Top 60 Outfielders for 2020
I decided to cut my OF rankings at 60 for this list, but let me be clear that there were another 15 or so who could’ve taken those last 4-5 spots. It’s definitely a mid-to-late round glob of talent, one of several that develops in the OF pool, including a power glob I highlight starting just after #30.
Other 2020 Rankings:
Think I missed someone who is a surefire top 60? Make your case in the comments below. I’m also curious if you have a strong preference with those top 3, who I seem to change my opinion on every other day lately.
Top 60 OF for 2020
| Rk | Player | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | SB dip causing panic, but sprint spd remains unchanged and elite |
| 2 | Christian Yelich | B2B brilliant seasons; only a fluke busted kneecap could stop him |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Near 40-40 yr makes him a #1 viable candidate if you so choose |
| 4 | Mookie Betts | Every bit as good as the top 3 & reasonable #4 overall pick |
| 5 | Cody Bellinger | Don’t sleep on sharply improved K% (down 8 pts to 16% in ’19) |
| 6 | Juan Soto | Basically carried ’18 pace over first full season; sneaky SBs, too |
| 7 | J.D. Martinez | One of the steadiest power bats in the game |
| 8 | Bryce Harper | AVG is the only flaw and 40-120 is still very much in play any given year |
| 9 | Aaron Judge | Still a 40-100 bat, but now 2 straight seasons under 500 PA |
| 10 | Starling Marte | Speed carries profile and has now has B2B 20+ HR yrs to go with it |
| 11 | Charlie Blackmon | 4 yrs of declining SB, but still a great pwr bat w/Coors protection |
| 12 | George Springer | Slightly overlooked stud sitting atop one of the game’s best lineups |
| 13 | Kris Bryant | Great R contributor, but has just 1 season of 100+ RBI |
| 14 | Giancarlo Stanton | Was starting to turn health profile w/159 & 158 gms before 18 gms in ’19 |
| 15 | Eloy Jiménez | Surged to finish line with .308/.342/.575 line & 14 HR in Aug-Sept. |
| 16 | Victor Robles | Pwr/spd combo carried light slash and 23 yr old still has room to grow |
| 17 | Ketel Marte | There will be some pullback on career yr; prefer to slot him at 2B |
| 18 | Tommy Pham | Averaging .284, 22 HR, 22 SB over the last 3 seasons |
| 19 | Austin Meadows | 2x Barrel rate plus FB & Pull rate jumps delivered massive breakout |
| 20 | Joey Gallo | Had a great half season, but AVG gains seem driven by .368 BABIP |
| 21 | Jeff McNeil | Premium contact and sneaky pop cuts a Brantley 2.0 profile |
| 22 | Michael Brantley | AVG asset thrived in HOU and will remain there for ’20 |
| 23 | Ramón Laureano | Pacing for 30/20 season before late-July inj; returned strong in Sept. |
| 24 | Nicholas Castellanos | Invigorated after trade to CHC; maybe 30-100 w/full yr on a good tm? |
| 25 | Eddie Rosario | Still chasing elusive 600 PA yr, but averaging .284/28/88/86 since ’17 |
| 26 | Michael Conforto | Has developed into solid 30 HR bat; next step 100 RBI? |
| 27 | Yasiel Puig | Just a bankable 25/15/.260 bat; we’ll find out his new team this winter |
| 28 | Whit Merrifield | Cut SBs from 45 to 20 and now has SB-stingy Matheny at the reins |
| 29 | Kyle Tucker | Put up 35 HR/30 SB per 600 PA in last 2 yrs at AAA; betting on breakout |
| 30 | Andrew Benintendi | Spd dip cut SB in half & K% jump ate in AVG; interesting, but be careful |
| 31 | Oscar Mercado | Was essentially 20 HR/30 SB if you include AAA work |
| 32 | Marcell Ozuna | Start of 7 bat pwr glob where minor differences can dictate preference |
| 33 | Jorge Soler | Bubbling pop finally surfaced w/elite 48 HR season |
| 34 | Max Kepler | Improvements vL (.293 AVG) and FB surge (53%) drove breakout |
| 35 | Kyle Schwarber | Averaging 35 HR per 600 PA over the last 3 seasons |
| 36 | J.D. Davis | StatCast darling could parlay vR jump into full-time role for ’20 |
| 37 | Franmil Reyes | AL landing perfect for this true DH; easy 30+ HR per 600 PA |
| 38 | Trey Mancini | Seems to be at the mercy of his BABIP: .352, .285, .326 the last 3 yrs |
| 39 | David Dahl | Just cannot be trusted for 500 PA until we actually see something close |
