Paul Sporer’s Top 50 First Basemen
I didn’t even realize that Justin was doing his list today, but I love that we had this align so nicely. It’s a happy accident that is going to foster something of a rankings week, at least for the infield as we’ll have our 2B/3B/SS rankings out this week, too!
Here’s my list. I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 1B plan? do you want 3 1B for 1B/CI/UT? who is your sleeper at the position?
2021 1B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER | TM | ELIG. | COMMENT | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 8-yr avg: .302/.394/.526; 110+ R/RBI per 162 gms since 2018 | 12 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 1B, OF | 60-gm yr looked a lot like 2018, but he’s at 40 HR/15 SB per 162 gms in his career | 15 |
| 3 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | Elite work w/NYY looks remarkably stable as skills, park, and lineup are a perfect match | 30 |
| 4 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B, 3B | Was essentially himself save a .203 BABIP that ate up a bunch of hits; still triple elig., too | 94 |
| 5 | Luke Voit | NYY | 1B | Top 4 in HR, RBI, R per 600 PA among 1B since ’18; with health he could reach 50 HRs | 62 |
| 6 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | Basically Voit with a bit less AVG (though also 4 yrs younger… it’s a coinflip between ’em) | 57 |
| 7 | José Abreu | CWS | 1B | Damn fine player deserved his MVP, but I’m not overrating 2 mos. for a 34-year old | 36 |
| 8 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | Solid workhorse has six straight full seasons (90%+ of potential gms); SBs are about gone | 100 |
| 9 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC | 1B | Nothing in profile says .222 AVG would’ve lasted in 6 mo. season, so why worry about it? | 100 |
| 10 | Matt Olson | OAK | 1B | AVG tank feels mostly BABIP-related; put him down for .245 AVG/40 HR & go from there | 90 |
| 11 | Dominic Smith | NYM | 1B, OF | NYM prefers a DH role for him, but bat is too good to sit even if it means primary LF | 107 |
| 12 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 1B, 3B | Tasty little debut (139 wRC+) might push him in drafts; I’ll take anything past pick 100 | 105 |
| 13 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 1B, 2B | Best used at 2B, though he’s a perfectly capable .250/30 bat to slot into 1B if you have to | 123 |
| 14 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | Not out on potential studification, but why buy this high on pure spec at a position like 1B? | 56 |
| 15 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | Swing changes finally brought some of his MiLB shine to MLB & I’m a believer | 198 |
| 16 | Miguel Sanó | MIN | 1B | Plan for an awful AVG but he hits hard enough to spike a decent one at times; enjoy the HRs | 192 |
| 17 | Jesús Aguilar | MIA | 1B | No, ’18 isn’t coming back, but got back on track in late ’19 & had a solid ’20; sneaky AVG asset | 311 |
| 18 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | Oct. elbow surgery is a concern, but I’ll boost him to 12-13 if he’s healthy next month | 171 |
| 19 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | Talent plays, I’m staying invested on my boy, especially at his continually dropping price | 169 |
| 20 | Eric Hosmer | SD | 1B | Major profile changes yielded power surge, but he has hold all the gains to earn this ADP | 132 |
| 21 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 1B, OF | Return from cancer looking good which is great; don’t forget he hit >.290 in ’17 & ’19 | 183 |
| 22 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | Late bloomer looks legit, though I don’t know about those 8 SBs from ’19 | 195 |
| 23 | Josh Bell | WAS | 1B | Team move alone can’t counter notable K spike & pwr dip back to ’18 levels, be careful | 163 |
| 24 | Carlos Santana | KC | 1B | Use career .248 AVG as a guide after outliers in ’19 (high) and ’20 (low) | 278 |
| 25 | Rowdy Tellez | TOR | 1B | If he keeps some of the K% gains (-12 pts to 16%), he could be a monster in that lineup | 240 |
| 26 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B, OF | Strong 35-gm sample is boosting his price too high for me, but .280/25 is very plausible | 148 |
| 27 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B | The ’19 pwr surge wasn’t supported in profile & he’s now 37; pay for AVG to slot at CI/UT | 271 |
