Archive for Featured

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Roupp hasn’t been great of late (5.40 ERA/1.52 WHIP/13% K-BB in L30 days) which is why I went 2-x, but I can see a 10-team start, especially in light of TOR sitting 28th in wOBA in the last 2 wks.
• Jax, meanwhile, is rolling and catches an NYY team that sits dead last in the last two weeks and 26th for the month so I can see some 10-team starts for him, too. I definitely would start both Roupp and Jax in 10-team weekly lineups formats to get the 2-step.
• I’m kinda back on the ReyLo train. I’m a long-time fan so it’s not that surprising but I’m definitely surprised to have him slotted above Peralta, his opponent on Monday.
• Peralta catches a sputtering ATL offense but will it even matter? He’s been brutal with an 8.49 ERA/1.71 WHIP/9% K-BB in the L30. And yes, there is a 10-bomb in there but even removing that only takes him down to 5.22 in that time. Despite the turmoil, I still can’t see myself benching for a 2-step in medium-to-deep formats. He hasn’t been this bad all year so I think we just have to slog through this in a lot of situations.
• Lauer gets COL off a Coors homestand and has the Dodgers offense and pen at his back.
• The problem with starting Buehler (other than his statistics) is that SDP offers no offensive support so he has to be perfect v. ARI and hope they scratch a few against Pfaadt (they should because he’s very gettable, but can’t bank on it).
• I remain stunned how little PHI is moving the needle on their wOBA rankings even as they continue to pile up wins. Their ranking does not convince me to spin Cameron in any format.

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7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

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Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.

Note: This article will be a working document over the weekend. I’ll rank the players with the information I have on Saturday morning and will update it when I find time and as information comes in. I’ll put the date and time for any updates below

• • 7/4 morning: All players ranked, and the notes for some I find interesting. Many of the top guys have no write-up because they’ve featured for weeks.
  • 7/5 morning: Not much change in movement. I did rerank the top starting pitchers. Baltimore bullpen information added.
  • 7/5 morning: Add Victor Bericoto

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Griffin catches the good side of facing PIT as they’re a top offense vR but middling or worse vL. He’s coming off a brilliant June, too: 1.16 ERA/.80 WHIP/24% K-BB in 31.3 IP.
• Detmers and Webb both draw Top 10 offense – and Webb is headed to Coors – but I still got them in the Top 5 because of their strong seasons and especially strong recent work. Last 30 Days – RD: 2.27 ERA/.82 WHIP/18% K-BB | LW: .71 ERA/.61 WHIP/19% K-BB
• After going 6+ IP in eight straight coming into June, Gav Williams didn’t reach 6 IP in any of his five June starts against a tough slate of teams (NYY 2x, MIL, CHW, and SEA). He did finish the month w/back-to-back 5 IP/2 ER outings, including one against the same CHW team he faces today so despite the June Swoon, I can’t see benching him anywhere.
• Harrison draws the tough side of ARI but it only moves him down a couple spots as he’s obviously been way too good to skip any starts.
• Castillo rebounded from a tough Follow appearance (4 IP/4 ER) with a gem against the hobbled Guardians: 6 scoreless with 4 Ks, 1 BB. After a rough start that included a pair of 7 ER Duds in April, Castillo has been a solid mid-rotation arm since even with the uncertain role: 4.12 ERA/1.14 WHIP/16% K-BB in 48.3 IP and has just a 3.38 ERA in the L30 days.
• We saw 12.7 scoreless IP out of Cole to start his season, but then just a 6.12 ERA/1.48 WHIP combo in June with 7 HRs allowed and less than a strikeout-per-inning (22 in 25 IP) holding him back. MIN’s offense is sneaky great vR, sitting 6th on the year in wOBA and 1st over the L30 days. I don’t think he’s a must-start and I wouldn’t be targeting him in any sort of DFS game.
• I slept on Bennett a bit but now 6 starts in, he’s looking quite good, especially of late. He only had 4 Ks in his first two starts (10.3 IP), but he’s up to 21 in his last 22.7 IP that included 6 shutout innings and 9 Ks in Coors!
• Arrighetti had a devastating June (9.00 ERA in 25 IP), getting cooked in 4 of 5 starts despite reaching 6 IP in three of ’em and still netting 32 Ks. Guys like this can be so frustrating because the second you move off them, they drop 7 scoreless with 10 Ks.

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Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: Again, I noticed almost no good options and it showed in the players added. Normally, I write up the players added in five or more leagues, so I included the guys added in four leagues. Additionally, went over $46 with most of the max’s in the $20’s.

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Earlier in the week, we examined several pitchers who have been pitching better than their SIERA suggests. We’re following that up with pitchers who have been struggling and underperforming their SIERA this season.

The visual below shows the pitchers who ranked in the top 25 among pitchers who have underperformed their SIERA.

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Writing about red hot chili players can be fun. When an otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts slamming the ball, that is objectively entertaining. Especially for the fantasy manager, players who are far exceeding their draft price or FAAB cost just give us a bit of extra enjoyment when they perform well. 

Junior Caminero is certainly red hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, in his first full season, which he finished as a 22-year-old, this really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Sure, the fact that he’s hit bombs in six consecutive games, and that the stretch in question started with a three-homer game, is wildly impressive. But it’s easy to forget there were some who doubted the phenom third baseman. 

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• I really hope we get the gem we deserve from Miz v. Burns.
• Miller has been absolutely electric, allowing so few base runners that the 1.4 HR9 isn’t hurting. It reminds me a bit of peak Robbie Ray’s approach – just hammer the zone and let your stuff do the work, homers be damned. Obviously a 99% LOB rate won’t hold, nor will the .216 BABIP, and probably not even his 30% K-BB, but he doesn’t need to stay this hot to be an all-formats must-start pitcher.
• Roki opened last month with a gem (7 scoreless, 10 Ks) before a June Swoon in his other three (14 IP, 13 ER, 12 Ks, 9 BB), but I can’t see skipping this one v. SDP. They were hitting a bit a week or so ago but now have 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their L5.
• Not only did Ureña have a shutout going into the 5th inning of his last start, but also a no-hitter before allowing 7 R on 6 H and 2 BB
• May got an extended layoff for back tightness after his Dud at KCR so I can see skipping this if you’re nervous. He is catching ATL at a great time, though, as they sit dead last vR in the L30 days.
• Cecconi hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since May 2nd and went at least 5 IP in all five June starts. Just a 10% K-BB in that time keeps expectations in check which is why it’s still only a 2-x recommendation. He’s startable in 10s if you’re vibing with him but this CHW offense makes me nervous.
• Waldrep was up to 71 pitches in his last MiLB start on June 21st so I don’t think this necessarily has to be a short start if he’s doing well.

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Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

Astros

• Lance McCullers Jr. is beginning his rehab assignment.

RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
Injury: Right rotator cuff impingement.
IL date: May 19 (15-day, retroactive to May 16)
Expected return: July
Status: Made first Minor League rehab start June 25 for Triple-A Sugar Land, throwing three scoreless innings.

In his first rehab start, there was no pitch mix change, and his average fastball velocity dropped 0.4 mph. The key was no walks after a 5.0 BB/9 in the majors this season. He can build around his 9.8 K/9. He’s readily available (1% rostered), so he could be a free add if he contains the walks. Read the rest of this entry »