (i.e. like the 12-15ish guys we mentioned above) and counting on using a second baseman as my MI, my roster was left extremely vulnerable to a SS injury. Sure, on many teams I had Peña (or Andrés Giménez) that I could move from MI to SS when Franco/Anderson got hurt and then somewhat easily backfill MI from my bench/waiver wire because the pool of 2B-eligible players is so deep. But then how did things go when Peña hit the absolute skids during the summer? Now I was left with my “backup” SS failing as a starter and my MI slot filled by another backup. Dealing with issues like this can be managed in the short run but you’ll be in trouble if you’re getting replacement-level (or below!) production from two position slots for extended periods of time.

The pool looks roughly the same in 2023 but I’ll be approaching the position completely differently, trying to buffer myself as best I can against needing to hit the waiver wire come the regular season. That means I’ll be leaving drafts with two shortstops that I’m very comfortable with as my starter, likely not straying far out of my top 10. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’ll be taking one in my first few picks but given how I feel about third base, I expect there will be some drafts where my first three hitters are (in no particular order) SS, SS, 3B.

Okay, enough jibber jabber, let’s get to some ranks. We’ll start with how everyone performed in 2022. Here were the top 50 shortstops by ranks, along with ADP data from 2022 and 2023:

And here are the same top 50 from above, this time with their 5×5 roto stats, by half and for the full season:

Now for the future. The future? That’s right, old friends, the future. All the way to the year two thousand and twenty-three, followed by all of the tiers you’re totally used to normally:

Tier: Why Are We Still Acting Like He’ll Miss Over a Month?

Fernando Tatis Jr., SD

The biggest winner of the Padres (very) mini-playoff run, might have been Fernando Tatis Jr., who now only has to miss 20 games in 2023 to finish out his suspension. Tatis Jr. will (presumably) return on April 20th, and will be eligible for 142 games. In 2021, he played in just 130 games – Tatis Jr. slashed .282/.364/.611 over 546 PA, with 42 HR, 99 Runs, 97 RBI, and 25 SB, finishing as the #4 overall hitter in fantasy. And yet, even though he could easily put up the same number of PAs (or more) in 2023 as he did in 2021, Tatis Jr. has just a 22 ADP in NFBC drafts over the past ~30 drafts. Why?

If the reasoning is a fear of injury, ok, fine. But Tatis has been remarkably consistent in his per-PA roto rates and I don’t see many reasons to doubt his rates in 2023 will be much different. Especially considering the lineup (now with Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts!) San Diego will be rolling out.

If you’re of the mind that Tatis Jr. will come back on April 20th and play the whole year, then you should be valuing him as a top-five hitter in fantasy. Believe it.

Tier: Yes, I Know About Fernando Tatis’s Suspension

Trea Turner, PHI

Bo Bichette, TOR

I won’t deny being very excited by the possibilities of Trea Turner in the Philadelphia bandbox, with the tiny dimensions perhaps helping to buffer the diminishing top-end exit velocities that he’s posted recently. But that lineup is good, not great, without Bryce Harper, and we still have no clear idea when he’ll be back. We have to split hairs when it comes to first-round talents and Harper’s absence does it for me here.

Tier: Sweet, Delicious Safety

Francisco Lindor, NYM

Francisco Lindor was already one of the safest bets in fantasy but Steve Cohen’s spending spree has taken it to a new level. Lindor is currently slotted to bat third for New York, being preceded by Brandon Nimmo/Carlos Correa, and followed by Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Starling Marte. Yes, it’s good enough that Marte (.292/.347/.468 in 2022) makes total sense batting sixth.

Considering the top-notch surrounding cast, expect Lindor to have R+RBI gravy rain down in 2023, perhaps even more so than it did in 2022 (98 R + 107 RBI). Which, when comparing other projections to my own, seems to be the biggest separating factor in our values. Steamer, I love ya but Lindor finishing with just 83 R + 88 RBI, seems a little bonkers considering the per-PA rates he’s put up previously.

With power, a little speed, a lot of counters, and a draft price barely inside a 40 ADP, I expect to have a lot of Lindor love in my life this season.

Tier: You Promise He’ll Get 550 PA, Right?

Tim Anderson, CHW

With the Windy City finally blowing away the old man stink of TLR, hopefully, the White Sox offense will finally start to deliver on all of that promise we’ve heard so much about. Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez are (currently) healthy, Andrew Benintendi has joined the fold, and maybe this is (finally) the year we get that Andrew Vaughn breakout everyone’s been talking about. Hell, maybe the body snatchers that have taken over Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal will decide to finally peace out. Could be!

Regardless, if Tim Anderson gets much over 550 PA, he’ll likely be worth the price you paid, with contributions in five categories and a batting average that’s elite. And even if he ends up on the low side of HR and RBI, Anderson has been remarkably consistent in batting average and the per-PA rates for SB and Runs.

Putting health aside (which, granted, isn’t easy to do), this gives him a really high floor at that price, with still plenty of room for upside. With a near-100 ADP, Anderson seems to be a great value.

