Chad Young’s Ottoneu Points 1B Ranks

by
February 15, 2021

We started this series last week with catchers and you can go there to see the basic methodology and some notes on how I am handling these rankings. First base, as always, is a position where there is a ton of production available. In Ottoneu, it is also a position where a lot of players qualify. As a result, the table for 1B is pretty long – 89 players, though the majority aren’t interesting 1B options.

Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 2B | SS | 3B | OF| SP

A few reminders from the intro to the C piece, plus two pieces of clarifying info. The clarification first – the tiers below can be read as saying that I would comfortably pay that price for that player and go up towards the next tier. For the $25 guys, the “next tier” isn’t really visible but it is around $30 – I would happily pay $27, $28, $29 for Rhys Hoskins. For the $1 guys, the tier is saying they are worth rostering, but if you want to go to $3 or $4 for them, that is fine. The reason for this is that prices based on projected performance are pretty inexact and have significant error bars, so I am trying to give you a starting point. How far over you want to go is up to you.

Those tiers are also pre-inflation. Inflation in any keeper format is the increase in price you have to expect due to the best values being kept, freeing up more money to spend on free agents at auction. If your league is a couple of years old and inflation is starting build, those prices will look more like floors. I comfortably kept a $53 Freddie Freeman in one league, for example.

The reminders:

  1. These are based on points leagues, but can roughly be used for 4×4
  2. I use projected points/game as a starting point, but factor in playing time, future value, and my own adjustments to projections
  3. These rankings are position-specific – when I say that Jake Cronenworth is a $0 player, that doesn’t mean you can’t roster him, it just means I don’t think he has value as a first basemen

With that, here are more 1B than anyone should reasonably choose to rank:

