Justin Mason First Base Ranks: 3/11/21
Drafts are in full swing and now I am 15+ drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2021. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
See my other ranks here: C 1B 2B SS 3B OF SP RP
Justin Mason First Base Ranks: 3/11/21
| Rk | Player | Team | Position(s) | ADP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 14 | Even COVID couldn’t slow him down. |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 1B, OF | 18.08 | There are questions about his shoulder, but if healthy he could be a steal. |
| 3 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 34.18 | Landing back in New York was the best case scenario. |
| 4 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 1B | 43.86 | The MVP is about as safe as you get. |
| 5 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 60.71 | Last year he was overrated, this year he is underrated. |
| 6 | Luke Voit | NYY | 1B | 69.76 | Health is the only concern, but if he stays on the field, he is a monster. |
| 7 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 53.53 | Best shape of his life pics are getting people overly excited. |
| 8 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B, 3B | 103.08 | Playoff performance makes me feel better about the disappointing 2020. |
| 9 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 1B, 3B | 113.04 | Perfect mix of upside and safe floor. |
| 10 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC | 1B | 104.71 | safe, unsexy player that just produces. |
| 11 | Matt Olson | OAK | 1B | 95.82 | A ton of power, but that batting average has a ton of risk. |
| 12 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 97.69 | No longer a stud, but a pretty safe floor. |
| 13 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 1B, 2B | 121.45 | Moose should bounceback after a weird and disappointing 2020. |
| 14 | Josh Bell | WAS | 1B | 146.14 | Change of scenery is just what he needed. |
| 15 | Eric Hosmer | SD | 1B | 142.24 | I actually buy a lot of the changes Hosmer made. |
| 16 | C.J. Cron | COL | 1B | 235.14 | Move to Colorado has his skyrocketing up the ADP |
| 17 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 173.18 | If he is ready to go to start the season, he will move up a lot. |
| 18 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 203.29 | Walker is an underrated asset. |
| 19 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B, OF | 185.67 | Hard to gauge after missing 2020 with cancer, but if he is the guy we saw in 2019, then he could be a steal. |
| 20 | Dominic Smith | NYM | 1B, OF | 141.71 | Concerns about playing time has me starting to fade him until we know there is a DH in the NL. |
| 21 | Miguel Sano | MIN | 1B | 191.33 | Got to offset the average issues, but he is a power monster. |
| 22 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | 254.71 | I don’t think the 2019 power is coming back, but I believe he will bounceback otherwise. |
| 23 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B, OF | 172.55 | Mountcastle has hit at every stop. |
| 24 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 318.65 | Bounced back in 2020, but I don’t think we ever see vintage Votto again. |
| 25 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 208.63 | Starting to worry a bit about playing time. |
| 26 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 1B, OF | 239.29 | I wonder if getting COVID was part of the reason he struggled in 2020. |
| 27 | Carlos Santana | KC | 1B | 268.22 | Is an accumulator that will play everyday. |
| 28 | Rowdy Tellez | TOR | 1B | 288.43 | Playing time is becoming an issue with all the talent they have. |
| 29 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 308.94 | He’s Sano like. |
| 30 | Jesus Aguilar | MIA | 1B | 326.24 | An underrated player you can get late. |
| 31 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B, 2B, 3B | 220.33 | Swing change has me bought back in again. |
| 32 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 1B | 279.14 | I think he is up somewhat quickly. |
| 33 | Nate Lowe | TEX | 1B | 326.88 | The #FreeNateLowe crowd may get disappointed if he can’t close the holes in his swing. |
| 34 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 227.29 | Until we know the DH is coming, he doesn’t have a place to play regularly. |
| 35 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 1B, 3B | 263.29 | Going to hit fifth and should accumlate a decent enough stats to be usable. |
| 36 | Tommy La Stella | SF | 1B, 2B | 316.33 | Might lead off in SF. |
| 37 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | 354.96 | Debut was disappointing, but we shouldn’t write him off. |
| 38 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B | 379.59 | Playing time is an issue unless the DH comes. |
| 39 | Colin Moran | PIT | 1B | 390.12 | Will play everyday in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean a lot. |
| 40 | Garrett Cooper | MIA | 1B | 432.37 | Probably not an everyday player. |
| 41 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B | 351.37 | May not be ready for Opening Day. |
| 42 | Josh Fuentes | COL | 1B | 504.69 | Penciled in as the first baseman, but I doubt he is an everyday player. |
| 43 | Ji-Man Choi | TB | 1B | 487.65 | Strong side platoon player the Rays seem to love. |
| 44 | Renato Nunez | DET | 1B | 363.92 | Like Cron, he needs to find a job. Could head overseas. |
| 45 | Mitch Moreland | OAK | 1B | 447.9 | Moreland will land somewhere, but playing time will always be an issue. |
| 46 | Mike Brosseau | TB | 1B, 2B, 3B | 423.57 | Shortside platoon guy best for DFS. |
| 47 | Albert Pujols | LAA | 1B | 616.76 | Curtain call time. |
| 48 | Seth Brown | OAK | 1B | 662.61 | Could have some playing time with Krush gone. |
| 49 | Seth Beer | ARZ | 1B | 707.8 | Needs the DH in the NL more than any other player in baseball, but dude can mash. |
| 50 | Todd Frazier | FA | 1B, 3B | 644.33 | Frazier would play more if there was a DH in the NL. |
ADP is from NFBC draft champions leagues over the last month
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
CJ Cron has a job
And has had one for a month. Does he move up in the rankings?
