Starting Pitchers Home and Away FIP Splits

More than most, starting pitchers are creatures of habit and comfort. Certain parks, weather conditions, and opposing teams can have a great impact on performance. Pitching at home in particular can offer a level of comfort. But try telling that to the Athletics pitching staff, who had to go from a minor league park to pitching on the moon in Las Vegas in their miniseries earlier this month.

The reality is that pitchers are individual beasts who each react in their own way to the conditions they perform in, some more than others. In fantasy, we can use this to our advantage, as the gap between performances for some starters, whether at home or on the road, can diverge greatly. Below are the starters with the biggest differential between home and away:

The most interesting observation at first glance of the chart is the two high-profile Mariners at either end. T-Mobile Park is well known to perhaps be the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, with a league-low Statcast park factor of 91, and it has produced the highest number of strikeouts in the league over the past three seasons. So it is surprising that Logan Gilbert, who has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball, has suffered so much when on the mound in Seattle this season. So far in 2026, the gap in his FIP is 2.60, favoring his performances on the road. However, this does not tell the full story. His home FIP currently sits at 4.75, but his home xFIP is 3.67, with a 2.01 HR/9 at home against 0.26 away. He has also turned a corner in recent weeks.

Gilbert’s last three home starts combined: 18.2 innings, 5 earned, 26 strikeouts, 4 walks, 3 homers, an ERA around 2.41. That drops to 2 earned, 18 strikeouts, 3 walks, and one homer, an ERA around 1.35, across his last two. While this may seem like a small sample, I think we can infer from his slightly inflated FIP earlier in the season and a normalised HR rate that the underlying form is real. So while his overall splits don’t look pretty, Gilbert is a must-start with the ceiling to be one of the best fantasy pitchers in the second half of this season, given his ability to miss bats and his strong record on the road.

His teammate Bryan Woo has had the opposite problem, and it is of much greater concern. Woo was unflappable last season, finishing in the top five in Cy Young voting, and has continued that form at T-Mobile. However, his away form should ring some alarm bells. Not only does his ERA go up from 2.00 to 6.38, but what really stands out is the inability to miss bats on the road. Woo’s K% at home is well above average at 31 percent, and it drops all the way to 19 percent away from home. While his BABIP and LOB% might suggest he has been a little unlucky, his xFIP and xERA are real causes for concern. Despite his value as an early-round pick, he is someone I would consider benching on the road if you have the pitching options to cover, at least until he puts a couple of strong away outings together, though his next two projected starts are in Seattle.

Similar to Gilbert, Philadelphia’s Jesús Luzardo has seemingly struggled at home, but he is definitely a buy-low candidate, as his home results do not reflect his actual performances. Luzardo has again fallen victim to the long ball, giving up 8 homers in Citizens Bank Park, five of which came across two games. This is despite having one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the league at 30 percent and 28 percent at home. Paired with a .331 home BABIP and a brutal 54.1 percent home LOB rate, with a home xFIP of 3.25 under a 4.24 FIP, it suggests he has had some bad luck in Philadelphia this season. He has also maintained a palatable 18 percent K-BB%, which can be improved upon as we enter the second half. Luzardo, as a fantasy option, is undervalued in my eyes, with his stat line skewed by some unlucky home performances. He has also been excellent on the road, a 2.07 away FIP with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate. Watch out for a strong second-half showing.

Another interesting candidate from this chart is Walbert Ureña. The Dominican rookie has had a pretty solid, if not slightly inconsistent, start to his MLB career. I noted him in my rookie starting pitchers chart as an interesting name to monitor as the season progressed, and he has continued to put together solid outings, particularly at home. This is interesting because while Angel Stadium sits around the middle of the pack in park factor, it is well above average in home runs allowed. Whilst the sample size is still pretty small, similar to Woo, he has struggled more with striking out batters on the road, where his xFIP suggests he has pitched better than his results show. But with such a small sample size, this is one to monitor. The home strikeout rate is the encouraging part and the most reliable signal for some fantasy value, but he still really lacks the ability to command his pitchers. The high home walk rate is why the overall profile stays at a deep-league streamer.

Not really a fantasy option in 2026, but Jack Flaherty is having an up-and-down season. Flaherty’s 5.60 home ERA badly misrepresents how he’s pitched, since his home FIP is 2.62 and his home strikeout rate of 30.5 percent is a career high. The culprit is a 52.0 percent home strand rate; this is doing most of the damage to his ERA, and it will not stay that low. So he could be a buy-low at home, unlucky rather than bad, while his road struggles are real. But this would be a deep, deep pull, if you were really in a pinch, and maybe one to simply monitor for now.

Jacob deGrom shows a real home bias, which is to be expected given GlobeLife Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks. A 2.74 home FIP against 4.76 away, driven mostly by home runs, 1.08 HR/9 at home versus 2.20 on the road. But the underlying skill barely moves, his away xFIP is 3.63 against a 2.87 home mark, and his strikeout rate stays elite both ways at 32.7 and 26.6 percent, so the road version of him is still very good, not the 4.76 FIP it shows. Goes without saying that he is a must-start, but worth noting that away FIP is exaggerated and not to cause any concern.

Here is the full pitchers’ Home/Away chart below. I will definitely be keeping track of this as samples grow and we can gain a much more complete understanding of any pitchers’ splits that we can use in our fantasy decision-making.