The last major component of my xHR/FB rate equation is fly ball pull percentage (FB Pull%). Since hitters generally can generate more power to their pull side and distance along the lines are always shorter than toward center, a higher pulled fly ball rate is almost always better for HR/FB rate. Pulled fly ball rate is a skill, as I calculated soon after revealing my xHR/FB equation, so a change is worth noting. That said, as usual, regression toward individual averages are always inevitable, so typically the batter enjoying a spike or enduring a decline reverses courses and moves back toward their average the following year. Remember that when reading this list and commentary.

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I was wrong. About seven years ago, I wrote on how hitters may overperform their projections since they played through an injury. The injury hampered their production in the season in question, lowered the future projection, and created a buying opportunity. For years, I believed this steadily until last season when I re-ran the numbers and found “jack squat”.

Earlier this week, I examined some of this past season’s hitters who fought through the pain and felt a deeper analysis was needed. I dove in and the results were backwards. I found no bounceback should be expected from hitters who played through injuries, but there is more. For those hitters who play through the discomfort, their future production will take a major hit.

The key to uncovering the following results was getting a usable dataset which is easier said than done. Many of the injuries I’m using for the analysis aren’t well documented, if at all. Real men play baseball and they play hurt because that is what real men do and most importantly, they don’t complain about. Besides the machismo, a player has every right to keep his medical data to himself so vagueness thrives. Simply, there is no good available data. Even with the hurdles, I dug into each of the hitters who were reported to have played through an injury the past three seasons (2017, 2018, 2019).

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters who had increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) by at least 20 feet from 2018 to 2019. Today, I’ll take on the decliners, but expand the group to those that lost at least 15 feet (it’s no surprise given the leaguewide HR/FB rate surge that there are more surgers than decliners). Like I did with the surger list, I’ll only discuss those who did not appear on the barrels per true fly ball decliner list, as there’s overlap. Actually, now that I see the list of overlaps, there’s very little, with the only notable name being Luke Voit on both lists.

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On Monday, I discussed the surgers in one of the components of my xHR/FB rate equation, barrels per true fly ball. Today, we’ll hop over to another important component of the equation, average fly ball distance (AFBD, because I’m lazy). While you might expect the two lists to include similar names, 11 of the 31 names did not increase their Brl/TFB rate by at least 10%. So yes, that means the majority do appear on both lists, but probably less a majority you would think. So it’s worth consulting each group separately. This list includes all hitters with at least 30 fly balls in both 2018 and 2019 and increased their AFBD marks by at least 20 feet. I won’t discuss guys already discussed from Monday’s list.

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In last week’s edition of this series, we uncovered several undervalued speedsters for 2020 drafts. We did so by comparing the Steamer projections to current NFBC Average Draft Position reports. Today, we will go through a similar exercise for potential power bargains.

For this article’s draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from November 27, 2019 to present).

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters who at increased their barrels per true fly ball (Brl/TFB) rates by at least 10% over 2018. Today, I’ll discuss the opposite end of the spectrum, those whose Brl/TFB rates fell at least 10% from 2018.

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I’ve had a semi-fixation on hitters playing through injuries and how the diminished production could hamper the next season’s projection. At first, I found some correlation. Then, I didn’t. One possible answer to there being no bounceback is that the injury becomes chronic and the hitter never improves. Or the dataset could be too small.

I want to dive further into the subject, but the information around injuries is sketchy at best. Most of the time, there are no usable details. The lack of an answer means that I should stop coming back to the subject but I’m stubborn.

Very.

I’m going to go through this past season’s hitters. The dive has a couple of goals. One is to create a better dataset for future reference. The second is to understand why some hitters may have struggled when creating a profile. And just maybe, I’ll find out if I can put to rest the notion that hitters who played through injuries are under projected.
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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 75 Outfielders for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

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Two years ago, I introduced my latest xHR/FB rate equation, which incorporates two Statcast metrics. One of these metrics is barrels per true fly ball rate (Brls/TFB), which is defined as such: # of barrels / (# fly balls – # of pop-ups). Barrels is a Statcast metric, while I am using the fly ball and infield fly ball (pop-ups) counts from FanGraphs. Since barrels accounts for both exit velocity and launch angle, it’s a favorite metric of mine. So let’s review all the hitters with at least 25 true fly balls who increased their Brls/TFB rates by at least 10 percentage points.

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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted (2B, SS) for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 50 Middle Infielders for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

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