| 28 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 1B, OF | Couldn’t carryover ’19 goodness, but added 5 pts to BB% and flashed above avg. wheels | 231 |
| 29 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | Disastrous debut still yielded 8 HR and created a buying opportunity as the price has tanked | 403 |
| 30 | C.J. Cron | FA | 1B | Needs a team, but this is a 30 HR bat if he finds 500+ PA somewhere | 362 |
| 31 | Renato Núñez | FA | 1B | Needs a team, but this is a 30 HR bat if he finds 500+ PA somewhere | 444 |
| 32 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | Boosted the pwr output in ’20 at the cost of AVG; merely a modest CI/UT option at age-37 | 354 |
| 33 | Garrett Cooper | MIA | 1B | Slotted into RF as of now w/a .281 AVG, 21 HR, 70 RBI, and 72 R in 554 PA since ’19 | 406 |
| 34 | Tommy La Stella | SF | 1B, 2B | Likely platooning w/Wilmer Flores & I’ll take a strong side hitting .280 w/15-20 HR | 316 |
| 35 | Nate Lowe | TEX | 1B | Will he deliver on the hype or be the next Jake Bauers? | 313 |
| 36 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B, 2B, 3B | Probably still 2-3 yrs until he’s in COL’s target age range… Coors doesn’t make a player | 247 |
| 37 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B | Love that he finally went off as Oracle played hitter-friendly… can’t pay for it, though | 384 |
| 38 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 1B, 3B | I want ’20 to be real, but a .372 BABIP won’t & he feels overpriced for ~.240/20 | 241 |
| 39 | Michael Chavis | BOS | 1B, 2B, OF | AVG sinkhole who might not have enough pwr to be worth it, even w/the triple elig. | 401 |
| 40 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B | No longer needs a full platoon w/decent work vR since ’17 | 303 |
| 41 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 1st 23 gms: 8 HR, .263 AVG, .959 OPS; Chavis 1st 23 gms: 7, .282, .943… don’t overrate ’20 | 289 |
| 42 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 1B | This reminds some of Belly/AGonz, but Belly had 135 gms at AA/AAA by then to Vaughn’s 0 | 319 |
| 43 | Mitch Moreland | FA | 1B | Platoon bat destroys righties; needs a home and fits best in a deep lg as 450 PA is his cap | 608 |
| 44 | Ji-Man Choi | TB | 1B | Per PA performance is nice, but there is no reasonable path to 500+ PA | 560 |
| 45 | Colin Moran | PIT | 1B | Playing daily in PIT might actually hurt his fantasy value w/a .236 AVG & .636 OPS vL | 469 |
| 46 | Josh Fuentes | COL | 1B | Arenado trade opens up a role, can he take advantage of it? Not a terrible deep lg spec | 508 |
| 47 | Marwin Gonzalez | FA | 1B, 2B, 3B, OF | Where he lands will determine what league type(s) he can be considered in | 510 |
| 48 | Lewin Díaz | MIA | 1B | Interesting prospect without a role right now… just keeping him in mind | 673 |
| 49 | Mike Brosseau | TB | 1B, 2B, 3B | His .742 OPS vR would be fine in many spots, in TB you get short side platooned (.939 vL) | 448 |
| 50 | Travis Shaw | FA | 1B, 3B | Strong side platoon bat w/some defensive versatility still in search of a home for ’21 | 612 |
SOURCE: NFBC ADP Since 1/1
Is D. Smith (NYM) basically a 3 AB/game guy and will yield to late inning defensive replacement in LF without the DH? Maybe an occasional start at 1B if Alonso needs a day off?
Well NYM news and reports thinks Alonso is the odd man out (if no DH), and I’d be inclined to agree.
Roster resource has Dom is in left, and people think the DH not happening is some sort of formality, but I think that is crazy. Still tons of negotiation going on regardless of what both sides let leak.
With that said, with news of MLB changing baseballs again, I’d be more inclined to be back in Alonso since he has man power that plenty of the guys who have been popping 20+ every year do not possess.
But at these ADPs I don’t really see the need to be in on either. Alonso has zero upside at that price imo. I am not one to give much thought to PT concerns, as talent plays, but at that ADP with Smith being the stronger side of the platoon and much better on defense, I’d be out. And what are you paying for? He projects basically similar to Olson who is going much, much later. And Olson is a guy who could play 162 games in a year, whereas Alonso has to be projected for fewer at bats. For that matter Hoskins/Alonso/Sano/Olson are all very similar players according to projections, and one of these guys is much more expensive than the other.
