Chad Young’s Ottoneu FanGraphs Points SS Ranks

I ranked my 2B first, before turning to SS, expecting that – as is usually the case for me – there would be a bunch of 2B/SS eligible players who ranked slightly higher as SS than they do as 2B. That turned out not to be the case. For the first time in a while, it feels like SS both stronger at the top and deeper than 2B. Gleyber Torres is my top 2B and my number seven SS. And this continues down the list – Brendan Rodgers is #20 at 2B, #24 at SS. Dylan Moore was #35 at 2B, #40 at SS.

Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | OF | SP

In the end, values weren’t impacted much – basically, my values for a guy at SS and a guy at 2B aren’t different. But in theory, it does suggest that if you have a 2B/SS eligible guy, you should prioritize playing him at 2B, as it will be easier to find a solid SS than a solid 2B.

And now, the latest installment of Chad’s ranking reminders:

  1. These are based on points leagues, but can roughly be used for 4×4.
  2. I use projected points/game as a starting point, but factor in playing time, future value, and my own adjustments to projections.
  3. These rankings are position-specific, though that doesn’t matter much here. Gleyber Torres is valued as a SS, not a 2B. But in general, any SS-eligible player’s value at SS will be higher than his value elsewhere, with the couple of SS/C eligibles the rare exception.
  4. The tiers below range up – so when you see Xander Bogaerts in the $20 tier, that means I might go to $21, $22, even $24 on him, but probably not $25.
  5. All tiers are pre-inflation.

Here they are – all the SS that matter and then some:

