Last week I tried to create benchmarks for what should be considered a replacement-level player in a few of my FanGraphs points leagues. Here’s what I came up with for middle-infield players:

2B Replacement Level: 3.71 P/G
SS Replacement Level: 3.51 P/G

The actual MI position is a tricky one to nail down, so I’ll just separate the two positions out for now. This replacement level mark is not an exact science. Maybe your league mates have been stock-piling shortstops for some reason and that would change the way you calculate a replacement-level player. Regardless, if you have a sense of what kind of player you can typically find on the waiver wire throughout the season, you can make decisions on whether a player is worth keeping in 2024 or not. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of my middle-infielders and analyze their keepworthiness for 2024.

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Tommy Edman, 2B/SS/OF
Salary: $11.00
Average Salary: $11.98
2023 P/G: 4.17
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.50

Edman’s projected 4.50 P/G according to Steamer places him in Tier 5 among all players who played in over 75 games last season. Steamer expects Edman to take a step forward in 2024, increasing his P/G mark by over 0.30 P/G. What’s the reason for that? Well, his BABIP was at a career-low .248 in 2023 and Steamer took notice, bumping it up to .264 in 2024, which is aiding increases in his slash line:

2023: .248/.307/.399
2024: .264/.321/.407 (PROJ)

Though Edman did lose some time to injury in 2023, he still reached 528 plate appearances. Steamer has bumped that up to 536 in 2024 and FanGraphs Depth Charts is even higher at 581. No one seems too concerned that Richie Palacios will be taking over either 2B or SS playing time from Edman in 2024. Unless something unexpected happens this offseason, Edman seems like a very good lock at everyday SS. Edman’s speed is still an asset and though FanGraphs points leagues reward power and slugging percentage more, speed still plays and I’m banking on a positive hitting regression for Edman.

Keep or Cut?
I am keeping for 2024. If I were rostering him for $12, I would cut him and take my chances trying to get him back for less at the auction. Cuts have not been made in this league yet, and when I look at the players who are not rostered at the 2B/SS positions who played more than 75 games in 2023, the best I can find is 4.35 P/G (Jeff McNeil). That makes me feel pretty good about where I’ve set the replacement level considering McNeil ended the year on the IL.

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Andrés Giménez, 2B
Average Salary: $9.11
Salary: $6.00
2023 P/G: 4.39
Proj 2024 P/G: 5.15

Giménez’s slash line took a hit in 2023 compared to 2022:

2022: .297/.371/.466
2023: .251/.314/.399
2024: .265/.328/.427 (PROJ)

If that’s not an example of a projection system regressing to the mean then I don’t know what is. It would be easy to say that he was BABIP’d in 2023 (.289) and move on. But Giménez is still only 25 years old and I do think there is another gear in his game. His power skills took a hit in 2023, but he played in a career-high 153 games. Could there be an aspect of fatigue involved? Take a look at some of his power skills between 2022 and 2023:

Barrel% 2022: 6.2 -> 2023: 5.5
HardHit% (Statcast) 2022: 37.6 -> 2023: 27.0
xwOBA 2022: .326 -> 2023: .300
EV: 2022: 87.8 -> 2023: 84.8
MaxEV 2022: 109.9 -> 2023: 108.8

He also started to pull the ball more with less power:

There is a disagreement between his statcast HardHit% and his SportsInfo measurements. Regardless of which you believe in more, the bump in 1% in the graph would need to be a whole lot higher in order for the pull-the-ball-in-the-air approach to help Giménez’s power. Though the table below is not adjusted for batted ball events, it does indicate that Giménez is generating the most power from line drives:

He seems to find himself in this place where he needs to add a little more power to his pull-the-ball-in-the-air approach, or he needs to simply focus on making hard contact and plate discipline to increase his BB%. His 30 stolen base potential is at risk and declines further from the .314 OBP he showed in 2023.

Keep or Cut?
Last season’s 4.39 P/G was well above what I’ve marked as replacement level (3.71 P/G) and Steamer likes a positive regression in 2024. The upside is there, stolen base potential and perhaps he finds a way to add power to his new approach. If not, and he reverts back to a harder-hit ball, not in the air, then I still like what he did in 2022. Most second basemen with over 75 games in 2023 at 5.00 P/G were rostered, on average, between $5-$12. I’m keeping anywhere below $8 and might even go a few dollars higher.

