Paul Sporer’s Top 50 First Basemen

February 8, 2021

I didn’t even realize that Justin was doing his list today, but I love that we had this align so nicely. It’s a happy accident that is going to foster something of a rankings week, at least for the infield as we’ll have our 2B/3B/SS rankings out this week, too!

Justin’s 1B List

Here’s my list. I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 1B plan? do you want 3 1B for 1B/CI/UT? who is your sleeper at the position?

2021 1B Rankings

RK	PLAYER	TM	ELIG.	COMMENT	ADP
1	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	8-yr avg: .302/.394/.526; 110+ R/RBI per 162 gms since 2018	12
2	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B, OF	60-gm yr looked a lot like 2018, but he’s at 40 HR/15 SB per 162 gms in his career	15
3	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	1B, 2B, 3B	Elite work w/NYY looks remarkably stable as skills, park, and lineup are a perfect match	30
4	Max Muncy	LAD	1B, 2B, 3B	Was essentially himself save a .203 BABIP that ate up a bunch of hits; still triple elig., too	94
5	Luke Voit	NYY	1B	Top 4 in HR, RBI, R per 600 PA among 1B since ’18; with health he could reach 50 HRs	62
6	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B	Basically Voit with a bit less AVG (though also 4 yrs younger… it’s a coinflip between ’em)	57
7	José Abreu	CWS	1B	Damn fine player deserved his MVP, but I’m not overrating 2 mos. for a 34-year old	36
8	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	1B	Solid workhorse has six straight full seasons (90%+ of potential gms); SBs are about gone	100
9	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B	Nothing in profile says .222 AVG would’ve lasted in 6 mo. season, so why worry about it?	100
10	Matt Olson	OAK	1B	AVG tank feels mostly BABIP-related; put him down for .245 AVG/40 HR & go from there	90
11	Dominic Smith	NYM	1B, OF	NYM prefers a DH role for him, but bat is too good to sit even if it means primary LF	107
12	Alec Bohm	PHI	1B, 3B	Tasty little debut (139 wRC+) might push him in drafts; I’ll take anything past pick 100	105
13	Mike Moustakas	CIN	1B, 2B	Best used at 2B, though he’s a perfectly capable .250/30 bat to slot into 1B if you have to	123
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B	Not out on potential studification, but why buy this high on pure spec at a position like 1B?	56
15	Jared Walsh	LAA	1B	Swing changes finally brought some of his MiLB shine to MLB & I’m a believer	198
16	Miguel Sanó	MIN	1B	Plan for an awful AVG but he hits hard enough to spike a decent one at times; enjoy the HRs	192
17	Jesús Aguilar	MIA	1B	No, ’18 isn’t coming back, but got back on track in late ’19 & had a solid ’20; sneaky AVG asset	311
18	Rhys Hoskins	PHI	1B	Oct. elbow surgery is a concern, but I’ll boost him to 12-13 if he’s healthy next month	171
19	Jake Cronenworth	SD	1B, 2B, SS	Talent plays, I’m staying invested on my boy, especially at his continually dropping price	169
20	Eric Hosmer	SD	1B	Major profile changes yielded power surge, but he has hold all the gains to earn this ADP	132
21	Trey Mancini	BAL	1B, OF	Return from cancer looking good which is great; don’t forget he hit >.290 in ’17 & ’19	183
22	Christian Walker	ARZ	1B	Late bloomer looks legit, though I don’t know about those 8 SBs from ’19	195
23	Josh Bell	WAS	1B	Team move alone can’t counter notable K spike & pwr dip back to ’18 levels, be careful	163
24	Carlos Santana	KC	1B	Use career .248 AVG as a guide after outliers in ’19 (high) and ’20 (low)	278
25	Rowdy Tellez	TOR	1B	If he keeps some of the K% gains (-12 pts to 16%), he could be a monster in that lineup	240
26	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B, OF	Strong 35-gm sample is boosting his price too high for me, but .280/25 is very plausible	148
27	Yuli Gurriel	HOU	1B	The ’19 pwr surge wasn’t supported in profile & he’s now 37; pay for AVG to slot at CI/UT	271
28	Hunter Dozier	KC	1B, OF	Couldn’t carryover ’19 goodness, but added 5 pts to BB% and flashed above avg. wheels	231
29	Evan White	SEA	1B	Disastrous debut still yielded 8 HR and created a buying opportunity as the price has tanked	403
30	C.J. Cron	FA	1B	Needs a team, but this is a 30 HR bat if he finds 500+ PA somewhere	362
31	Renato Núñez	FA	1B	Needs a team, but this is a 30 HR bat if he finds 500+ PA somewhere	444
32	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	Boosted the pwr output in ’20 at the cost of AVG; merely a modest CI/UT option at age-37	354
33	Garrett Cooper	MIA	1B	Slotted into RF as of now w/a .281 AVG, 21 HR, 70 RBI, and 72 R in 554 PA since ’19	406
34	Tommy La Stella	SF	1B, 2B	Likely platooning w/Wilmer Flores & I’ll take a strong side hitting .280 w/15-20 HR	316
35	Nate Lowe	TEX	1B	Will he deliver on the hype or be the next Jake Bauers?	313
36	Ryan McMahon	COL	1B, 2B, 3B	Probably still 2-3 yrs until he’s in COL’s target age range… Coors doesn’t make a player	247
37	Brandon Belt	SF	1B	Love that he finally went off as Oracle played hitter-friendly… can’t pay for it, though	384
38	Jeimer Candelario	DET	1B, 3B	I want ’20 to be real, but a .372 BABIP won’t & he feels overpriced for ~.240/20	241
39	Michael Chavis	BOS	1B, 2B, OF	AVG sinkhole who might not have enough pwr to be worth it, even w/the triple elig.	401
40	Wilmer Flores	SF	1B, 2B	No longer needs a full platoon w/decent work vR since ’17	303
41	Bobby Dalbec	BOS	1B	1st 23 gms: 8 HR, .263 AVG, .959 OPS; Chavis 1st 23 gms: 7, .282, .943… don’t overrate ’20	289
42	Andrew Vaughn	CWS	1B	This reminds some of Belly/AGonz, but Belly had 135 gms at AA/AAA by then to Vaughn’s 0	319
43	Mitch Moreland	FA	1B	Platoon bat destroys righties; needs a home and fits best in a deep lg as 450 PA is his cap	608
44	Ji-Man Choi	TB	1B	Per PA performance is nice, but there is no reasonable path to 500+ PA	560
45	Colin Moran	PIT	1B	Playing daily in PIT might actually hurt his fantasy value w/a .236 AVG & .636 OPS vL	469
46	Josh Fuentes	COL	1B	Arenado trade opens up a role, can he take advantage of it? Not a terrible deep lg spec	508
47	Marwin Gonzalez	FA	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	Where he lands will determine what league type(s) he can be considered in	510
48	Lewin Díaz	MIA	1B	Interesting prospect without a role right now… just keeping him in mind	673
49	Mike Brosseau	TB	1B, 2B, 3B	His .742 OPS vR would be fine in many spots, in TB you get short side platooned (.939 vL)	448
50	Travis Shaw	FA	1B, 3B	Strong side platoon bat w/some defensive versatility still in search of a home for ’21	612

