Ring The Alarm Bells? 16 Starting Pitcher Location+ Decliners

In one or several of my previous posts, I realized that a couple of starting pitchers that hit the Injured List had also recently suffered a decline in Location+. I haven’t seen a study that investigated whether a recent decline in the metric actually results in a higher chance of the pitcher landing on the IL and I’m not sure how such a study would be designed to begin with. So I don’t want to inspire panic among the owners of the 16 names on this list, but I figure it’s worth sharing as something to monitor, as it does feel like a sharp drop should be cause for concern.

With that in mind, let’s review a slew of starting pitchers that have experienced the sharpest declines in Location+ over the last 30 days.

I doubt anyone actually owns Luinder Avila, who has posted a 14.6% walk rate, which came down a bit after walking just one over five innings yesterday. He hasn’t posted a single digit walk rate at any level since High-A back in 2023. He should be nowhere near fantasy rosters, even without the Location+ drop.

Davis Martin has been one of this year’s bigger starting pitcher surprises, posting a 3.08 ERA and already winning nine games thanks to a surprisingly strong White Sox offense. I have no idea how he has been so successful, though, as his full season Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ are all well below average, and the first two metrics are both down meaningfully over the last 30 days. Since he has also dramatically overperformed both his SIERA and xERA, he’s a name to aggressively look to trade away if you’ve been fortunate enough to benefit from his luck so far.

Seeing Connelly Early’s high on this list after he was placed on the IL with elbow inflammation was all I needed to see to make the decision to post this. Luckily, he was pretty good in his last three starts before the injury.

This essentially covers Shane Drohan’s transition into the rotation, but you wouldn’t necessarily expect such a move to affect his Location+, only his Stuff+. The latter has dropped marginally, but his Location+ is down more. The 27-year-old rookie has been pretty good this year with a strong slider and mid-90s fastball. Incredibly, his fastball velocity has increased meaningfully every year since 2023 and hasn’t really dropped moving from the bullpen to rotation. We often see pitchers who have enjoyed sudden velocity increases land on the IL, so combine that with the Location+ decline and you have to wonder.

Cam Schlittler is coming off his worst start of the year and after sub-2.00 ERA marks in both Mar/Apr and May, he has posted a more human-like 3.38 ERA in June. That’s obviously still strong, but his Stuff+ is down slightly, along with his Location+. It’s hard to believe he can maintain that near-30% strikeout rate with an average 27.1% CSW% and he’s already overperforming both his SIERA and xERA. While I would shop him around to see if you can get an elite bat, his last outing probably dampened his perceived value.

Add Sean Burke to the list of White Sox starters outperforming expectations. Unlike Martin above, Burke’s ERA estimators are in line with his actual mark, but his Location+ has gone from above average to just below. Perhaps it was just regression to his mean, as his mark now stands exactly where it did in 2024 and slightly higher than last year. I do question his ability to maintain a mid-20% strikeout rate, though, as a 98 Stuff+ is below average and only his fastball sits above 89, which is quite shocking to see.

Uh oh, anytime you see Jacob deGrom’s name on a list that could portend injury, it’s worrisome. His Stuff+ is down from its peak, but still well above average, while his Location+ is right in line with history on the year. What’s interesting here is that he put together a string of five straight starts in mid-April to mid-May with a Location+ of at least 113. Outside of his first start with a 125 Location+ on that five start string, he hasn’t been above 108. So looking at the game logs suggest it isn’t as worrisome as perhaps when looking at the averages over each period. The underlying skills here remain elite, but he’s sitting on his highest ERA since 2017 thanks to an inflated HR/FB rate. He’s always a risky trade acquisition since you worry about injury after every start, but in a shallow league, I actually think he makes for a good target.

It figures that the first time I own Framber Valdez, he posts his worst results and skills as a full-time starter. Luckily, I was able to trade him recently, and finding his name here is more validation I made the right move. In addition to the drop in Location+, his Stuff+ is down five points over the last 30 days. With a sub-20% strikeout rate, his value has taken a significant hit even without the worry of injury. Unfortunately, his trade value is likely heavily discounted right now, so all owners could do is cross their fingers.

Mitch Keller should have been jettisoned from fantasy teams after lucking into a 3.18 ERA at the end of April, and he’s been brutal ever since. With a career worst strikeout rate, there’s nothing redeeming here to hold out hope and the injury concern is just another reason to move on.

With a decline in Location+ to match the league average and below average Stuff+, I have no idea how Brandon Young is succeeding. In a deep league where some team might value a surprising consistently decent starter, trade him for anything you can get.

Wow, talk about a rebound off last season’s disappointing performance, Dylan Cease! He has posted Location+ marks in triple digits in seven of his 16 starts, though his July 3rd start hasn’t been populated yet. His second lowest mark of 79 was posted during the last 30 days, and his fourth lowest of 88 was as well. I don’t think his game log screams alarm bells though, unless his last start comes back sub-90 as well. For the season, his Stuff+ is just below last year, and his Location+ is well below, while his SwStr% is under last year as well, yet his strikeout rate has rocketed to a career high. I don’t think that lasts.

Is it time to panic about Paul Skenes? The full season underlying skills are identical to last year, resulting in about the same SIERA and xERA as last year. The difference? A HR/FB rate that regressed to league average like it should, and an LOB% that has collapsed from an unsustainably elite level to well below average. The LOB% should absolutely improve, but you can’t expect his HR/FB rate to drop back into single digits. Anyway, back to his Location+ decline of five points, which came as he has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts. Luckily, the Location+ drop was anchored by an uncharacteristic mark of just 80 three starts ago, but he has rebounded to post marks of 118 and 106.

Perhaps more concerning is a Stuff+ drop of seven points, as he has posted a mark of 96 or lower in four of his last five starts. That’s pretty crazy for a guy who posted a 110 mark last year. For the season, he’s at just 98, which is below league average, for a consensus top two pitcher. Amazingly, it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate, but with just a 26.6% CSW%, you have to imagine it will at some point.

With below average stuff now for a third straight season, Jeffrey Springs needs his Location+ to succeed, but it hasn’t been there recently. He’s walked four batters twice in his last three starts, allowing six runs in both of those starts. He should be nowhere near lineups, especially when pitching at his home run haven home park.

I liked Zebby Matthews last year when he enjoyed a velocity spike, but that’s gone, and his Stuff+ and strikeout rate have dropped along with the velocity spike disappearance. Over the last 30 days, both his Location+ and Stuff+ have dropped by five points, so I’m totally out on him.

You don’t actually own a Rockies pitcher, right? It’s actually pretty amusing to see Ryan Feltner’s strikeout rate fluctuate in such a narrow range between 18% and 19.9% over his career. How’s that for consistency?!

For a guy who missed the last two season due to injury, it’s not great to see such a drop in Location+ for Shane McClanahan, who was already below average before it. Luckily, his Stuff+ has remained well above average and has only dropped by a point. Still, that Stuff+ is itself down compared to his previous two healthy years and his Location+ is down even more. You might not even realize it thanks to the near-3.00 ERA, but the underlying skills have been pretty mediocre and he has dramatically overperformed his SIERA and xERA. He’s a good name to dangle for offensive help.