Chad Young’s Ottoneu FanGraphs Points SS Ranks
Tier Rank Player Eligibility P/G per Depth Charts Notes
$45 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 6.88 I wanted to find some cause for concern in his 2020, but it just isn’t there – he’s patient, makes contact, crushes the ball; if anything he might be due for an increase in his LD rate.
$45 2 Alex Bregman SS/3B 6.72 Even with the rough 2020, his projections are still head and shoulders better than the rest of the SS, non-Tatis division.
$35 3 Corey Seager SS 6.49 He’s been up and down but the talent has never been in doubt and he showed why in 2020.
$35 4 Trevor Story SS 6.47 He was more selective last year and it showed in his BB and K, but not the overall line.
$35 5 Manny Machado SS/3B 6.09 2020 may go down as his career year, but a career best chase rate and career best barrel rate may point towards real strides that can stick around.
$35 6 Trea Turner SS 6.27 Because everyone is so aware that his speed doesn’t matter a ton in Ottoneu, he sometimes gets overlooked, but Turner is a top tier SS in this format.
$30 7 Gleyber Torres 2B/SS 6.34 The combination of pedigree and projections is hard for me to overlook – and the projections are better than Turner or Machado.
$30 8 Francisco Lindor SS 5.85 He’s not the only guy to admit he struggled to put forth full effort in 2020, and I suspect he won’t be the only guy to return to form in 2021.
$25 9 Bo Bichette SS 5.94 On the one hand, he chases a lot and doesn’t walk much; on the other he is still only 22 and what if he starts to walk more?!
$20 10 Carlos Correa SS 5.87 Speaking of guys who came up young, he’s only 26 and has had two seasons of wOBA .380 or better; there is an MVP candidate in here.
$20 11 Xander Bogaerts SS 6.22 He was safely in the top ten before his shoulder MRI, and a clean bill of health probably bumps him back up to 8 or so, but right now, I’ll be a little cautious.
$15 12 Ketel Marte 2B/SS/OF 5.79 If you took out his 2019, he’d look an awful lot like a steady .320-.330 wOBA guy, but the projections weigh 2019 meaningfully and I am trusting them here.
$15 13 Tim Anderson SS 5.32 So far he looks like a guy whose wOBA will follow his BABIP, but he was also on a 30 HR pace last year, so he could make a leap.
$15 14 Javier Baez SS 5.32 It probably looks like I am the low man on Baez, but this is where his projected P/G puts him, and that plate discipline means there is a low floor.
$10 15 Wander Samuel Franco SS 4.15 This might be aggressive but I think he has the Rays SS job by mid-season and that coupled with his long-term value pushes him way up.
$10 16 Didi Gregorius SS 5.25 Injuries killed his 2019, but if you give him a pass on that year as a result, his 2018 and 2020 are enough to move him far up this list.
$10 17 Marcus Semien SS 5.26 A little like Ketel Marte, in that 2019 looks like an outlier, but he was much better in 2020 than he appeared, due to an awful first couple weeks.
$10 18 Paul Dejong SS 5.06 He’s incredibly reliant on his power, and his 2020 showed it – the HR/FB rate dropped and his line cratered, despite a .340 BABIP.
$5 19 Dansby Swanson SS 4.90 His wOBA has gone up four straight years, driven by improvements in contact quality – EV, Max EV, LA, Barrel% and Hard Hit% have all trended up during that time.
$5 20 Gavin Lux 2B/SS 5.06 This is all about opportunity – the ceiling is high and the long-term value could be huge, if he gets and holds the job.
$5 21 Jorge Polanco SS 5.15 The projections for him look reaonable to me, and you could make a case he belongs a few spots higher as a result.
$5 22 Willy Adames SS 4.65 Looking at a rolling 15-game wOBA for Adames, his 2020 looks more like his 2018-19 than a true breakout.
$5 23 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS/SP 4.73 There is a LOT of red on those Statcast sliders which is a pretty good sign that he hits the ball hard and well.
$5 24 Brendan Rodgers 2B/SS 4.90 Yes, he’s been bad in Colorado, but it is 102 PA and he’s only 24 – there’s still an elite prospect in a great hitters park waiting to emerge.
$5 25 Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF 5.07 As he slips back towards his (still-very-good) 2018 and 2019 numbers, he’ll lose playing time and settle into a super utility role.
$5 26 Marco Luciano SS #N/A Future value grades of 60 on his hit tool and 70 on his game power? Yeah, there is some upside here.
$5 27 CJ Abrams SS #N/A The good thing is, he’s still young so he’ll only be 34 when Tatis finally makes room for him at SS.
$1 28 Willi Castro SS/3B 4.94 I was skeptical coming out of 2020, but his hot start to spring training is going to start driving up expectations.
$1 29 Carter Kieboom 2B/SS/3B 4.65 Like Rodgers, but 165 MLB PA and a less friendly park.
$1 30 Scott Kingery 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.08 He made solid strides in 2019 and COVID seemed to hit him hard in 2020, but he still posted a career high barrel rate.
$1 31 Oneil Cruz SS #N/A Imgaine Aaron Judge playing a competent SS and there is a lot to dream on here.
$1 32 Jose Iglesias SS 4.63 Going back to 2015, his wOBA has closely followed his BABIP and 2020 was no different. The regression monster lurks.
