Follow-Up: Lucky and Unlucky Starting Pitchers
Back in late April, I discussed how I use ERA-SIERA and other pitcher metrics to identify lucky and unlucky starting pitchers. Since it was so early in the season, we were working with a very small sample. Some of the pitchers highlighted as incredibly lucky have continued to perform well (e.g., Justin Wrobleski), while others have massively regressed (e.g., Bryce Elder). From the list of unlucky starting pitchers, most have performed much better over the last 10 weeks. Let’s review those pitchers from April and assess a few new candidates using a half-season of pitching data.
Before we dive into the lists, here is a quick recap of my process:
Over the years, I utilize a simple formula (ERA minus SIERA) to identify pitchers who could be deemed “lucky”, with negative regression on the horizon, and vice versa — “unlucky” with a higher likelihood of positive regression. To further qualify the luck or lack thereof, I review BABIP and LOB% (left-on-base rate, or strand rate). In the context of fantasy baseball FAAB/waiver pickups or trades, I dig into pitchers’ year-to-date starts and look at their projected upcoming starts – both from a perspective of ballpark/environment and strength of opponent. Finally, I consider the most important metric of all: K-BB%. Proficient at punching batters out, able to locate pitches, and not walk a lot of guys? You’re probably going to have above-average results.
Unluckiest Starting Pitchers (First 4 Weeks)
| Name | Team | K-BB% | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 25.5% | 7.94 | 2.45 | 5.49 |
| Garrett Crochet | BOS | 18.1% | 7.88 | 3.47 | 4.41 |
| Mike Burrows | HOU | 13.1% | 6.75 | 4.08 | 2.67 |
| Jake Irvin | WSN | 13.2% | 6.00 | 4.12 | 1.88 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | 12.1% | 5.40 | 3.62 | 1.78 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | 14.4% | 5.63 | 3.89 | 1.73 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 17.2% | 5.06 | 3.38 | 1.69 |
| David Peterson | NYM | 10.9% | 5.40 | 3.75 | 1.65 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 16.5% | 5.06 | 3.63 | 1.43 |
| Slade Cecconi | CLE | 7.0% | 6.20 | 4.78 | 1.43 |
| Luis Severino | ATH | 6.3% | 6.20 | 5.11 | 1.09 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | 23.5% | 4.03 | 3.00 | 1.04 |
| MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 21.3% | 4.15 | 3.21 | 0.95 |
These starters got off to horrific starts. Several of them bounced back and performed well over the last 10 weeks, many of whom were the exact pitchers we’d have expected improvement from: Jesús Luzardo, Logan Webb, Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Gilbert. Webb and Jake Irvin spent some time on the IL, while Garrett Crochet, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have been on the IL for awhile now. Below are how these pitchers have performed in ERA over the last 10 weeks versus their first four weeks:
| # | Player | Team | ERA (Weeks 1-4) | ERA (Weeks 5-14) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 7.94 | 2.65 | 5.29 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | SFG | 5.40 | 2.09 | 3.31 |
| 3 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | 6.20 | 3.43 | 2.77 |
| 4 | Mike Burrows | HOU | 6.75 | 4.91 | 1.84 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 5.06 | 3.54 | 1.52 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 4.03 | 3.17 | 0.86 |
| 7 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 4.15 | 4.02 | 0.13 |
| 8 | Jake Irvin | WSN | 4.12 | 4.55 | -0.43 |
| 9 | David Peterson | NYM/CHC | 5.40 | 6.08 | -0.68 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 5.06 | 6.48 | -1.42 |
Logan Webb, in particular, has been brilliant in the month of June: a 3-1 record in five starts (38 IP) with a 29:4 K:BB and a 0.71 ERA. After getting crushed for 20 earned runs in his first four starts, Luzardo has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his last 13 starts. Slade Cecconi hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start over his last 10, and has raised his K%-BB% by nearly five points, up to 11.7%. His strikeout rate this season remains meager (18.1%), though his current 4.18 ERA is in the realm of reasonable expectations, without a huge variance from xFIP (4.25) and SIERA (4.41). Cecconi’s recent success in limiting runs boosts our confidence in him for deeper formats like 15-teamers, though we should remain cautious streaming him in shallower formats. MacKenzie Gore’s ERA continues to hover in the vicinity of his ratio indicators and his career ERA (4.17). Gore continues to be plagued by his control (still a 9-10% BB% pitcher), but he has certainly enjoyed making starts in his new home park, Globe Life Field. Gore sports much better numbers in Arlington (2.49 ERA, .252 wOBA) than on the road (5.48, .333). David Peterson is likely to have a better second half now that he is on a more competitive ballclub and won’t be yanked back and forth from his rotation, like in New York this year. Peterson’s 4.17 SIERA this season is much more in line with his career ERA (4.30) than his current ERA (5.86). Peterson should be rostered in all 15-team formats, and can be occasional streamer in shallower ones. Mike Burrows has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments among starting pitchers with a top 250 ADP. He should improve on his 5.48 ERA, though his indicators hover closer to 5.00 than last season’s 3.94 ERA. Burrows’ strikeout rate has taken a tumble as well, from 24.1% last season to 18.4% this season. He might be added and dropped in 15-team leagues a few more times in the second half.