SOURCE: NFBC ADP Since 1/1

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Bob Andersonmember

3 years ago

Is D. Smith (NYM) basically a 3 AB/game guy and will yield to late inning defensive replacement in LF without the DH? Maybe an occasional start at 1B if Alonso needs a day off?

cartermember

Reply to Bob Anderson

Well NYM news and reports thinks Alonso is the odd man out (if no DH), and I’d be inclined to agree.

Roster resource has Dom is in left, and people think the DH not happening is some sort of formality, but I think that is crazy. Still tons of negotiation going on regardless of what both sides let leak.

With that said, with news of MLB changing baseballs again, I’d be more inclined to be back in Alonso since he has man power that plenty of the guys who have been popping 20+ every year do not possess.

But at these ADPs I don’t really see the need to be in on either. Alonso has zero upside at that price imo. I am not one to give much thought to PT concerns, as talent plays, but at that ADP with Smith being the stronger side of the platoon and much better on defense, I’d be out. And what are you paying for? He projects basically similar to Olson who is going much, much later. And Olson is a guy who could play 162 games in a year, whereas Alonso has to be projected for fewer at bats. For that matter Hoskins/Alonso/Sano/Olson are all very similar players according to projections, and one of these guys is much more expensive than the other.

-4

MisterMetmember

Reply to carter

How do you figure that either of them is the odd man out? They both have starting jobs, even without the DH in the NL:

C: McCann
1B: Alonso
2B: McNeil
3B: Davis
SS: Lindor
LF: Smith
CF: Nimmo
RF: Conforto