Chad Young’s Ottoneu Points 3B Ranks

by
February 23, 2021

We’re onto the third installment in this series, which started with catchers and then 1B. Today, we move across the diamond and look at 3B.

Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | OF|SP

A few reminders:

  1. These are based on points leagues, but can roughly be used for 4×4.
  2. I use projected points/game as a starting point, but factor in playing time, future value, and my own adjustments to projections.
  3. These rankings are position-specific – when I say that Willi Castro is a $0 player, that doesn’t mean you can’t roster him, it just means I don’t think he has value as a third basemen.
  4. The tiers below range up – so when you see Max Muncy in the $15 tier, that means I might go to $16, $17, even $19 on hi, but probably not $20.
  5. All tiers are pre-inflation.
  6. As with the 1B list, the “True 3B” column below represents where players rank among guys you would actually use at 3B – D.J. LaMahieu may qualify at 3B, but you are using him at 2B or MI.

Third base is super fun and super deep at the top this year, and here are 78 of them:

Chad Young’s Ottoneu FanGraphs Points 3B Ranks
Tier Rank True 3B Rank Player Eligibility P/G per Depth Charts Notes
$45 1 1 José Ramirez 3B 6.92 If you want cause for concern, he hits so many FB that I suspect the .294 BABIP will come down, but he has room to regress a lot and still be the best 3B out there.
$45 2 2 Anthony Rendon 3B 6.35 Over the last four years, he leads all 3B in wOBA and he has been super consistent, with no signs of slowing down.
$35 3 Alex Bregman SS/3B 6.72 Over the last three years, he leads all 3B in wOBA, but 2020 was a big drop, and there’s just a touch of concern for me.
$35 4 3 Nolan Arenado 3B 6.08 The dirty little secret about Coors Field is that it suppresses road numbers maybe as much as it helps home numbers; Arenado will still be Arenado in St. Louis.
$25 5 Manny Machado SS/3B 6.09 He’s been up and down the last few years, but could easily jump back towards that top tier with a repeat of his 2020.
$20 6 4 Rafael Devers 3B 6.35 His career year in 2019 was driven by a big drop in K%; while he’s a great bounceback candidate, 2019 will probably stay his best.
$20 7 5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/3B 6.27 A 50.8% hard hit rate with elite max exit velocity is good; now he just needs to elevate the ball.
$20 8 6 Eugenio Suarez 3B 5.82 He got off to a wretched start and posted a shockingly low BABIP, otherwise he looked a lot like the guy who set the world on fire in 2019.
$15 9 7 Matt Chapman 3B 5.91 As hard as he hits the ball, I think Chapman may have a gear we haven’t seen yet.
$15 10 8 Miguel Sano 1B/3B 5.96 He’s so up and down it’s hard to get a read on him, At least it’s an odd year?
$15 11 9 Justin Turner 3B 5.76 If he were younger, he would be a lot higher on this list and you can probably get great production from him this year.
$15 12 10 Kris Bryant 3B/OF 5.62 Projections seems suggest a strong bounceback, but the second worst season of his career; I’ll take the over.
$15 13 Max Muncy 1B/2B/3B 5.86 His HR/FB rate dropped last year and took his season with it, but there’s good reason to think it will rebound.
$10 14 DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B 5.58 His .364 wOBA since the start of 2016 is probably a better bet for 2021 than a repeat of his 2019-20, and might still be optimistic.
$10 15 11 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 5.55 He probably won’t get quite this close to the top 10 in 2021, but you can lock him into your lineup for years to come and feel good about it.
$10 16 Jeff Mcneil 2B/3B/OF 5.59 His projections are calling for the lowest wOBA of his career – take the over.
$10 17 Ian Happ 2B/3B/OF 5.63 I want to call 2020 his breakout, but he was almost exactly as good in 2019 and that just might be who he is.
$10 18 12 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 5.41 There will be growing pains, but his glove will keep him in the lineup and his bat can be very good, even without another .450 BABIP.
$10 19 13 Josh Donaldson 3B 5.94 He’s not the bat he once was and I’m skeptical he can match either the production or the number of games played in his projections.
$5 20 Cavan Biggio 2B/3B/OF 5.12 If the 2020 K-rate improvement was just small sample noise, he’s a solid option; if it was development, he’ll be even more than that.