I forgot to update his note. This rank reflects his signing
MLB also announced a while back no DH in the NL
I still believe there’s a chance the DH happens in the NL.
Also Todd Frazier is on PIT now
Thanks Justin!
Hi Justin–the catchers link is missing https://fantasy.fangraphs.com in the URL, which is causing the link to be unreachable.
Reading a lot about Bell this offseason and I think I’m starting buy the “3 good months in his career” narrative. It’s not a totally accurate statement but if I’m counting right, he’s had 4 months with an OPS over .900 in 23 months in the majors (I tossed out July 2016 when he was called up as it was only 4 PA)
Also, as Jeff Zimmerman noted in one of his columns – the projections on Seth Brown are a bit mystifying. All he’s done is hit at every level, including the majors. With the MOreland signing he doesn’t have a position (or probably even a roster spot) and he is clearly undraftable in most formats, but a good guy to keep an eye on if there are some injuries in Oakland
What makes Olson any more of a risk than Muncy? Both seem like .240-.260 guys with weak 2020’s. Olson’s whiff and k rate were higher, but his career numbers suggest he’s closer to a 25% guy than the 32% he showed last year.
He has superior power and still hits the ball really hard. Thank you
Seems like Justin Mason probably prefers Muncy due to his playoff performance reducing concerns (as he noted).
Also, the various projections do seem to favor Muncy a bit more than Olson, if not by that much. Plus much of Muncy’s sub-par 2020 is likely due to him playing w/ a fractured ring finger throughout most of shortened season — not sure why this wasn’t mentioned, but most/all the projections probably also didn’t account for that…
And the multi-position eligibility is also a nice bonus me thinks…
I disagree that the projections favor Muncy. They’re pretty close by THE BAT, but Steamer, ZiPS, and Depth Charts all favor Olson by a good margin.
FanGraphs’ Depth Charts has Olson hitting .239/40 HR/107 RBI/86 R/2 SB.
Muncy is projected for .239/29 HR/90 RBI/83 R/4 SB .
Maybe Olson is a greater risk to hit sub-.200. But they both did that in the shortened season, and Olson has more power — though maybe not much more if you expect Muncy’s power numbers to be closer to his 2019 and 2018 totals than his projections.
I personally think Muncy should be going 30+ picks later than he is based on his projections A .240 average is a lot harder to carry with no elite counting stats to offset it.
> Maybe Olson is a greater risk to hit sub-.200.
“(hitting) .406 with five homers, four doubles and 14 RBIs. His nine extra-base hits leads all Major League hitters this spring.” -Martin Gallegos, MLB.com
Muncy is batting .200 with 1HR, and has only played 1B this spring.
Hey Justin – any thoughts on Ronald Guzman this year? Seems to be “trying” now apparently. And Texas has him playing some OF this Spring – do you see any upside there?
Let’s be honest, what part of Anthony Rizzo is not sexy? Walks? Sexy. Homers? Sexy. Dobles? Muy Sexy. Borrowing a term from my dad, he also is built like a brick sh!thouse. In conclusion, Tony Rizzo is sexy AF and somebody owes him an apology!