| 40 | Mitch Haniger | Maintained power in injury-shortened season, but BABIP tanked AVG |
| 41 | Adam Eaton | Finally showed what a healthy season can deliver |
| 42 | Andrew McCutchen | Could score 100 R even w/some missed time after ACL surgery |
| 43 | Luis Robert | Huge 30/30 season (32 HR/36 SB) will foster major 2020 hype |
| 44 | Scott Kingery | Still too much swing & miss, but finally showed off vast skills profile |
| 45 | Byron Buxton | Skills are there, the bet is on health (just 115 gms in 2018-19) |
| 46 | Lorenzo Cain | Power-starved bat now dealing w/dwindling speed at age-34 |
| 47 | Jo Adell | Needs some more AAA seasoning, but skills are very enticing |
| 48 | Willie Calhoun | High contact and power combo could yield .300/30 upside |
| 49 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Now has a full season of PA (606) in MLB: .279, 31 HR, 85 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB |
| 50 | Bryan Reynolds | Strong AVG asset has 20 HR/10 SB potential in full season atop lineup |
| 51 | Justin Upton | Injury-riddled season still had 30-HR pace; solid cheap buyback option |
| 52 | Shin-Soo Choo | Just keeps plugging w/3 straight 630+ PA yrs; useful 20/10 performer |
| 53 | Ryan Braun | Remains a force (.270/20/11 per yr since ’17) even if it’s only 450 PA |
| 54 | Aristides Aquino | Sneaky 7-for-7 SB contribution w/major power production |
| 55 | Nick Senzel | This depends on his Sept. labrum surgery recovery process; stay tuned |
| 56 | Austin Riley | Righties found a hole (.215 AVG), but still a 30 HR bat in 600 PA |
| 57 | Hunter Dozier | Legit pwr breakout and has some sneaky speed that could yield 10+ SB |
| 58 | Hunter Renfroe | Basically an older version of Riley w/a 30 HR season under his belt |
| 59 | Joc Pederson | You know what you’re getting: platoon bat w/.245 AVG & 25-30 HR |
| 60 | Mallex Smith | Led MLB w/46 SB, but hit just .227 w/no pop and only 70 R |
Corey Dickerson? Guessing somewhere around 50 but avg is huge
Literally 61 and I hated cutting off before him, especially for someone like Mallex Smith who I’m not a fan of (I don’t draft rabbits), but I couldn’t ignore 40+ SBs for two straight seasons
Where would you put Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama?
Probably depends on where they land and their path to playing time, no?
No love for Ender Inciarte? The hamstring has to get better eventually!
Maybe top 100, but sub-par 2018 season and injured 2019 season isn’t going to get the guy in the top 60.
Paul,
Are you considering Yorden Alvarez as ‘outfield’? If so why ushe not included? Fielding?
If not; where would he be if included?
Thanks, Mark
Good question. He had 10 games in LF last year in the majors (and 27 in the minors).
That’s enough for Yahoo and Ottoneu, but not for ESPN or CBS.
yah, I’ll add one for Yordan here. He is definitely going to OF eligible in Yahoo next year. Curious where he slots into these rankings.
Steamer suggests he should be around 15th, since he’s projected with stats that place him around Eloy or Bryant. Of course, Steamer is also suggesting that Stanton will hit 50 HRs, so this is not just a ranking using a projection system.
ya what a joke on Giancarlo. Even us Yankee fans don’t want him, don’t trust him and we know there is no chance of him hitting 50. Lets be honest. The Yankees would cut him if they didn’t have to pay. Mike Tauchman is a better hitter. So is Mike Ford. We’ll be lucky if Stanton PLAYS 50 games, let alone hits 50 homers.
Thought I’d see Brett Gardner after a 28 HR outburst. That’s 2 out of 3 years with 20+ HR, 15+ SB.
am i crazy for thinking that aristides aquino is undervalued? with a full season hitting 4th or 5th, a nudge to the babip, and you’re looking at a 40+/10+, 850ish ops, counting stat monster. a poor outcome would look a lot to me like 2019 kyle schwarber, minus a few walks and plus a few sb’s
Same. He has big boy power too, so even if the balls revert to how they were previously, it shouldn’t change his output. He also somehow has elite speed, so he could potentially steal more than 10 as well.
came here to make a comment about how aquino is undervalued here.
Yordan Alvarez?