Luckiest Starting Pitchers (First 4 Weeks)
Below is a list of the luckiest starting pitchers from that April 21 article.
| Name | Team | K-BB% | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Wrobleski | LAD | 4.3% | 1.88 | 5.18 | -3.30 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | 5.2% | 1.96 | 5.00 | -3.04 |
| Michael Wacha | KCR | 15.3% | 1.00 | 3.90 | -2.90 |
| José Soriano | LAA | 21.7% | 0.28 | 3.04 | -2.77 |
| Seth Lugo | KCR | 15.5% | 1.15 | 3.78 | -2.63 |
| Edward Cabrera | CHC | 6.6% | 2.38 | 4.84 | -2.46 |
| Clay Holmes | NYM | 7.5% | 1.96 | 4.26 | -2.31 |
| Nick Martinez | TBR | 7.6% | 2.45 | 4.74 | -2.29 |
| Parker Messick | CLE | 19.4% | 1.05 | 3.24 | -2.19 |
| Michael King | SDP | 10.7% | 2.28 | 4.39 | -2.12 |
| Bryce Elder | ATL | 16.9% | 1.50 | 3.59 | -2.09 |
| Jack Flaherty | DET | 3.7% | 3.47 | 5.55 | -2.08 |
| Davis Martin | CHW | 13.8% | 2.16 | 4.08 | -1.92 |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | 8.7% | 2.79 | 4.57 | -1.78 |
| Rhett Lowder | CIN | 7.6% | 3.10 | 4.78 | -1.67 |
| Taj Bradley | MIN | 20.3% | 1.63 | 3.29 | -1.67 |
| Bryan Woo | SEA | 16.3% | 2.25 | 3.91 | -1.66 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 7.9% | 3.06 | 4.70 | -1.65 |
This was an interesting group to track over the last 10 weeks. I’m sure none of us will forget the early-season victory laps and AL Cy Young favorite social media posts about José Soriano, or how Bryce Elder has finally “figured it out”. See for yourself how these early-season “lucky” starters have faired since:
| # | Player | Team | ERA (Wk1-4) | ERA (Wk 5-14) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Soriano | LAA | 0.28 | 4.91 | -4.63 |
| 2 | Bryce Elder | ATL | 1.50 | 5.11 | -3.61 |
| 3 | Michael Wacha | KCR | 1.00 | 4.08 | -3.08 |
| 4 | Bryan Woo | SEA | 2.25 | 5.31 | -3.06 |
| 5 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 2.79 | 5.79 | -3.00 |
| 6 | Parker Messick | CLE | 1.05 | 3.46 | -2.41 |
| 7 | Michael King | SDP | 2.28 | 4.06 | -1.78 |
| 8 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 3.06 | 4.82 | -1.76 |
| 9 | Davis Martin | CHW | 2.16 | 3.31 | -1.15 |
| 10 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | 1.88 | 3.03 | -1.15 |
| 11 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | 1.96 | 2.28 | -0.32 |
| 12 | Nick Martinez | TBR | 2.45 | 2.72 | -0.27 |
Elder has been a ratio-crusher, specifically over his last three starts, allowing 6 ER to the Mets, 8 ER to the Brewers, and 5 ER to the Giants. With Hurston Waldrep activated and slowly getting stretched out, it’s possible that Elder is booted from the rotation after the All-Star break. Soriano isn’t getting booted from the Angels rotation anytime soon, but the pain he’s bringing fantasy managers forces them to consider benching him. Over his last eight starts, Soriano has a horrific 15.1% walk rate. His 48 free passes is more than any other pitcher in baseball. Nick Martinez has predictably regressed, allowing three or more runs in five of his last six starts. Mitch Keller simply can’t be trusted. The potential of a disaster start always looms, and disasters were certainly not avoided lately as Keller has allowed 4+ ER in five of his last nine starts. Michael King and Bryan Woo may have been glossed over in that April 21 table of unlucky SPs, but apparently it was an omen. It would not have been shocking to see Woo and King among the league’s ERA leaders with sub-3.00 marks 10 weeks later. Alas, both have struggled and have been inconsistent. Woo’s walk rate remains stellar (under 5%), but he is giving up more fly balls (from 41.6% in 2025 to 46.5% in 2026) and has been getting crushed on the road (6.38 ERA, .335 wOBA vs. 2.00, .191 at home). King’s velocity is similar to his last few seasons, but his strikeout rate is down 4% and his walk rate has regressed, now close to 10%. We continue to start both pitchers as long as they’re healthy.
On the flip side, Davis Martin’s early-season gains have mostly held. Martin has had a couple of stinkers (9 ER at NYY, 6 ER at MIN), but his overall gains are noticeable: a 6.5% jump in strikeout rate (to 23.8%) and a near-2% decline in walk rate (6.3%). We continue to deploy him, though we would be wise to remain cautious for tough road starts. Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Wrobleski continue to outperform their peripherals, and their success is a mystery to many. Rodriguez’s ERA-to-SIERA differential of -2.52 (2.27 vs. 4.80) is the widest among pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings. His BABIP remains low (.247) and LOB% (86.6%) is well above average, and he’s getting good results despite the lowest strikeout rate (17.1%) and highest walk rate (9.2%) of his career. How much longer can he get away with this? I guess we’ll see as his final two opponents before the break are the Brewers and Dodgers. Now is the time to sell if you can get someone like a struggling Ryan Weathers or underperforming Cade Cavalli in return. Wrobleski is another anomaly as his ERA remains under 3.00 and his SIERA is a whoppingly high 4.62. His control is excellent (5% BB), he goes deep into starts quite frequently, and earns oodles of run support. The proverbial other shoe may drop for any one start, but he’s capable of bouncing back in the following start and maintaining his rotation spot for the rest of the season.
Here are two more pitchers to consider buying low on or adding in FAAB:
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sheehan has a huge differential between his ERA (5.08) and SIERA (3.58). His 15% swinging-strike rate is the fifth-highest among qualified pitchers and his 19% K%-BB% is elite. His performances over the past five weeks have been inconsistent, though his latest start against the Padres (5 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 2 BB – 5 K) was a step in the right direction. The manager in your league with Sheehan may also believe he’s underperforming, and the Dodgers jersey that Sheehan wears likely keeps his price tag out of the bargain bin, but it’s certainly worth exploring.
Jack Perkins, Athletics
Unfortunately, Perkins has to pitch half his starts at Sutter Health Park. Fortunately for him, Perkins is a very good pitcher who is stretched out and has a set role as one of the A’s starters. The underlying metrics are a bit tricky because he’s worked as a closer and a setup man, but overall, they look good. Perkins has a 3.32 SIERA vs. a 6.00 ERA, a 6% barrel rate, a 16% K%-BB% and a 13% swinging-strike rate. His .331 BABIP assumes some responsibility from his hitter-friendly ballpark, but it also portends some bad fortune. After allowing just one home run in 29 innings as a reliever, his home run rate has normalized, allowing five dingers in these past five starts. He gave up four of those five in his three home starts, and just one homer in his two road ones. After this week, the A’s hit the road for 12 of their next 15 games. Perkins is a viable fantasy starter for those road starts.
I’ll do another review towards the end of the season to see how Sheehan, Perkins and our original cast of lucky and unlucky pitchers are doing.
Vlad writes for RotoGraphs and is the head of fantasy baseball content at FTN Fantasy. He is a Tout Wars Expert League champ, member of the CDM Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame and has been nominated for FSWA writing awards six times. Vlad has been playing fantasy baseball since 1995, winning 42 NFBC leagues since 2012 and ranking in the top percentile in NFBC’s Online Championship contest (33% win rate, 52% cash rate; 64 leagues). Much to the chagrin of his colleagues and most baseball aficionados, Vlad is a lifelong Dodgers fan who claims his first gut call at age 9 was Kirk Gibson’s 1988 World Series home run. You can follow him on X and BlueSky @RotoGut.