Chad Young’s Ottoneu FanGraphs Points 1B Ranks
Tier Rank True 1B Rank Player Eligibility P/G per Depth Charts Notes
$45 1 1 Freddie Freeman 1B 7.01 In a position that used to be loaded with $50 bats, Freeman might be the only one I would cross that threshold for.
$45 2 2 Cody Bellinger 1B/OF 7.13 If you want to argue for Bellinger over Freeman, I won’t stop you, but I think the floor is lower.
$25 3 3 Rhys Hoskins 1B 6.06 I’m assuming a near full season from an OBP machine with big power who is a great fit for the format.
$25 4 4 Pete Alonso 1B 6.25 I surprised myself putitng him this high, but the ceiling is huge.
$25 5 5 Matt Olson 1B 6.03 He chased less last year and struck out more due to a drop in contact, but I think that corrects and Olson shows he has another level.
$25 6 6 Luke Voit 1B 6.05 The plantar fasciitis is the one risk, but he has a perfect swing for his park and I expect big things.
$25 7 7 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/3B 6.22 Made real progress – fewer K’s, better contact – in year 2 and he still isn’t 22 years old.
$20 8 8 Anthony Rizzo 1B 6.17 Honestly, this is probably selling him short and he could easily be above Hoskins if he fully returns to form.
$20 9 9 Miguel Sano 1B/3B 6.06 The strikeouts both lower the ceiling and raise the risk, but the bat will play.
$20 10 Dominic Smith 1B/OF 5.34 I have a reputation as Dom Smith’s official hype man to uphold, but he’s earned this.
$20 11 10 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 5.82 Career best plate discipline in 2020 drove his return to form and I don’t think he is done.
$15 12 Max Muncy 1B/2B/3B 5.87 Just ignore the 2020 line with the .203 BABIP and be glad you can add him to play 2B and then keep him to be your 1B next year.
$15 13 11 Josh Bell 1B 5.76 New digs will help a guy whose bat is too good to stay down and who won’t miss playing in Pittsburgh – career 103 wRC+ at home, 123 on the road.
$15 14 12 Jose Abreu 1B 5.86 2020 will be the high water mark for the second best Jose to play CI in the AL Central.
$15 15 DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B 5.60 2021 will probably be his worst year with the Yankees, and that is still really, really good.
$10 16 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 5.68 Even without the 2020 BABIP, he has great on-base skills and more raw power he can tap into.
$10 17 13 Andrew Vaughn 1B 3.79 Given the lack of experience above A-ball, he may have a rough start, but he’ll be the first White Sox on this list next year.
$10 18 14 Spencer Torkelson 1B #N/A If I thought he was going to play most of this year in Detroit, he would be at least one and maybe 3-4 spots higher.
$10 19 Joc Pederson 1B/OF 5.87 Excited to see what he can do against LHP for the Cubs, but don’t forget that you don’t have to play him just because they do.
$10 20 Trey Mancini 1B/OF 5.61 His 2019 was the 31st best wOBA in all of baseball and looked legit.
$5 21 15 Rowdy Tellez 1B 5.69 He could be higher on this list, but I think he might be on a short leash – Toronto wants to win and has options.
$5 22 Brandon Lowe 1B/2B/OF 5.44 There was reason to worry his 2019 BABIP would drop in 2020. It did, a lot, and his performance only improved.
$5 23 Mark Canha 1B/OF 5.36 Since the start of 2019, he is tied for 18th in MLB with a .374 wOBA, yet no one talks about him along side Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon or Trea Turner.
$5 24 16 Nate Lowe 1B 5.62 If he strikes out like he did in the minors, he’ll shoot up this list; if he strikes out like he has in the majors…
$5 25 Wil Myers 1B/OF 5.38 A swing adjustment led to a big breakout and while I doubt he touches a .400 wOBA again, I doubt he touches .330 again either.
$5 26 17 Jared Walsh 1B/RP 5.24 My favorite of the lotto-ticket 1B. There is good reason to think the breakout was legit and the Angels seem set to let him prove it.
$5 27 Mike Moustakas 1B/2B/3B 5.70 He’s been steady since about 2015 and I suspect that continues.
$5 28 Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF #N/A His profile is a perfect fit for Ottoneu – get on base and hit for power. He just needs a clear path to a job.
$5 29 Brandon Belt 1B/OF 5.42 The long-predicted breakout for Belt finally showed up last year, but don’t let that hide the fact that he has been better than people think for his whole career.
$5 30 Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF 5.47 He looks like Belt, to me – consistently good, always worse than people hope but better than they think.
$5 31 18 Joey Votto 1B 5.21 Votto made an adjustment last year and then over the last month of the season posted an ISO higher than any previous season.
$5 32 19 Christian Walker 1B 5.32 He seems like a young guy ready to break out, but he will be 30 before Opening Day and I kinda think he is what he is.
$5 33 20 Eric Hosmer 1B 4.91 You know how he always just beats the ball into the ground, even when he hits it hard? He posted a career high launch angle last year.
$5 34 Hunter Dozier 1B/3B/OF 5.15 The power won’t be as big as 2019, but it won’t be as low as 2020 either.
$5 35 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 5.27 I’m dubious, but the breakout was fun and the jumps in BABIP and HR/FB rate were matched by a jump in hard hit rate and barrel rate.
$1 36 21 Carlos Santana 1B 5.48 Santana has spent a decade being a great fit for Ottoneu, but two of the last three years were not good and we may be nearing the end.
$1 37 Edwin Rios 1B/3B 4.67 One of the more volatile players on this list – breakout potential is huge, but the Dodgers could also re-sign Turner and relegate him to the bench tomorrow.
$1 38 Yasmani Grandal C/1B 4.96 Grandal is still a top-tier C but probably not a guy you want to play at 1B often, if at all.
$1 39 Bobby Dalbec 1B/3B 5.02 Like Walsh, the breakout was fun and he’s getting a chance to back it up. Unlike Walsh, K’s are a big glaring warning light.
$1 40 Travis d’Arnaud C/1B 4.70 Like Grandal, but not as good.
$1 41 Christian Vazquez C/1B 4.28 Like d’Arnaud, but not as good.
$1 42 Austin Nola C/1B/2B 4.13 Like Vazquez, but not as good.
$1 43 22 C.J. Cron 1B 5.52 He needs a job, but if he gets one he’ll be – again – an overlooked but solid 1B option.
$1 44 23 Triston Casas 1B 4.08 Alt Site All Star will get his shot if Dalbec can’t control the strikeouts.
