Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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Angel in the outfield!

I know, it’s pronounced AHN-hel. He was fine, by the way.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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DeLuca? DeLightful!

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to project how a reliever will turn into a starting pitcher, especially within a season. We expect velocity to decline as a starter, and we imagine arsenals will evolve as they pitch deeper into games. Today, we’ll dive into three pitchers who made this transition in 2026. Two of these pitchers were on fantasy rosters this year and in the past, both entering the season in different roles than they have now. The third’s path to fantasy relevance was through deeper formats.

Like most of my pitching articles, we’re looking at the underlying skills and metrics, diving into the arsenal, movement profiles, locations, and command.

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Once considered anomalies, cutters and sinkers have moved to the forefront of pitchers’ arsenals in 2026. As pitchers develop and pitching staffs look to push the boundaries, increased horizontal and vertical movement on fastball variants has given pitchers yet another edge over hitters. While these pitches have always existed, rather than being utilized as a primary pitch in isolation they are now being used more and more often in relationship to one another. This juxtaposition is what makes them such a challenge for hitters and increasingly popular as an arsenal tool.

So the real question for hitters has become: which fastball is coming? They are being used increasingly interchangeably, thrown from similar release points, with almost identical velocities, which compounds the challenge with each at-bat. From a fantasy perspective, this trend toward a certain profile or archetype of multi-fastball pitcher is one worth monitoring as we consider draft strategy — particularly in the later rounds — or waiver additions, as the never-ending search for value continues.

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Similar to Stuff+’s strong correlation with strikeout rate, Pitching+ sport a -0.506 correlation with ERA among pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings from 2021 to 2025. That means the higher the Pitching+, the lower the ERA. The correlation isn’t quite as strong as Stuff+, but still quite meaningful. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers that have enjoyed the biggest Pitching+ gains and suffered the largest losses this year. We would expect ERA to move in the same direction, but that’s not always the case when lady luck is involved.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to my debut article, covering three starting pitchers struggling in 2026. Beyond the typical luck and skill factors, we want to examine a pitcher’s pitch mix, movement profile, location, and more to figure out whether these starting pitchers are likely to improve as the season progresses. Two of the struggling pitchers are veterans with a lengthy track record; the third is a less established arm who has teased us with his skills.

Will these starting pitchers perform better soon? Or should we consider dropping or selling low in some formats?

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They make us feel like gods. Those pitchers who begin the season on the fringe of being rostered who you stream against a weak offense to begin the season, who then go on to give you five innings with a handful of strikeouts and a win. 

In this throw away culture where newer is always better, it’s easy to lose sight of the essentials. And that’s especially true when “newer” means throwing three different fastballs over 97 mph or uncorking splitters that are hurled so fast they necessitate a new name.

That presents an opportunity. To zig where the market is zagging today is to not cast aside the command artists as flukes, but instead to let results come before the flashiest of underlying numbers. If the K-BB% isn’t convincing and the Stuff+ is lacking, there is still a path to success, and to surplus value via waiver wire adds and trades.

You know this story already. 

Remember Rick Porcello? Read the rest of this entry »

As you may have noticed, I skipped last week’s Pitcher Playing Time Changes because when I ran the query of our database to find the significant changes there really weren’t any. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case this week, as evidenced by Tarik Skubal’s surgery to remove a bone chip. Here are the notable swings for starters and relievers alike: