Yesterday, I continued my annual tradition of polling you on groups of players falling into two performance vs expected buckets, by comparing hitters’ wOBA against their xwOBA. Today, let’s finish things off by comparing starting pitchers’ ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.
Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.
After a week off for the holiday, I’m back with notable pitcher playing time changes for the last two weeks for starters and relievers. Here are the tables:
| Name | Team | Old % of Team’s Remaining GS | New % of Team’s Remaining GS | % Change | Old Remaining GS | New Remaining GS | GS Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bennett | BOS | 5% | 13% | 8% | 4 | 9 | 5 | Holding onto Early’s rotation spot |
| Luinder Avila | KCR | 7% | 13% | 6% | 5 | 9 | 4 | Ragans/Bubic injuries solidify his spot |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | 13% | 18% | 5% | 9 | 13 | 4 | Back from the IL |
| Cole Ragans | KCR | 6% | 0% | -6% | 4 | 0 | -4 | UCL surgery might wipe out 2027 too |
| Kris Bubic | KCR | 14% | 8% | -6% | 10 | 6 | -4 | Rehab assignment put on hold |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | 14% | 8% | -6% | 10 | 6 | -4 | Working out of the bullpen for now |
| Chris Bassitt | BAL | 15% | 9% | -6% | 11 | 6 | -5 | Back surgery pushes return back |
| Connelly Early | BOS | 15% | 8% | -7% | 11 | 6 | -5 | Elbow inflammation |
| Rhett Lowder | CIN | 14% | 7% | -7% | 10 | 5 | -5 | Moved to bullpen, is Triple-A next? |
| Patrick Corbin | TOR | 13% | 5% | -8% | 9 | 4 | -5 | Moved to bullpen |
| Carlos Rodón | NYY | 19% | 10% | -9% | 13 | 7 | -6 | Elbow inflammation |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 16% | 6% | -10% | 11 | 4 | -7 | New shoulder injury, return this season unclear |
| Name | Team | Old Remaining RP IP | New Remaining RP IP | Chg | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Romano | COL | 10 | 34 | 24 | Has taken over as closer(!) since contract selected from minors |
| Jason Foley | SFG | 12 | 30 | 18 | Nearing IL return |
| Jovani Morán | BOS | 18 | 29 | 12 | Back from IL and important in the middle innings |
| Wilber Dotel | PIT | 17 | 28 | 11 | Nearing IL return |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | ATH | 23 | 33 | 10 | Back from IL and could quickly move up the trust tree in that mess of a bullpen |
| Austin Warren | NYM | 31 | 9 | -22 | Strained forearm |
| Jalen Beeks | TEX | 27 | 0 | -27 | Season-ending flexor tendon surgery |
| Anthony Banda | MIN | 34 | 0 | -34 | Season-ending lat surgery |
Did not have Caleb Durbin, Power Monster, on my bingo card.
On the Agenda:
We’re back with another rookie check-in, covering several rookies that have been making an impact in fantasy baseball leagues. The theme of today’s article is the examination of several left-handed starting pitchers. Two of these rookies have been performing well. The third pitcher has been struggling, but was a highly ranked prospect.
We’re examining their strengths and weaknesses, notable parts of their arsenal, stuff, and command, intending to provide a recommendation for whether we should be buying, selling, or holding in keeper or dynasty leagues.
Daullton Varsho is incredible!
This one preserved the no-hitter, but then it became a hitter.
On the Agenda:
We’ve had about a month to digest the Swing Timing and Miss Distance Leaderboards on Baseball Savant. Like with any new metric, there’s probably some noteworthy information and some noise. Let’s by looking at league averages across as a starting point. Here are the the league averages for these metrics across all pitches:
That will provide context for each metric as we dig into specific pitch types, in the table below. Forkballs, splitters, changeups, and breaking pitches (sliders, curves, slurves, sweepers) tend to lead to a higher average miss distance. Meanwhile, the fastball types (cutters, sinkers, four-seamers) generate misses of roughly two or fewer inches.
I last reviewed starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers and decliners about a month ago, so it’s time to take another gander at each group.
Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.
Every off-season, we hear about pitchers tinkering with their pitch mix, whether that’s simply trying a new grip shown by a teammate, reimplementing old pitches, or reshaping their arsenal. It is always interesting to track new pitching trends to see what sticks in a given season. So I wanted to look at a few pitchers who have made meaningful changes to their arsenal so far in 2026, and how it has impacted their value moving forward.