Tier: Oneil Cruz? Fraud

Oneil Cruz, PIT

Well, not an actual fraud; that’s a bit harsh, especially for a 24-year-old baseball player. Besides, the fantasy fraudulence of Oneil Cruz isn’t even his fault – it’s yours. Ok, maybe not yours, specifically, just whoever has helped contribute to a near top-75 ADP on NFBC. I choose you-uuuuu for my boos.

Okay, okay, okay…Everyone settle down. I can barely even hear anything over the chorus of, “But 122 mph max exit velo-ooooooo”. Don’t worry, I know. Cruz hits the ball really, really hard. There were 11 players in 2022 who hit a ball with an exit velocity of 117 mph or greater, and only five of them hit more than one. After Giancarlo the EV GOAT (10), the rest of the list was, Aaron Judge (2), Shohei Ohtani (3), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4), and our boy, Oneil Cruz (4). That’s some hard-hitting company. Bah-duh, bump.

Given the above, let’s make this discussion simpler. Since it’s almost Christmas (and Hanukkah, Boxing Day, Kwanzaa, Yule, and even Zarathost Diso) and I’m in a gift-giving mood, I’ll go ahead and grant you the power, assuming Cruz is a near-lock for 25 HR, with +30 HR potential. I give this to you, ok! So, no more talk about max EVs, deal? And in exchange, I won’t even talk about how Cruz’s 44% Air% (fly balls + line drives) ranked 201st out of batters with at least 350 PA. Or how that was only 0.2% above Yandy Díaz.

But these gifts aren’t done! I’m also going to grant you the speed, and assume that the 6-foot-7 human (that somehow has top-2% speed) is going to give you 15 SB, with 20+ potential. You see how nice I am? I just give this thing to you!

However, given the gifts above, I have one more present to give – the gift of treating me like a dunk-roo if Cruz goes 30+ HR and 20+ SB. If he does, he’ll be lauded as a fantasy star, regardless of what he does in the other categories. This I know. So, now that I’ve tied a few hands behind my back, let’s talk about those other categories because unless you play in a 2×5 roto league, Cruz will still need to contribute in a few other places to keep his total value up and justify a top-75 draft price.

Batting Average

Listen, I’m not one to demand gifts back in return but I feel like you should grant me that we’re looking at a likely batting average sink. Cruz posted a .232 AVG in 247 PA at Triple-A in 2022 and a .233 AVG over 361 PA in the big leagues, with a .223 xBA and a .317 BABIP that backs the effort. Oh, and there was also a 35% K%, and 62% Contact%, with a putrid 22.4 Z-O (zSwing% – oSwing%). Among qualified batters, that was the 4th-lowest.

There’s also the matter of left-handed pitchers. It’s not that Cruz was bad vs LHP, or even totally rotten. It’s that he was a complete and utter liability. Over 111 PA vs LHP, Cruz slashed .158/.225/.307, with a .532 OPS, .235 wOBA, and 48 wRC+. Oh, and he also posted (and I swear this isn’t a typo) a 53% K%. 53%! Really?

Unless the Pirates somehow manage to only face righties in 2022, I’d bet on a .240 AVG being more of a ceiling. And perhaps still an unreachable one.

Runs + RBI

Umm, yeah. This one is pretty easy. Collecting runs and RBI are all about stacking opportunities, and those are going to be driven by where you bat in the order and the quality of the hitters surrounding you.

Here is Pittsburgh’s projected Opening Day lineup:

Oh my goodness, I am so sorry. The above might be moot – let’s check in on Pittsburgh’s possible future:

 

Maybe Bryan Reynolds sticks around all year and ups Cruz’s run-scoring potential. Or, maybe Santa listened to me and the Cardinals will get him (into Baseball Heaven) for something around-ish Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, Matt Libertore, and whatever else they need to throw in. Who knows? It’s the Pirates! But since 2019, only seven Pirates have scored more than 60 Runs in a season – and three of them were Bryan Reynolds.

And regardless of who’ll be batting behind him, Cruz is still going to be preceded by the likes of Rodolfo Castro, Cal Mitchell, and Austin Hedges. You tell me where the RBI chances will come from – cause it ain’t that. In case you were wondering, only seven Pirates have more than 60 RBI in a season since 2019. Three of them are (still) Bryan Reynolds.

It’s not even that I dislike Cruz as a player, either now, or in the future. He’s 24 years old, with only 370 PA in the majors, and has the physical tools of a minor deity. I think we can give him some time before coming to a final judgment. No, this isn’t about the player, only the price.

With an 81 ADP over the most recent drafts (52 min – 101 max), there is no room for error. Unless you’re betting on a batting average and R+RBI that the circumstances don’t support, Cruz will just about have to go 30/20 to be worth the price. And that’s saying nothing of where the upside comes from; again, unless you think his AVG+R+RBI will unexpectedly blow up. Those are three sinks waiting to happen and ones that will be an anchor on his ability to be an overall elite fantasy asset.

With the much safer likes of Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, and Corey Seager being available in the same range, I’m afraid Cruz is gonna be a hard pass for me.

Tier: And The Paul Goldschmidt Annual Award for  “Ain’t No Way *Insert Name* Has a .265 AVG”, Goes To!