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Brice Turang, 2B/SS
Average Salary: $4.30
Salary: $3.00
2023 P/G: 2.51
Proj 2024 P/G: 3.87

Turang’s projection places him above the replacement level at 2B in 2024, but just barely. He came very close to a full season in 2023, playing 126 games and recording 546 plate appearances. Steamer projects a step forward when looking at his slash line:

2023: .218/.285/.300

2024: .246/.319/.370 (PROJ)

Steamer also thinks his six home runs and 26 stolen bases will turn into 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases next season. Turang is not being rostered in Ottoneu leagues due to his ability to provide a P/G mark above that of any replacement-level player. Managers are rostering for his future value and upside potential. The question is, will it come? For now, he seems good enough defensively to stay in the 2B position, and depending on what happens to shortstop Willy Adames in 2025 when he hits free agency, it could be a few more seasons before we really get a sense of what Turang will become. His contact rates from 2023 looked a little troublesome and he really struggled to hit the fastball. While rookies walked 8.1% and struck out 25.8% of the time in 2023, Turang did better, walking 8.5% of the time and striking out 21.0% of the time. However, he did not hit the ball hard very often, only barreling the ball 2.9% of the time. The league average among rookies is 7.6%.

Keep or Cut?
This is my last season holding Turang for upside and it might not last long. He hasn’t shown the skills necessary to be a rosterable hitter, yet. That is in a points format, however. Any player who can hit 10 home runs and steal 20 bases at a very low price should probably be rostered in roto formats. In points formats, anything over $3 is a cut for me.

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Jonathan India, 2B
Average Salary: $12.13
Salary: $16.00
2023 P/G: 5.20
Proj 2024 P/G: 5.23

India found himself in Jeff Zimmerman’s “Hitters Who Played Through a 2023 Injury” report at the end of the season, but the difference between his projected OPS and final OPS was a tiny .003. Regardless, Zimmerman’s research has determined a decline in performance while players play through injury, and with an injury like plantar fasciitis, the one India suffered through in 2023, you can hope that India will improve with health in 2024. Even with the injury, he was above replacement. Players who earned around the 5.0 P/G mark in 2023 with over 75 games have an average salary between $5-$14.

In 2023, India’s BB% increased, his K% decreased, but his overall slash line declined, except for SLG. His wOBA was also up over his 2022 mark. His BABIP was at a career low, .281. His power metrics and batted ball profile have roughly stayed the same, but he’s hitting the ball in the air more. The problem is that his fly ball increases did not correspond with his power increases throughout the season:

His swing percentages tell a story, I’m just not sure what the story is. It looks as if his swing decisions have improved. He has swung outside of the zone less often, swung inside the zone more often, and become more selective overall. None of that really helped against left-handed pitchers, though, he hit .207 against them. That’s the second-worst mark in front of Alan Trejo among second basemen with at least 100 plate appearances against lefties. That’s worrisome when you look at the Reds RosterResource page and see India lined up in the DH spot. He feels dangerously close to finding himself platooned.

Keep or Cut?
I think the $10 or $11 dollar mark is appropriate. Anything over $12 feels like a cut.

As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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After running through the second base rankings, we turn our attention to the other up-the-middle position: shortstop.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The talent level at shortstop feels deeper than it has in a long time. The top of the rankings are filled with established superstars and you’d do well to pick any one of those seven. Some of that depth is due to the group of young prospects who are on the verge of really establishing themselves in the big leagues. Betting on a big breakout from Gunnar Henderson, Wander Franco, Oneil Cruz, or Ezequiel Tovar presents some risk, but the rewards could be astronomical.

Once you get past the top 20 or so options, there’s a steep cliff down to the lower tiers. Like second base, these lower tiers are filled with youngsters with potential upside and flexible options eligible at multiple positions. The depth at shortstop likely means you’re filling your middle infield position with a second shortstop, unless you really want to pay for another top second baseman. However you choose to fill these three positions, you’ll want plenty of bench depth to ensure you’re hitting your games played cap for all three spots.

Two Guys I Like More than Chad
Xander Bogaerts – I have Bogaerts a tier higher than Chad and I think it all comes down to consistency. Over the last five seasons, he’s posted a 134 wRC+ with no individual season that’s diverged more than a handful of points from that five-year average. Combine that with an exemplary health history, and he’s as sure a bet to post a solid offensive season again in his new home in San Diego. He did post the lowest power output in this five-year stretch last year; his fly ball rate fell by more than five points and his barrel and hard hit rates both dropped a bit too. Despite blasting just 15 home runs, his wOBA fell by just five points from what he had posted over the last two seasons.

Dansby Swanson – There are plenty of reasons to doubt Swanson’s ability to repeat his career-year. On the surface, it looks like his success at the plate is tied to his BABIP with all the ups-and-downs that come with batted ball luck. To a certain extent, that’s true; he strikes out a bit too much making him more reliant on good outcomes when he puts the ball in play. He was able to improve his contact quality last year, posting a career-high hard hit rate while maintaining his elite barrel rate. That gives me a bit more hope that he can maintain his high BABIP while continuing to hit for power.

