Archive for Starting Pitchers

In one or several of my previous posts, I realized that a couple of starting pitchers that hit the Injured List had also recently suffered a decline in Location+. I haven’t seen a study that investigated whether a recent decline in the metric actually results in a higher chance of the pitcher landing on the IL and I’m not sure how such a study would be designed to begin with. So I don’t want to inspire panic among the owners of the 16 names on this list, but I figure it’s worth sharing as something to monitor, as it does feel like a sharp drop should be cause for concern.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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Endy’s Game this year is apparently power.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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Earlier in the week, we examined several pitchers who have been pitching better than their SIERA suggests. We’re following that up with pitchers who have been struggling and underperforming their SIERA this season.

The visual below shows the pitchers who ranked in the top 25 among pitchers who have underperformed their SIERA.

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O’Neill! Oh, Canada!

Now where has this power been all season?

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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Back in late April, I discussed how I use ERA-SIERA and other pitcher metrics to identify lucky and unlucky starting pitchers. Since it was so early in the season, we were working with a very small sample. Some of the pitchers highlighted as incredibly lucky have continued to perform well (e.g., Justin Wrobleski), while others have massively regressed (e.g., Bryce Elder). From the list of unlucky starting pitchers, most have performed much better over the last 10 weeks. Let’s review those pitchers from April and assess a few new candidates using a half-season of pitching data.

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Two of the best predictors of future pitcher success – K-BB% and SIERA – tend to correlate well with each other. So when you see a pitcher outperforming their SIERA while posting a low K-BB%, you have good reason to expect regression.

The visual below shows pitchers with 50 innings sorted by the largest difference in their ERA minus SIERA.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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There aren’t many refrains more common for fantasy sports writers than describing a hitter who is performing well during the summer as one who is “heating up with the weather.” 

And the thing is, more often than not, it is justified. Ballparks across the country become more hitter friendly as the weather heats up, and cold morning games and windswept, foggy night games become hot, humid oases for home runs. 

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