Justin Mason Starting Pitcher Ranks: 3/16/21

by
March 16, 2021

Drafts are in full swing and now I am 15+ drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the starting pitcher position for 2021. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: C 1B 2B SS 3B OF SP RP

 

Justin Mason Starting Pitcher Ranks: 3/16/21
Rank Player Team ADP Previous
1 Jacob deGrom NYM 3.88 1
2 Gerrit Cole NYY 6.55 2
3 Shane Bieber CLE 9.02 3
4 Yu Darvish SD 17.00 4
5 Lucas Giolito CWS 16.50 5
6 Aaron Nola PHI 21.24 8
7 Brandon Woodruff MLW 29.21 10
8 Max Scherzer WAS 26.67 12
9 Walker Buehler LAD 20.98 6
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD 30.53 11
11 Trevor Bauer LAD 14.21 7
12 Luis Castillo CIN 24.97 9
13 Jack Flaherty STL 28.12 13
14 Zac Gallen ARZ 39.19 14
15 Kenta Maeda MIN 47.90 15
16 Lance Lynn CWS 51.14 16
17 Corbin Burnes MLW 56.48 18
18 Kyle Hendricks CHC 77.74 21
19 Blake Snell SD 43.62 19
20 Tyler Glasnow TB 46.83 20
21 Hyun Jin Ryu TOR 66.67 24
22 Max Fried ATL 75.81 23
23 Pablo Lopez MIA 124.33 32
24 Jose Berrios MIN 80.76 29
25 Patrick Corbin WAS 131.22 36
26 Frankie Montas OAK 160.17 37
27 Carlos Carrasco NYM 60.47 17
28 Chris Paddack SD 104.67 26
29 Zach Plesac CLE 72.47 25
30 Sonny Gray CIN 68.69 22
31 Ian Anderson ATL 104.03 27
32 Zack Wheeler PHI 97.48 28
33 Charlie Morton ATL 113.91 31
34 Joe Musgrove SD 114.91 35
35 Kevin Gausman SF 126.26 39
36 Jesus Luzardo OAK 94.66 40
37 Julio Urias LAD 124.67 30
38 Zack Greinke HOU 105.95 38
39 Dylan Bundy LAA 115.98 43
40 Stephen Strasburg WAS 66.48 34
41 Andrew Heaney LAA 208.24 41
42 Sandy Alcantara MIA 135.76 44
43 Sixto Sanchez MIA 127.60 42
44 Tyler Mahle CIN 162.10 45
45 Marco Gonzales SEA 175.84 46
46 Marcus Stroman NYM 209.86 47
47 Aaron Civale CLE 187.41 49
48 Zach Eflin PHI 172.24 73
49 Corey Kluber NYY 176.57 60
50 Ryan Yarbrough TB 235.71 66
51 Shohei Ohtani LAA 210.16 71
52 Jameson Taillon NYY 209.97 59
53 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 121.60 58
54 Triston McKenzie CLE 204.88 50
55 Jose Urquidy HOU 193.76 57
56 German Marquez COL 182.34 51
57 Chris Bassitt OAK 201.69 53
58 John Means BAL 211.28 54
59 Dinelson Lamet SD 102.41 55
60 Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 223.05 90
61 Mitch Keller PIT 322.29 69
62 Griffin Canning LAA 303.17 56
63 James Paxton SEA 234.41 61
64 David Price LAD 188.14 65
65 Matthew Boyd DET 303.72 68
66 Brady Singer KC 249.97 76
67 Dallas Keuchel CWS 212.14 77
68 Jordan Montgomery NYY 200.34 78
69 Zach Davies CHC 263.21 74
70 Dylan Cease CWS 334.10 107
71 Elieser Hernandez MIA 247.78 100
72 Drew Smyly ATL 216.14 70
73 Josh Lindblom MLW 305.91 116
74 Yusei Kikuchi SEA 294.72 80
75 Tony Gonsolin LAD 264.41 52
76 Mike Soroka ATL 184.86 62
77 Nate Pearson TOR 295.90 67
78 Nathan Eovaldi BOS 231.67 72
79 Cristian Javier HOU 222.17 75
80 Sean Manaea OAK 247.24 81
81 Mike Minor KC 295.69 130
82 Dane Dunning TEX 305.17 63
83 Spencer Turnbull DET 347.26 128
84 Michael Pineda MIN 239.93 102
85 Jake Odorizzi HOU 283.86 98
86 Kwang Hyun Kim STL 291.26 64
87 Taijuan Walker NYM 267.47 93
88 Garrett Richards BOS 389.88 84
89 Carlos Martinez STL 376.24 83
90 Brad Keller KC 320.10 104
91 Caleb Smith ARZ 336.38 86
92 Anthony DeSclafani SF 400.98 108
93 Alec Mills CHC 447.72 149
94 Adrian Houser MLW 452.50 119
95 Tejay Antone CIN 335.67 NR
96 Freddy Peralta MLW 314.41 142
97 Domingo German NYY 323.14 92
98 Merrill Kelly ARZ 463.19 95
99 Robbie Ray TOR 324.33 82
100 Adam Wainwright STL 372.21 89
101 Jon Gray COL 509.72 97
102 Cal Quantrill CLE 383.40 143
103 Dustin May LAD 224.03 48
104 Daniel Ponce de Leon STL 478.93 122
105 Framber Valdez HOU 160.59 33
106 Noah Syndergaard NYM 349.83 101
107 MacKenzie Gore SD 359.55 112
108 Chris Sale BOS 303.88 79
109 Luis Severino NYY 395.79 99
110 Spencer Howard PHI 387.72 94
111 Deivi Garcia NYY 359.79 85
112 Tarik Skubal DET 318.45 106
113 Casey Mize DET 395.72 118
114 Michael Kopech CWS 345.57 126
115 Luke Weaver ARZ 379.38 87
116 A.J. Puk OAK 399.86 88
117 J.A. Happ MIN 359.10 124
118 Adrian Morejon SD 506.74 113
119 Antonio Senzatela COL 560.24 103
120 Nick Pivetta BOS 467.45 NR
121 Keegan Akin BAL 518.88 105
122 Aaron Sanchez SF 497.84 NR
123 Ross Stripling TOR 472.57 115
124 Kohei Arihara TEX 496.22 NR
125 Justus Sheffield SEA 313.69 91
126 Dean Kremer BAL 517.86 NR
127 Chad Kuhl PIT 549.10 135
128 Brent Suter MLW 504.43 117
129 Rich Hill TB 420.07 120
130 Trevor Williams CHC 627.07 123
131 Madison Bumgarner ARZ 355.31 125
132 Kris Bubic KC 477.83 127
133 Garrett Crochet CWS 480.67 129
134 Kyle Freeland COL 572.48 132
135 Michael Lorenzen CIN 409.00 96
136 Logan Gilbert SEA 435.59 141
137 Danny Duffy KC 494.43 138
138 Johnny Cueto SF 500.10 147
139 Kyle Gibson TEX 531.16 134
140 Matt Shoemaker MIN 462.66 136
141 JT Brubaker PIT 447.09 133
142 Steven Brault PIT 493.76 131
143 Justin Dunn SEA 554.16 139
144 Jose Quintana LAA 416.78 150
145 Austin Gomber COL 543.47 NR
146 Logan Webb SF 596.98 NR
147 Martin Perez BOS 608.07 NR
148 Randy Dobnak MIN 530.24 121
149 Alex Cobb LAA 503.29 148
150 Tanner Houck BOS 441.69 111
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions leagues from the last month.