$5 21 14 Gio Urshela 3B 5.15 His Statcast data suggests the 2019-20 breakout was legit, but I’m not all the way bought in yet.
$5 22 Mike Moustakas 1B/2B/3B 5.69 He chased less and made more contact and yet his strikeouts jumped; I’m willing to bet the strikeout rate returns to his career numbers.
$5 23 15 Yoan Moncada 3B 5.30 I get that COVID may have sapped his strength in 2020, but I still think 2019 will end up being a BABIP- and HR/FB-driven outlier.
$5 24 16 Austin Riley 3B/OF 5.31 With big jumps in plate discipline in 2020, he made real strides towards a big breakout.
$1 25 17 Nolan Jones 3B 5.40 He’ll get service timed by Cleveland, but his high-on-base approach will translate well.
$1 26 18 J.D. Davis 3B/OF 5.17 Some talk of McNeil playing more 3B could be a problem for Davis who has no real role if he isn’t the everyday 3B.
$1 27 19 Hunter Dozier 1B/3B/OF 5.10 His BABIP fell as did his hard-hit rate in 2020, but his walk rate took a nice leap, so there is upside here.
$1 28 20 Nolan Gorman 3B #N/A Gorman is supposedly getting work at 2B and if that holds, his ranking on this list becomes irrelevant; the bat will play at 3B but it will shine at 2B.
$1 29 21 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 5.25 2020 wasn’t entirely BABIP, but it was enough BABIP that the fall is going to be rough.
$1 30 22 Josh Jung 3B 2.98 He should be up this year, but without any real experience above A-ball, it’s hard to know what to expect near-term.
$1 31 23 Brian Anderson 3B/OF 5.15 The fact that a perfectly solid Brian Anderson is this low says more about the talent at 3B than it does about him.
$1 32 Nick Solak 2B/3B/OF 4.94 He’s not as good as his 2019 or as bad as his 2020 and sometimes it’s best to just look at the whole body of work and say, “That seems right.”
$1 33 24 Edwin Rios 1B/3B 4.52 He’d be much higher up this list without the Justin Turner signing, as the bat is intriguing.
$1 34 25 Bobby Dalbec 1B/3B 5.14 In 2018, in his first taste of AA, he struck out 37.1% of the time; next year, same level, he struck out 25.1% of the time. So at least there is precedent for the hope that he brings down the ugly 2020 K-rate.
$1 35 Luis Arraez 2B/3B/OF 5.24 He’s likely in a utility role, which caps his upside significantly, especially in points leagues.
$1 36 Carter Kieboom 2B/SS/3B 4.65 He’s supoposed to flash decent power, but in limited big league time it has been non-existent.
$1 37 Willians Astudillo C/1B/3B 5.08 Like Arraez, but more fun and fewer PA.
$1 38 Tommy La Stella 1B/2B/3B 5.09 I might be relying too heavily on projections for this, a bit like I am for Urshela, but I think he settles back in as an average-ish hitter.
$1 39 26 Kyle Seager 3B 4.95 Just ignore his 2018 and look for something similar to his 2019 and 2020.
$1 40 27 Renato Nunez 1B/3B 5.35 If he can repeat his 2020, he’ll hold a job all year and be far more valuable than this; if he can’t he’ll lose his job as the Tigers bring up the kids.
$1 41 Ty France 1B/2B/3B 4.96 His breakout mostly relies on the notoriously fickle line-drive rate.
$1 42 Colin Moran 1B/2B/3B 4.99 It looked like he broke out in the first half of 2020, but his numbers down the stretch were pretty unexciting.
$1 43 28 Yandy Diaz 1B/3B 4.96 In 2019 he finally elevated the ball and his career-high fly ball rate paid off; then he posted a career-low FB rate in 2020.
$1 44 29 Yoshi Tsutsugo 3B/OF 5.19 Was his 65 wRC+ in the first half just adjusting to a new league? The 125 wRC+ in the second half says yes. Well, it says maybe.
$1 45 Ryan McMahon 1B/2B/3B 5.16 If it feels like McMahon has been failing to take advantage of opportunities in Colorado for years, he has; but he is also only 26.
$0 46 Willi Castro SS/3B 4.94 This is me maybe overreacting to his .448 BABIP in 2020, cause this is an interesting bat.
$0 47 Eduardo Escobar 2B/3B 4.93 His 2020 wasn’t as bad as it looked, but I suspect we’re into a real decline.
$0 48 Dylan Moore 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.24 I think the fall will be steep, and his 20+ SB won’t help you here.
$0 49 Nico Hoerner 2B/SS/3B 4.50 He’ll be the Cubs starting 2B this year, but I think he projects more as a super-utility guy.
$0 50 Isaac Paredes SS/3B 4.38 His lack of a clear path to playing time is a short-term issue; his lack of power might be a longer-term one.
$0 51 30 Sherten Apostel 3B 3.23 He’s the second-best 3B prospect ready for time in 2021 in his own organization, which is not ideal.
