Help Needed: Hitters Who Played Through a 2018 Injury
When I hear or read about a hitter playing through an injury my interest perks up and he becomes an immediate draft target. Standard projections have no idea these players played hurt and the lower production keeps down future estimations. Savvy owners can give these players a small talent bump and reap some nice rewards. My current request to create a detailed list of hitters playing through injuries for 2019 preseason research and to test after next season.
A perfect example from last season was Xander Bogaerts who dealt with the “… challenge of playing through the second half of this season with an injured right hand.” Our preseason Depth Chart projection put his triple slash line at: .287/.350/.439. In a previous study, I found playing through an injury costs a hitter some power but by the next season, the effects are gone. Bogaerts did exactly as expected slashing .288/.360/.522 beating his power projection by 80 points.
Here the hitters who have been documented as playing through an injury during the 2018 season (2017 list).
Played Through an Injury
Name: Injury (article link)
- Jose Altuve: knee (link)
- Elvis Andrus: elbow (link)
- Nolan Arenado: shoulder (link)
- Brandon Belt: knee (link)
Kris Bryant: shoulder (link)- Byron Buxton: toe and migraines (link)
- Matt Carpenter: shoulder (link)
- Matt Chapman: hand (link)
- Carlos Correa: back (link)
Brandon Crawford: knee (link)- Rafael Devers: shoulder (link)
- Brian Dozier: knee (link)
- Edwin Encarnacion: hand (link)
- Maikel Franco: wrist (link)
- Joey Gallo: hamstring (link)
- Avisail Garcia: knee (link)
- Cesar Hernandez: foot (link)
- Kevin Kiermaier: foot (link)
- Jed Lowrie: leg (link)
- Jose Martinez: thumb (link)
- Nomar Mazara: thumb (link)
Yadier Molina: shoulder (link)- Logan Morrison: hip (link)
- Shohei Ohtani: elbow (link)
- Marcell Ozuna: shoulder (link)
- Salvador Perez: thumb (link)
- Tommy Pham: groin and finger (link)
- Buster Posey: hip (link)
- Eddie Rosario: quad (link)
- Addison Russell: knuckle (link)
- Travis Shaw: wrist (link)
- Kyle Seager: toe (link)
- Jorge Soler: rib (link)
- Steven Souza Jr.: pectoral (link)
- Giancarlo Stanton: hamstring (link)
- Mike Trout: finger (link)
- Mark Trumbo: knee (link)
- Ryan Zimmerman: back (link)
When it comes to hitter injuries, the hitters bounce back to being productive unless the injury becomes chronic (i.e. persisting for a long time or constantly recurring). Some recent examples are Prince Fielder’s neck forcing him out of the game and David Wright’s back keeping him in constant rehab. Like with the hitters who played through injury, I asked my Twitter followers for suggestions and will gladly take more in the comments.
For some hitters, the injury is well documented and the chronic label can be given. For others, the label may not stick. Miguel Cabrera was in this middling state coming into 2018. Was he going to get healthy or head back to the DL? He and his bum back headed to the DL.
For those with persistent issues, they should be acquired at a steep discount and have quite a bit of replacement value baked into his value. Besides those with known issues, I’ve included some hitters who need a clean 2019 to keep from joining the chronic crew.
Chronic Injuries
Well documented
- Ryan Braun (back)
- Miguel Cabrera (back)
- Yoenis Cespedes (lower body)
- Albert Pujols (feet)
- Troy Tulowitzki (everything)
Not 100% sure
- Greg Bird (shoulder)
- Jay Bruce (feet/ plantar fasciitis)
- Josh Donaldson (calves)
- Carlos Gonzalez (everything)
- Joey Votto (back)
- Ryan Zimmerman (back/core)
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Gleyber! First when on the DL in July with a hip injury, then missed some games in September with “tightness” in the “groin/hip” area. Sounds likely to be related, even if not connected publicly.
Side note: for the sake of the man’s family, Tulowitzki should be given Injured Person Emeritus status and be allowed to live out his days in peace. Bless you, Troy, and your gloriously kick ass, injury ridden career. As Neil Young said “It’s better to burn out than fade away”
Poor Tulowitzki. I laughed when I saw the (everything) note.
Jeimer Candelario: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/05/13/surgery-would-last-option-jeimer-candelarios-ailing-wrist/34873311/
Justin Turner broke his wrist in spring training. He came back in May and struggled when first coming back.
I couldn’t find any reference to his wrist bothering him in-season.
Nonetheless, his first weeks and months back he was a shell of his old self. Call it rehabbing in place, Spring Training on the fly, or what have you, it was clear that the injury (or at least the aftereffects) were depressing his production. Projections will see those poor results, and likely underestimate him in 2019 as a result.
I feel that this is similar to Freddie Freeman last year. Very quick return from an injury we know saps power.
Daniel Murphy – Return from microfracture knee surgery
Daniel Murphy pretty clearly came back a few weeks too early from his knee surgery and didn’t look to have his legs under him at the plate a lot of the year. He hit .200 with no power / poor exit velo in his first 15 games off the DL in June.
Conforto? It took a long time to get going after the shoulder surgery but he seemed to ditch a more passive, patient approach and, combined with (likely) better health, looked increasingly more like his ’17 self.
Votto played through a knee injury for at least a portion of the year.
https://www.mlb.com/news/joey-votto-right-knee-injury-lingers/c-290321758
I can’t find a link that mentions all of his injuries, but George Springer played through shoulder, elbow and some other issue.
I wish I could say Dexter Fowler, but as far as we know he was healthy until his season was (mercifully) cut short with a broken foot.
I don’t know if it’s documented, but I have to think Paul DeJong’s wrist was bothering him for a while after he returned from the DL.
Matt Chapman, apparently:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/matt-chapman-undergoes-thumb-surgery.html