How do you figure that either of them is the odd man out? They both have starting jobs, even without the DH in the NL:
C: McCann
1B: Alonso
2B: McNeil
3B: Davis
SS: Lindor
LF: Smith
CF: Nimmo
RF: Conforto
My plan is to draft Freddie 🙂
Bohm (.410 BABIP) and Aguilar too high. Votto too low. Goldy’s probably too low but I have a hard time getting worked up over a few spots at the top of the list. Agree that Hoskins will move up as we get closer.
Yeah no expects .410 BABIP to last w/Bohm, but he’s more than just a fancy BABIP.
Need some explanation on why Aguilar’s too and Votto’s too low, the latter of which I do not agree with at all. I love Votto – one of my favorite players – but he’s cooked as fantasy asset.
Votto’s core numbers – K%, BB%, OSwing%, SwStr%, EV, LA – none of it is all THAT far off what he was doing 3-4 years ago. He has definitely tried to elevate a little more the last 3-4 years so more HR and lower BA are expected. Nobody expects him to go back to peak Votto, but he should continue to be a decent hitter playing every day at the top of what should be a good lineup in what is still a great hitter’s park. I’d bump him up at least 8 spots to just ahead of Santana and could probably talk myself into moving him up just behind Hoskins
Aguilar is 31 this year and has topped 500 PA in a season once. He was on pace last year but we obviously can’t know if he would have actually gotten there. His core numbers are just not anything special. He does a decent job controlling the strike zone but nothing special. He doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. His xwOBA has only been over .333 once in what now looks like a magical and probably unrepeatable 2018 (in a much better ballpark I might add). He will NEVER steal a base. He’s just a slightly above average-ish hitter in a probably crummy lineup in a bad ballpark and I’m not sure he’s an everyday guy. I’d take Votto over him every day.
Bohm. . . .I could maybe be talked into after looking at his numbers again. His Statcast page is nicely reddish. But I can also see .260 with marginal power and counting stats and he’s not really a stolen base guy at all.
I would note that if you average out the 6 projection systems, Bohm (.337 average wOBA projection) and Votto (.339) are pretty close and Aguilar (.326) is a bit behind with similar proportion in R/RBI (& that’s including ZiPS which is a massive outlier in the Votto projections – ZiPS agrees with you and REALLY thinks he is cooked).
Where would you rank Huira, assuming he’s the full-time 1B for MIL?
with the recent report about the baseballs changing again, this time to limit HRs — it makes sense to consider discounting those guys with shorter Average HR distances in this group…
As of three weeks ago, Hoskins said his rehab was proceeding ahead of schedule:
https://www.philliesnation.com/2021/01/rhys-hoskins-provides-update-on-elbow-injury/
So in view of athletes and excessive optimism, I am planning for him to be about a month behind.
You don’t have to overrate 2 months months of Abreu, he *also* led the AL w/123 RBI in 2019.
And that’s awesome. That’s why I have him 7th. The overrating of 2 months puts him 4th at 1B.
Comparing Nate Lowe to Jake Bauers seems like a lazy choice made only because both came up through the Tampa farm system. Bauers was never a power hitter in the upper minors, posting ISO in the mid-100s, (.128 -> .148), relying instead on his patience at the plate to draw a lot of walks to be a moderately high OBP guy, so 1B was never a conventional landing spot. The hope was that he might hit enough to play in the OF, where he played most of his games in 2019 for the Indians.
Lowe consistently produced in the upper minors an ISO in the 200’s with equally good plate discipline and much higher OBP, all of which slots well at 1B. Even while getting erratic playing time with the Rays he posted an ISOs of .191 and .209. Not sure there’s been that big of a hype machine going on, at least since 2020. The hope in Texas is that he’ll become a steady 3 WAR player and the comfort is that his floor is reasonably high, perhaps 1.5 to 2 WAR, which is better than anyone else the Rangers have tossed out at 1B for quite a few years. Lowe’s ADP has him so far as the 31st 1B taken.
Power + Patience >>>> Patience alone.