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

9 Comments
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drewsylvaniaMember since 2019
5 years ago

Thanks Justin!

For some reason, the hyperlinks above to C, 2B, and SP return 404 errors–the links themselves appear to be incorrect. Figured it’d help readership to get those fixed.

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
5 years ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

All links should be updated now.

1
Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
5 years ago

Why is the fantasy community so much higher on Maeda than the projection systems?

0
Justin MasonFanGraphs Staff
5 years ago
Reply to  Buhners Rocket Arm

Because projects rely too much on previous samples and cant account enough for good command guys like Maeda. This is why Hendricks always outperforms his projections.

0
Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
5 years ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

Seems reasonable, but Maeda’s rankings seem to assume a little bit too much ceiling for my taste. It’s not like his projections aren’t in line with his career numbers. If not for a .208 BABIP last year, where he made 9 of 11 starts against 4 of the worst lineups in the league, I don’t think we’d be talking about him as a SP2. I wish we could count on him getting to face Detroit and Cleveland for half of his games again.

1
jdr
5 years ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

You prob meant this under previous samples, but Maeda’s projections also have a bit of a hangover from his years with the Dodgers when he was getting moved around between the rotation and bullpen, which dragged his IP down. ZiPS for example has him projected for 135 IP. If he’s healthy this year he’s almost assuredly blowing way past that, so all the counting numbers he’s projected for rise.

1
msl216Member since 2020
5 years ago

Justin, if these rankings end up being more accurate than average, following them will win leagues. Montas, Heaney, Stroman, Hendricks, P Lopez, Yarbrough are all easily attainable at current ADPs.

Would be cool to see some type of confidence interval for the guys you have way above their draft spot. Appreciate what you do my guy

1
Fromage
5 years ago

Does Musgrove’s rank have the impact of a potential 6-man rotation baked in? In your opinion , how likely is it that SD will go 6-man? Context is weekly points league where 2 start weeks are king. Thank you!

0
brad.morgan2
5 years ago

damn bauer under kershaw is real disrespectful

0