$1 45 Seth Beer 1B/OF #N/A Has put up some fun numbers in the minors, but may be waiting on the NL DH in 2022.
$1 46 Willians Astudillo C/1B/3B 5.08 The Twins lineup is just too long for him to get much of a chance to prove he make contact with literally any pitch ever.
$1 47 24 Ji-Man Choi 1B 5.27 He’s a platoon guy, the problem is in 2020 he wasn’t even that great a platoon guy for a 1B.
$1 48 Austin Slater 1B/OF 5.07 The overall projections understate what he can do if you use him only against LHP.
$1 49 Tommy La Stella 1B/2B/3B 5.17 The contact isn’t particularly loud, but when you walk as much as you strikeout, it doesn’t have to be.
$1 50 Ty France 1B/2B/3B 4.91 A full season of PA will be a make-or-break year for France.
$1 51 Garrett Cooper 1B/OF 4.99 In my head, he’s a small side platoon bat who crushes lefties; for his career he has a .338 wOBA vs LHP and .339 vs. RHP, which makes him a tough play at 1B in fantasy.
$1 52 Colin Moran 1B/2B/3B 5.00 He’s probably not a guy you want at 1B, even if 2020 was legit.
$1 54 Yandy Diaz 1B/3B 4.96 Draft him for the hard contact; cut him for the groundball onslaught.
$1 54 25 Jesus Aguilar 1B 5.10 He is what I thought Garrett Cooper was, but a little riskier I think
$0 55 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS/SP 4.82 He showed he can sting the ball, but the Padres seem to be burying him.
$0 56 Yuli Gurriel 1B/3B 4.90 He came to MLB so late that the peak was brief and he’s off my 1B radar now.
$0 57 26 Lewin Diaz 1B 3.67 He has an uphill battle get PA and while he is semi-interesting, not sure he is worth the wait.
$0 58 27 Daniel Vogelbach 1B 5.55 He can take a walk, but doesn’t tap into his power enough and may need universal DH to get PA.
$0 59 Ryan McMahon 1B/2B/3B 5.21 Even at home, this bat doesn’t play at 1B
$0 60 Seth Brown 1B/OF 3.82 The projections are way down on this guy, and I can’t get myself excited enough to override them.
$0 61 28 Evan White 1B 4.08 The Mariners seem to believe in him, but last year was just so ugly. He needs to fix the Ks.
$0 62 29 Miguel Cabrera 1B 5.05 I keep wanting to see a Miggy resurgance, but I don’t think it is coming.
$0 63 Zack Collins C/1B 3.97 Baseball is a cruel sport at times, and it looks a bit like Collins had his chance and lost it.
$0 64 30 Albert Pujols 1B 4.25 The biggest fantasy impact Pujols can have this year is if he keeps Walsh and Ohtani from getting PA.
$0 65 Victor Caratini C/1B 4.14 He’s really only there to catch Darvish and with Campusano coming he may not last long.
$0 66 Wilmer Flores 1B/2B 5.34 He’s useful in a platoon role, but it’s the small side and it’s not enough to justify a 1B spot.
$0 67 Asdrubal Cabrera 1B/2B/3B 5.09 He’s been better than you think for a long time, but he plays 1B out of necessity, not because his bat plays there.
$0 68 Mike Brosseau 1B/2B/3B/OF 5.04 I’d potentially rank him higher if he had a more certain role, but even with regular PA, his value as a 1B is limited.
$0 69 31 Mike Ford 1B 5.12 Remember way back when I mentioned Voit’s plantar fasciitis? That’s his path to playing time.
$0 70 Rio Ruiz 1B/3B 4.63 He’ll play regularly but he won’t do enough to help you at 1B.
$0 71 Michael Chavis 1B/2B/OF 4.71 Played his way out of a role with Boston last year, but worth watching if he starts to play his way back in.
$0 72 Jose Marmolejos 1B/OF 4.17 There’s some power in the bat, but not enough to hold up your fantasy needs.
$0 73 Renato Nunez 1B/3B 5.28 He’s higher if he gets a full time role with Detroit, but I am not at all confident that happens.
$0 74 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 4.84 He’s out of options and so Cleveland will likely give him his final shot this year, but they didn’t trust him enough to use him even once last year.
$0 75 Matt Beaty 1B/3B/OF 4.67 For a bit there, he looked he might be the new Max Muncy, but he’s not.
$0 76 32 Ryan Zimmerman 1B 5.09 He’s a Nationals legend and that will get him some PA. He might even have something left in the bat, but he’s likely in a bench role.
$0 77 Ryan McBroom 1B/OF 4.50 I want Ryan McBroom to become a one-dimensional power hitter so I can call him McBoom.
$0 78 33 Ryan O’Hearn 1B 4.75 His projection is higher than his fellow KC Ryan, but his performance has been worse.
$0 79 Kyle Farmer C/1B/2B/SS/3B 3.81 He only gets to be on this list because he has a job, for now.
$0 80 Jake Lamb 1B/3B 4.73 Once he got regular playing time with Oakland last year, he was quite good. But he needs a job.
$0 81 34 Bobby Bradley 1B 4.77 The power is legit when he makes contact. Could still play his way into a bigger role with Cleveland, but not unless he makes that big contact a lot more often.
$0 82 Niko Goodrum 1B/2B/SS/OF 4.29 Goodrum is a really solid utility guy the Tigers have asked to do more, but he may be stepping back a bit into that role, which will eat into his fantasy value.
$0 83 Jay Bruce 1B/OF 5.16 He seems like he is done, but he seemed like he was done before and then 2016-17 happened, so I guess we’ll see if he gets a job.
$0 84 Travis Shaw 1B/3B 4.96 I always have a soft spot for Shaw, but until he lands a job, I can’t start getting irrationally excited about his potential to rebound.
$0 85 Aledmys Diaz 1B/2B/3B 4.86 Utility infielders rarely make good fantasy 1B.
$0 86 35 Edwin Encarnacion 1B 4.90 He wants to make a run at 500 HR but that is 2+ good years away and I don’t think he has nearly that left in the bat.
$0 87 Marwin Gonzalez 1B/2B/3B/OF 4.70 Utility infielders rarely make good fantasy 1B.
$0 88 36 Ronald Guzman 1B 4.65 He has shown promise at times, but the Rangers went after Nate Lowe for a reason.
$0 89 Pat Valaika 1B/2B/SS 4.62 Utility infielders rarely make good fantasy 1B.





 

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

14 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
sphenreckson
3 years ago

You said Cron needs a job: well, he signed in Colorado, and I can’t see anyone blocking him on that roster…

0
Chad Youngmember
3 years ago
Reply to  sphenreckson

Things I wish I knew when I was finishing this up last night! If Cron wins that job (and I agree he looks like a good bet), he immediately jumps to top 20 overall, top 15 among actual 1B

0
NoHayBanda
3 years ago
Reply to  sphenreckson

You can trust the Rockies to do the wrong thing.

2