For the most part, Chad and I agreed on the general contours of the position so I could only find two guys who I liked enough to merit a blurb.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Oneil Cruz – I’m fully aware that I could regret putting Cruz here by the end of the season if everything works out for him. The tools are there and they’re loud. The problem for him is generating enough contact to do enough damage to buoy his high ceiling. And when he is putting the ball in play, it’s on the ground far too often for someone with his kind of power. He’s a few adjustments away from really breaking through which means there’s a ton of risk in paying up to make him your primary shortstop.

Vaughn Grissom – The Braves are set to give Grissom a long look at shortstop this year, hoping he’s the future at that position. He impressed in his initial callup to the majors last year, posting a 121 wRC+ in just over 150 plate appearances. The problem is that a lot of his success was BABIP driven with some serious red flags in his contact quality metrics. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both well below league average and nearly half of his batted balls were put on the ground. That’s not a great combination and indicates he could struggle to find as many hits in his first full season in the big leagues. His plate discipline looks to be in good shape — critically important for a player who skipped Triple-A altogether — so there’s a solid foundation to build from, just don’t expect a repeat of his rookie success.

Jeremy Peña – Peña had an up-and-down rookie season that ended on one hell of a high note, earning MVP honors in the ALCS and the World Series. The problem for him is his plate discipline; he has an extremely aggressive approach at the plate. When he’s making contact regularly, he’s able to put together hot streaks like he had in the playoffs, but if he’s not seeing the ball as well, he’s racking up too many strikeouts to really be all that effective. It’s a profile reminiscent of peak Javier Báez. But where Báez had enough power to offset all those strikeouts, Peña hasn’t consistently shown that level of power yet.

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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The Middle Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Gianella

Strategy Section

• Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) Draft Order
  • Which draft slot is most similar to an auction?
  • General preferences for slot selection
  • 2023 preferences for slot selection
• Middle Infielders
  • The shortstop and second base player pools
    • SS – Deep
    • 2B – Wide Bottom
  • Do you need to draft stolen bases from the middle infield position?
  • Jon Berti
  • Adalberto Mondesi
  • Bounceback middle infield candidates

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Middle Infielders
  • Amed Rosario
  • Gleyber Torres
  • Jorge Polanco
  • Vaughn Grissom
  • Ketel Marte
  • Brendan Rodgers
  • Ezequiel Tovar
  • Luis Garcia
  • Nick Gordon

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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts!

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1/20/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

SS RANKINGS

• Trea Turner’s return to the NL East
• Bo Bichette’s speed drop-off
• The Fernando Tatis Jr. premium
• The run-scoring potential for Francisco Lindor
• It’ll be regression not the shift for Corey Seager’s AVG
• The volatility of Oneil Cruz
• New rules and Tommy Edman’s SBs
• Dansby Swanson in Chicago
• Petco’s impact on Xander Bogaerts
• The arrival of Wander Franco

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Notes on some select SS:

Trea Turner heads back to the NL East on the heels of his first 100+ R/RBI season – his 3rd of 100+ runs, 1st reaching 100+ RBIs (previous high of 77). There has been some concern around his spike in Chase rate (36% O-Swing; career 29% coming into ’22) and it might have played a role in his power drop as his .169 ISO was well below the .213 he had from 2019-21. It is worth monitoring. I’m more inclined to fade him to allow a transition year after inking the huge deal with Philadelphia as opposed to major concerns about the Chase spike.

Bo Bichette had just two months north of .743 OPS, but one of them was the incredible 1.105 in September with 7 HR which helped him secure the #4 spot at the position despite a 12-SB dip down to 13 with just a 62% success rate. The rule changes could fuel a bounce back into the 20s and if he regains the elite efficiency from 2021 (96%) or something close to it, he might chase down Turner for the top spot, especially if he can lead the American League in hits for a 3rd straight season.

On a per plate appearance basis, Fernando Tatis Jr. is tops. It’s the fact that I tabbed him for 530 PA that pushes him down to 3rd. He has just been so absurd across his 1175 MLB PA that it’s hard to find any flaw beyond the missed time – 21 games for sure due to suspension and the ever-present shoulder risk. If the remainder of the suspension is all he misses, he has a realistic shot at being the top overall player.

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We’ve covered the slow foots at catcher and first base while seeing how cold the hot corner has gone. Let’s now speed things up and move over to shortstop, which is sneakily shallow. Just not in the way you’re thinking.

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