It’s been just over four months since my last SP update so this was overdue. I’ll have an article and a podcast discussing these in more detail. For this piece, I’ll just have the rankings and then respond to your comments. Blue bar starts a new tier. Let me know what you think!
Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the catcher position for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry »
12/22/20
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Back in 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). The game theory methodology is now back for its third straight year.
This approach is not the standard projections comparison analysis that most others embark on. The typical comparison makes use of some type of statistical measure. The standard analysis involves calculating least square errors, performing chi-squared tests, or perhaps even hypothesis testing. My method does not use any of these capable methods.
On June 23, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred, Jr. announced that Major League Baseball would begin its 2020 regular season on July 23rd. It submitted a 60-game regular season schedule for review by the MLB Players Association. The proposed schedule featured divisional play, with the remaining games being played against their opposite league’s corresponding geographical division.
That 60-game proposal came to fruition. It was an unusual season to say the least. The St. Louis Cardinals did not play a game from July 30th through August 14th. Doubleheader games were all seven innings each, and extra innings started with a runner on 2nd base. The designated hitter was in effect for the National League, and so on, and so forth. In the end, the season came and went, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned as champions of the Fall Classic.
Now we are squarely in the midst of the baseball offseason. Most fantasy baseball players are on holiday from their annual game, eagerly awaiting one of the most important ingredients to their annual draft preparation …
Projections.
For many (including myself), player projections are the backbone that form the strategies and planning for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Understanding how player statistics are forecasted for the coming season is the essential part of fantasy preparation.
11/10/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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2021 2B Preview
Stars
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I’ve started my 2020 draft prep (i.e. writing player previews) and thought I had all the information I needed. I was missing some useful pitcher information, a pitcher’s high fastball rate and how often they are behind in the count. The two measures aren’t publicly available, but they are useful to help see why a pitcher’s overall profile is off. I’m going to rehash each stat and go over some leaders and laggards.
Being ahead or behind in the count means more than strikeouts and walks. In the original research article at BaseballHQ ($$), I found that pitchers who are consistently ahead in the count limit hard contact. The theory goes that if ahead in the count, all a pitcher’s pitches are can be thrown. If behind, the pitcher may only have one or two pitches he can throw over the plate for strikes and the batter can wait and crush them.
First, I found being ahead or behind is sticky from season to season (i.e. predictable). It has about the same year-to-year correlation as strikeouts and groundballs. The key threshold I found was being ahead 50% of the time more than being behind. On average, these pitchers post a lower than average home run rate and have an ERA lower than their FIP and xFIP. For those pitchers constantly behind, their production drop doesn’t warrant any action.
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10/13/20
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2021 SP DISCUSSION
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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.
All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.
First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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10/02/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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MY SP RANKS
Too high
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