Xander Bogaerts, SD

Xander Bogaerts, c’mon on down! No, not to Boston – wa-aaay over back over here, in San Diego. It looks like early projections are calling for you to post an ~.265 AVG in 2023, even though you’ve only run something so low was in your 2014 rookie campaign (.240 AVG). The second-lowest was a .273 AVG in 2017; since then Bogaerts has posted an even .300 AVG over 2737 PA (.288 AVG – .309 AVG). Baseball can happen at any time but go ahead and put me in the camp of, there ain’t no way Bogaerts runs a .265 AVG in 2023. And if you believe as I do, don’t get caught with your value pants unadjusted, or he’ll look like a much worse choice than he actually is.

For example, using the FanGraphs auction calculator for 12-team leagues (5×5 with Depth Chart projections), Bogaerts is projected as the #11 SS in 2023, which seems in line with ADP, as he’s the #10 SS being drafted. But we can also do some quick back-of-the-envelope math to notice how far that value is being dragged down by a batting average that is projected to be over 40 points lower than it was in 2022 (when he finished as the #8 SS). Keeping all else equal but swapping in his batting average earnings from 2022 (instead of what he’d get from a .266 AVG) and Bogaerts would jump to the #5 SS.

As mentioned, that’s playing pretty loose with the math (and would call for a repeat of a .308 AVG) but it should give you an idea of how much weight that extremely low batting average projection in 2023 is acting as a value anchor. Just like with Goldschmidt headed into 2022, if you believe more in Bogaerts’ batting average past than in its projected future, he is an easy value pick.

Tier: 20/20 Potential at Coors Field??? <insert head exploding gif NOW!>

Ezequiel Tovar, COL

“He’s gonna have to earn the job. We’ll give him every opportunity to earn it in Spring Training and see where it goes from there.” So sayeth, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt, when asked about the chances of Ezequiel Tovar making the club right out of spring in 2023. I’m liable to believe him, too! Even though it’s usually wise to not make that your default when weighing the words of MLB front offices. And that goes double when it comes to the Rockies actually giving their young prospects a real chance to play full-time, who instead tend to favor signing past-their-prime jags and block their youth.

Given the state of shortstop in Colorado, however, Tovar is not only the clear best option but is also currently just about the only option. Granted, the Rockies could sign or trade for a subpar veteran at any moment (I mean, José Iglesias and Elvis Andrus are right there) but right now, Alan Trejo (18 games) is their only other player who played shortstop in 2022.

Tovar was dominant at Double-A in 2022, slashing .318/.386/.545 over 295 PA, with 13 HR and 17 SB, and went 7-for-23 in a short stop at Triple-A, but then didn’t do much in his 2022 cup of coffee in the majors, slashing .212/.257/.333 over 35 PA, with one home run and one double. His fantasy skill set is well-rounded and is even more appealing because it comes with plenty of speed and a home park that is 5,200 feet above sea level. But it’s really hard to trust a rookie with only 58 PA above Double-A and that goes double for one that has to manage the difficulties of playing on the road for Colorado.

Remember, don’t focus solely on how Coors Field amplifies batted balls, and forget what it does to the pitched ones. The road splits for Colorado hitters aren’t just worse because their balls aren’t getting supercharged, it’s simply harder to hit because pitches move differently. No two ways about it; if sliders and curveballs (etc…) move one way at home and another way on the road, the hardest thing to do in sports (hitting a baseball) gets that much harder.

The speed-led skill set (and Coors) would make Tovar a fine dart throw but one that even if it works out, could have long stretches of road frustrations. But drafting him as a starter, as his ADP says some people are, is too high risk for me.

Tier: Capitol Dart Throws

Luis García, WSH

CJ Abrams, WSH

The good news is that Luis García is somehow still just 22 years old and really held his own in 2022, slashing .290/.312/.439 , with a .321 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Hey, that’s not too bad! Wait…Oh no, I’m sorry. Those were García’s numbers vs RHP. Facing LHP last season, he slashed .235/.250/.327, with a .252 wOBA and 58 wRC+. Yikes.

Well, at least his glove is good enough to keep him on the field, even if he’s terrible against his fellow left-handers, right? Oh no, not again – it looks like there’s more bad news. García has only racked a -19 OAA at shortstop over the past two seasons, with a -6 OAA at second base. However, we can end this compliment sandwich with a little more good news, as García is currently slated to play second, not shortstop, and his +1 OAA at the keystone in 2022 was far better than in 2021.

If García can approach 550 PA, he should compile enough counting stats (with a good batting average) to be valuable. But with no standout contributor, bad splits, and on a bad offense, I’m not super optimistic about his fantasy worth. However, with such a deep ADP, the cost is, at least, negligible.

I’m surprised how much lower the ADP of CJ Abrams is than that of Luis García, not that I think the latter should be lower, just that the former shouldn’t be so high. But that just goes to show you the power of theft potential. The speedy Abrams could easily bust out for 20+ SB with a batting average that won’t kill you but there’s no power and the R+RBI on a bad Washington offense are unlikely to be plentiful.

As someone to fill out the back of your bench with some speed-centered upside, sure. But counting on Abrams as a starter is a dicey proposition.