$0 52 31 Brett Baty 3B #N/A May not stick and 3B and is probalby still a year away, but the bat should play when it plays.
$0 53 32 Yuli Gurriel 1B/3B 4.88 He’ll be better than he was in 2020, but I don’t think he has another 2019 in him.
$0 54 33 Jonathan India 3B #N/A Just not that exciting a bat, lacking the power that you really need to be a succesful Ottoneu 3B.
$0 55 Jean Segura 2B/SS/3B 4.89 Brad Miller muddies the waters for a guy whose 2020 plate discipline is such an outlier, I have to assume he will return to form and be a solid if unexciting bat.
$0 56 Brad Miller 2B/3B/OF 4.82 A .358 wOBA over his last two seasons is really good, but it’s unclear what his role is going to be.
$0 57 Andres Gimenez 2B/SS/3B 4.38 His intersting 2020 was interestng for a MI but not a 3B.
$0 58 David Fletcher 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.47 Empty OBP is more exciting in Ottoneu than a lot of other formats, but it is still empty OBP.
$0 59 Luis Urias 2B/SS/3B 4.54 He may have run out of opportunities with the Brewers.
$0 60 Tommy Edman 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.56 His 2019 was super fun but his 2020 looks like a more reasonable expectation.
$0 61 Scott Kingery 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.08 A .200 BABIP hid improved BB%, K%, and Barrel Rate, but he needs to combine his 2020 plate discipline with his 2019 EV and Hard Hit rates to break out.
$0 62 Joey Wendle 2B/SS/3B 4.30 The floor is high but the ceiling is low, and 3B is too deep for his profile to have much value here.
$0 63 Asdrubal Cabrera 1B/2B/3B 5.01 He’s been better than you think for 14 years now, and probably will be again, but he’s also unlikely to hold a full-time job.
$0 64 34 Rio Ruiz 1B/3B 4.50 Had a mini-breakout that was lost in the 2020 mess, but he still only played to “watchlist” status.
$0 65 35 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF 4.83 I am always low on this profile, and now Andujar has been relegated to a bench role.
$0 66 Mike Brosseau 1B/2B/3B/OF 4.82 The Rays will maximize his value by putting him in positions to succeed, but those positions will be too few and far between to be a useful 3B.
$0 67 Jon Berti 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.38 Someone will overvalue him because his 5×5 value is higher, thanks to the SB, but he hasnt shown any real points value.
$0 68 Shed Long Jr. 2B/3B/OF 3.97 He’s only this high because there is still some upside there.
$0 69 36 Evan Longoria 3B 4.49 Solid increases in Barrel rate, Hard Hit rate, and EV weren’t enough to bring him back to his glory days or earn him a full-time role.
$0 70 37 Matt Beaty 1B/3B/OF 4.57 He was buried on the bench before Turner re-signed. And then Turner re-signed.
$0 71 Kyle Farmer C/1B/2B/SS/3B 3.79 It’s not impossible to believe he could have a little Ottoneu value, but it won’t be as your 3B.
$0 72 38 Maikel Franco 3B 4.92 Franco was a lot better in 2020, but still got non-tendered and now doesn’t have a job; he belongs on watchlists if he gets one.
$0 73 39 Jake Lamb 1B/3B 4.70 Lamb was legitimately excellent once he got full-time PA with Oakland, but he doesn’t even have a part-time job now.
$0 74 David Bote 2B/3B 4.72 Might be a guy who needs some launch angle help – good contact, high HR/FB rate, but a low launch angle and not enough FB in general.
$0 75 40 Matt Carpenter 3B 4.83 His performance has been declining for a couple years, but the Arenado acquisition leaves him with nowhere to play.
$0 76 Isiah Kiner-Falefa C/SS/3B 4.09 His only real value comes from being C-eligible and maybe getting 150+ starts.
$0 77 41 Travis Shaw 1B/3B 4.85 Shaw seemed like an obvious buy-low to me last year; now that I am out on him, he’ll probably hit 30 HR.
$0 78 Andy Young 2B/SS/3B 4.60 His minor league numbers look fun, but he’s always been old for his leagues and I don’t expect much.





 

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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ArmadilloFury
3 years ago

Urshela is legit good. It’s a case of people being extra skeptical of late career breakouts like Turner & Muncy. He has a .289 xBA and .504 xSLG over 650 PA in 2019-2020. His .368 wOBA over 2019-20 is 7th among 3B so his 21 rank seems like a huge fade. If anything he seems to be getting better as he showed big gains in plate discipline in 2020 (10.3 BB% vs 6.2% career, 14.4 K% vs 17.6% career, 30.2 O-Swing% vs 37.7% career).

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