74 mlb games at dh, just 10 in the outfield
Cody Bellinger worries me a little – he got worse essentially every month of the season in a lot of key metrics:
wRC+ = 248 – 155 – 141 – 142 – 130 – 127
wOBA = .547 – .405 – .384 – .384 – .366 – .362
K% = 11.4 – 14.7 – 18.2 – 19.6 – 20.4 – 14.7
LD% = 34 – 35.1 – 25.4 – 21.5 – 20.3 – 16.4
His overall line from May 1st on was .274/.381/.566 for a .381 wOBA and 140 wRC+. A line next season of ~135 wRC+ and .370 wOBA would be pretty disappointing for where he would likely be drafted.
I’m guessing this is part of the glob, but aren’t Schwarber and Joc awfully similar?
For Tucker, do you think a spot opens right away? They kept playing Reddick throughout the playoffs…
Last, Aquino? I could see him an absolute bust but also possibly very useful. I’d agree, though, that using probabilities instead of ceiling he should easily be off the list… but worth it if going high risk/high reward.
Given a full season what about A.J. Pollock? Freak wrist infection cut is season this past year, but can always count on over 5 p/g in Ottoneu.
He gets hurt for large swatches of literally every season. Drafting him “given a full season” is like trusting Colorado pitching. You’re just setting yourself up for heartbreak.
I see Bryan Reynolds ending the season in the top 25. Kid just has it and is only gonna get better.
I like Reynolds in real life, but not in fantasy. Last year’s power was more than he had ever done at any level previously. If the happy fun ball goes away, and even if it doesn’t, his ceiling is probably 15-20 HR. That, plus only a couple steals isn’t enough to put him in the top 25. The .387 BABIP is coming down, as well.
He looks a lot like his teammate Kevin Newman, but without the steals.
I know he’s on the 1B list (15 G), but Mark Canha was primarily an OF last year (93 G). Where would he rank here?
He was in the next 10 that just missed
I guess in a traditional 5×5 he’s probably outside the top 60 but Brandon Nimmo has to be on the fringe or if you’re in an OBP league more like top 30-40 right?
Robles 16 screams overreaching for SB, he’s not really good at anything else and the HR were a fluke
Saying he’s not good at anything else and that his HR were a fluke screams of pigeonholing a 23-year old as a finished product. Even in an imperfect, he went 17/28. Yes the SB are driving the ranking, but they stabilize his floor and I think he can grow.
Kris Bryant scares me.
88mph exit velocity(23rd percentile)
34% Hard Hit Rate(25th percentile)
Batted Ball Distance is trending down(204ft,196ft,186ft, 179ft this season)
Issues with off-speed stuff
He just hasn’t been right since 2016. I’m not saying he is doomed, but I feel he is the type of guy whose a good enough hitter to cover up the signs of “decline” until things kinda collapse(Matt Carpenter?)
Seriously, go to the Statcast Exit Velocity Leaderboard….look at all of the name below Bryant. The only ones that make it work are speedster(Starling Mate, Whit Merrifield, Altuve, Wong)
I know I’m a Statcast whore, I’m also not touching Robles with a 10 foot pole. I know bunts mess it up some, but I can’t get past an 81mph exit velocity. I know speed is scarce and that drives up the value. I know Robles hit 17 HR, but that is with the happy fun time ball too. I just get a José Peraza type vibe. Suddenly batted balls will fall the wrong way and you are looking at guy whose speed isn’t elite enough to carry a bad BA/meh power. Peak Hamilton/Gordon 50-60 SB guys don’t exist any more. I’ll wait and pray for a healthy Buxton or pick up a Ender Inciarte type much later. More than likely, I’ll just make aim for a few guys that get 8-10 SB rather than 3-4 SB to make up the difference.
No Yordan?
certainly doesn’t belong on this list…but Mike Yastremski hit .270 last year while on pace for 30 HRs if he had 600 PA. Could be a sleeper, especially if the Giants move in the fences next year.
Really enjoying the offseason rankings, Paul. Where would Rhys Hoskins fit in here?
He didn’t play OF in 2019 so I didn’t consider him
Dear Paul,
Normally you respond to the people and what they request. And I dig that about you Sporer. Seriously. You own up to things that might be shitty or wrong, and hit people back when you’re spot on. Good on ya. Here, in this article, we have many questions about Yordan. I hope that you are working on a good response to your number one response on this, and look forward to seeing it.
Yours truly,
A baseball name anagram from the NotGraphs era.
Eloy too high on this list in my eyes.