$1 33 Nick Ahmed SS 4.60 His glove will keep him on the field, which means at least you can rely on him for PA, I guess?
$1 34 Jordan Groshans SS #N/A Not sure he can stick at SS, but there’s a fun bat here with a lot of upside.
$1 35 Donovan Solano 2B/SS/3B 4.38 He has two straight years of surprisingly good wOBA and two straight years of shockingly high BABIP and I wouldn’t bet on him continuing the latter so I won’t bet on the former, either.
$1 36 Jean Segura 2B/SS/3B 4.89 You can rely on him for decent numbers and usually plenty of PA, but things are getting crowded in Philly.
$1 37 Andrelton Simmons SS 4.53 Is defense a category?
$1 38 Miguel Rojas SS 4.52 I have no idea how to explain his 2020 numbers but I don’t love 4 HR vs. 1 barrel as an indicator going forward.
$1 39 Royce Lewis SS #N/A I’d like to see more game power show up before getting too excited.
$1 40 Dylan Moore 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.24 Plate discipline issues mean the floor is low, but the Statcast data is loud.
$1 41 Bobby Witt Jr. SS #N/A I love the upside but he is far away and we have barely seen him.
$1 42 Jeter Downs SS 3.57 I don’t see a standout tool when I read reports, but the bat is strong across the board and should play up the middle.
$1 43 Nico Hoerner 2B/SS/3B 4.50 I think the OBP and AVG will come around, but without power, he won’t be all that useful in Ottoneu.
$1 44 Vidal Brujan 2B/SS #N/A Scouts think he can grow into some power and if he does, that changes things quite a bit.
$1 45 Jazz Chisholm 2B/SS 3.72 I don’t think he has enough to overcome the strikeouts.
$1 46 Andres Gimenez 2B/SS/3B 4.38 Your classic “better MLB player than he is a fantasy player.”
$1 47 David Fletcher 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.47 High OBP helps him stay relevant.
$1 48 Garrett Hampson 2B/SS/OF 4.50 There’s still enough upside and that nice park, that I can understand wanting to roster him.
$0 49 J.P. Crawford SS 4.40 With a nice drop in K% and a jump in his Max EV, you can start to see signs of a breakout, but it’s not there yet.
$0 50 Enrique Hernandez 2B/SS/OF 4.94 If you hide him against RHP he can put up solid numbers, but small side platoon guys just aren’t that valuable unless they are elite.
$0 51 Ronny Mauricio SS #N/A Tools without production and I am just not that interested in that with my limited roster space.
$0 52 Noelvi Marte SS #N/A So far away and may not stick at SS so it’s hard to get too excited, yet.
$0 53 Tyler Freeman SS #N/A Unless Cleveland can find more of the magic the used to turn Jose Ramirez into an MVP candidate, Freeman will be a very solid player with limited fantasy value.
$0 54 Geraldo Perdomo SS #N/A Like some of the names above him, he has a future as a solid MLB SS who is a borderline guy for Ottoneu rosters.
$0 55 Orelvis Martinez SS #N/A See Marte, Noelvi.
$0 56 Luis Garcia 2B/SS 4.06 The 2020 debut was actually pretty good for a 20-year-old, but I don’t see enough HR or enough OBP to carry him in Ottoneu.
$0 57 Isaac Paredes SS/3B 4.38 The production looks good, but he belongs on watchlists rather than rosters for now.
$0 58 Adalberto Mondesi SS 4.98 Depth Charts has him at 54 SB and 15 CS which is 60 total points over the season and that is the best part of what he brings.
$0 59 Jon Berti 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.38 Qualifying all over the diamond is interesting, but the projections are not good enough and I don’t see long-term upside.
$0 60 Jose Garcia SS 3.47 All of Joey Gallo’s strikeouts with all of Leury Garcia’s HR.
$0 61 Amed Rosario SS 4.92 He has back-of-the-roster upside, and may end up eligible at 2B/SS/OF.
$0 62 Brice Turang 2B/SS #N/A I just don’t see a fantasy bat that I should be excited about, except in 5×5.
$0 63 Xavier Edwards 2B/SS #N/A I just don’t see a fantasy bat that I should be excited about, except in 5×5.
$0 64 Tommy Edman 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.56 I just don’t see a fantasy bat that I should be excited about, except in 5×5.
$0 65 Orlando Arcia SS 4.32 I just don’t see a fantasy bat that I should be excited about.
$0 66 Brandon Crawford SS 4.19 He’s flashed some upside at times, but those times have passed.
$0 67 Joey Wendle 2B/SS/3B 4.30 Here’s a fun game – Which Ray is on borrowed time just waiting for Wander to discplace him?
$0 68 Nick Gordon 2B/SS #N/A I just don’t see a fantasy bat that I should be excited about, except in 5×5.
$0 69 Myles Straw SS/OF 3.91 Don’t think he has the bat to keep the job or to matter in Ottoneu even if he does keep the job.
$0 70 Luis Urias 2B/SS/3B 4.54 A rare case where I am breaking from the projections – I just don’t see it happening for Urias and I am done.
$0 71 Elvis Andrus SS 4.15 He wasn’t that useful when he played in a great park in Texas for most of his career.
$0 72 Kyle Farmer C/1B/2B/SS/3B 3.79 A C who might get 150+ starts is useful, but a SS who gets 150+ starts still has to hit.

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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3 years ago

It seems like you’re trusting Ketel Marte’s 2019 in these rankings more than in the 2B rankings. Am I understanding correctly?