A new year and in turn, a new decade is now upon us! We have begun the Roaring Twenties once again. More importantly, fantasy baseball draft season is now upon us.

I am not one for paying large amounts of attention to positional rankings. Knowing who is valued as the 7^th best shortstop, or who the 11^th ranked second baseman is – is helpful no doubt, but that alone will not win you your fantasy leagues. We can spend time debating whether Rhys Hoskins is better than Trey Mancini, but since the duo have similar profiles, the discussion isn’t all that helpful on its own.

To me, the task that needs the higher priority – is the comparison of market prices to player valuations. The greater assignment is to determine the players which the market undervalues. One of the first exercises that I engage in – is to find the players which projections foretell a superior year as compared to where they are currently being priced.

The two needed components to complete this analysis are very generally:

• Projections
• Market

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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted (2B, SS) for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 50 Middle Infielders for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 Second Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

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Make no mistake, the Houston Astros are not the only baseball team stealing signs. They’re simply the most cavalier with their flaunting of convention. They chose to be confident about their narrow reading of the rules. They allege their actions to steal signs were legal because they used an already existing outfield camera. Basically, they claim to have misinterpreted the rules. Clearly they broke the spirit if not the letter. We’ll see if they’re truly punished or merely slapped upon the wrists.

This, of course, isn’t about real teams stealing signs. I want to focus on the fantasy equivalent. Whether you think of it as sign stealing or “reading” an opponent like a poker player, there is indisputable value to predicting and anticipating the actions of your rivals. The comments are open for you to share the ways you steal signs.

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A few weeks back, I posted that the 2020 edition of The Process was available in e-book form for downloading. All the loops have been jumped and now all it is available in paperback form at Amazon.

Here are some of the additions:

• A comparison to see if it’s more efficient to buy closers versus starters in the draft or wait for free agency for each one.

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With people already participating in 2020 drafts, I thought it was time to see where and if any positional tiers exist. I don’t believe in making up a tier where a dropoff doesn’t exist. I’m more looking for spots where for two or more rounds, a position should not even be in consideration to be drafted. Also, is there a point where the position just falls off and no one decent is left?

To set up the tiers, I used this 15-team Roto setup and our Depth Chart projections. I know everyone won’t agree with all the projections. I don’t, but they’ll provide a nice guideline for this discussion. It’s time to start with catchers.

Catcher

Tiers

• Tier 1. It’s four options and then wait.
• Tier 2. The rest of the options are evenly spaced until the end.

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I blame my podcat mate Rob Silver for today’s study. First, he stated this:

The history of 35-year old first basemen having seasons like what everyone think Votto is gonna do is almost non-existent.

Now Hall of Fame players do Hall of Fame things but everyone just assumes the curve goes back up – and I hope it does but man….

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) February 6, 2019

And then he said this:

Nelson Cruz hit 41 homeruns last year.

He’s awesome.

Super safe player to draft.

He’s 39 this year.

In the history of baseball one player has hit more than 40 homers at 39 or older – Barry Bonds.

Three players hit > 36 (Bonds, Hank Aaron, Papi)

Only 7 hit > 30.

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) November 18, 2019

Of course, players age. Some quickly. Some not as fast. While few hitters remain productive into and past their mid-30’s, I needed a simple rule on how to deal with these vets. I found one and since I need to provide content to be paid, so does the world.
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While it might be better to focus on FAAB usage right before the season starts, I wanted to have an idea on how to focus my draft resources. Also, FAAB management was one of my major faults after I picked over my 2019 teams. It was an issue and I need to address it. Now is the time. I took the 50 players with the highest average FAAB bids in the 2019 NFBC Main Event ($1000 in FAAB) and found which players were the best and worse deals and did the best deals have similar actionable traits.

Note: One unintended side effect was that the minimum average value was $51, so all players with a bid of over $50.

To rank the player’s usefulness, I pair them up against each other and let my Twitter followers which of the two players were a better deal last year. While not ideal or the only method I could have used (I could create from value to EOS), it was the quickest and the rankings pass the idiot check (me, myself, and I).

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I’m already tired of hearing everyone’s hot take on how Matheny is going to halt the Royals from stealing bases. I’m not sure they are wrong but the analysis, if there is any, is suspect. Most talking heads point to his Cardinals being second to last in stolen bases during his tenure (2012 to all of 2018). The Cardinals weren’t exactly full of speedsters during that time. Here are their top-10 hitters ranked by plate appearances.

Talk about “Wheelz”. Of these 10, Yadier Molina was second in steals. A catcher is second. This group would have problems stealing candy for a blind lady.
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This year’s edition of the Fantasy Baseball Process by Tanner Bell and myself is finally completed and the e-book is now available for sale (the paper version will be available at Amazon in a few weeks). We added over 50 pages of new material (link to list), cut out some info we felt was not needed, and included the historic standings and Standing Gains Points formulas to help with planning the 2020 season.

Before I move along to some of the highlights, I’d like to thank Dylan Higgins for the editing, Jared Cross for the Steamer projections, Clay Link for the introduction, Rob Silver for giving it a read over, and especially Tanner for hours and hours spent grinding through all the new changes.
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