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2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts

Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In a just released study, THE BAT X and Steamer were the two best original projection systems last year that were reviewed by FantasyPros and available on this very site. So let’s compare their individual hitter wOBA forecasts and discuss the hitters each is most optimistic on versus the other. Since most projection systems tend to produce similar results, especially the aggregates, it’s always fun to learn about the outliers in the original systems, as they could be the product of factors missed by the other systems or overvalued that leads to inaccurate forecasts.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1476 – News and Notes

2/15/26

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PATREON

Notable Transactions/News/Rumors (sorted by Feb DC ADP)

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1475 – 2026 Outfield Preview Pt. 2

2/13/26

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

2026 OUTFIELD PREVIEW

Group 2

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Mining the News (2/13/26)


Syndication: Worcester Telegram

• To keep current on all injuries, MLB.com has a single page linked to all the team reports. Here is the report on Ryan Bliss possibly not being ready by Opening Day.

2B Ryan Bliss
Injury: Right meniscus tear
Expected return: Potentially by Opening Day
Status: Injured while running bases during rehab assignment last September, when returning from a left biceps tear five months earlier. Underwent surgery on Sept. 8 but reported early to Spring Training. (Last updated: Feb. 11)

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Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/13/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for eight players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for four players based on 2026 draft results.

 


Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP


Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 919.6 1.43 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 636.4 1.32 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 644.7 1.31 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Hunter Goodman C 678.6 1.31 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 5 Shea Langeliers C 678.0 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 6 Iván Herrera C 612.7 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 802.3 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 602.6 1.27 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Gabriel Moreno C 446.1 1.19 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 10 Samuel Basallo C/1B 462.0 1.18 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alejandro Kirk C 543.4 1.18 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 12 Francisco Alvarez C 451.3 1.18 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$6-$9 13 Salvador Perez C/1B 695.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 14 Adley Rutschman C 613.7 1.13 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$6-$9 15 Yainer Diaz C 611.7 1.13 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$6-$9 16 Carter Jensen C 472.0 1.10 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$6-$9 17 Agustín Ramírez C 593.6 1.09 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 18 Ryan Jeffers C 525.3 1.14 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 19 Tyler Stephenson C 475.1 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$1-$2 20 Kyle Teel C 456.6 1.09 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$1-$2 21 Austin Wells C 465.2 1.08 Should be a good source of power but plate discipline took a big step backwards in 2025.
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 522.0 1.08 He’s back in Philadelphia but 2025 was his worst season since his rookie year in 2015. How much longer can he catch 100+ games?
$1-$2 23 Dillon Dingler C 443.8 1.08 Pretty significant breakout in his first full season in the big leagues. Good contact quality but might be a little too dependent on BABIP.
$1-$2 24 Dalton Rushing C 271.2 1.08 Playing time blocked behind Will Smith, but could force his way into at-bats in the outfield mix or as backup catcher.
$1-$2 25 Moisés Ballesteros C 451.7 1.07 Top prospect should get plenty of time as DH in 2026. Promising late season debut, but contact quality is a little lacking.
$1-$2 26 Victor Caratini C/1B 362.0 1.06 Should see plenty of playing time as DH and backup catcher. Decent underlying skills and improved strikeout rate by 2.5 points in 2025.
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 28 Sean Murphy C 373.5 1.09
$0-$1 29 Gary Sánchez C 274.8 1.08
$0-$1 30 Carson Kelly C 387.1 1.07
$0-$1 31 Danny Jansen C 336.4 1.03
$0-$1 32 Joey Bart C 323.4 1.03
$0-$1 33 Luis Campusano C 351.6 1.02
$0-$1 34 Carlos Narváez C 417.8 1.01
$0-$1 35 Kyle Higashioka C 273.6 0.99
$0-$1 36 Edgar Quero C 415.2 0.98
$0-$1 37 Logan O’Hoppe C 434.4 0.98
$0-$1 38 Harry Ford C 363.1 0.97
$0-$1 39 Bo Naylor C 398.6 0.97
$0 40 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 41 Connor Wong C 324.4 0.99
$0 42 Liam Hicks C/1B 329.3 0.99
$0 43 Miguel Amaya C 254.1 0.96
$0 44 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 247.8 0.95
$0 45 Travis d’Arnaud C 238.1 0.93
$0 46 James McCann C 186.3 0.93
$0 47 Mitch Garver C 282.4 0.92
$0 48 Hunter Feduccia C 250.8 0.90
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 335.3 0.89
$0 50 Jake Rogers C 217.4 0.88
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 328.5 0.86
$0 52 Elias Díaz C 263.2 0.86
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 290.0 0.86
$0 54 Rafael Marchán C 118.7 0.85
$0 55 Reese McGuire C 153.5 0.85
$0 56 Jose Trevino C 214.6 0.82
$0 57 Patrick Bailey C 362.5 0.82
$0 58 Henry Davis C 225.5 0.81
$0 59 Jonah Heim C 326.7 0.81
$0 60 Jacob Stallings C 161.9 0.80
$0 61 Nick Fortes C 222.2 0.78
$0 62 Korey Lee C 231.0 0.75
$0 63 Ben Rortvedt C 158.8 0.70
$0 64 Christian Vázquez C 171.6 0.69

Interesting Results from Early Ottoneu Auctions

Chicago White Sox first baseman <a href=

With the Ottoneu keeper deadline on January 31, it is possible for auctions for established leagues to start as soon as February 1. In practice, they rarely do, but there are a few auctions either underway (slow auctions taking some time to finish up) or completed, and that gives us a chance to learn quite a bit.

Earlier in the offseason, there were some mock auctions and some first-year auctions for new leagues, but those don’t behave like keeper auctions. Now that we have a few keeper auctions, we can start to get a sense of how your keeper drafts – whether they are Ottoneu auctions or drafts in another format – might behave.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 11th, 2026

Thanks for coming out!!

1:10

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

1:10

BMK: Howdy!

1:10

Paul Sporer: Hi!!

1:10

T-Bone is the villain: Do we think the Green Monster will completely screw Durbin’s power, or will the increase in doubles and babip, etc make up for the probably HR dip?

1:16

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it will definitely eat up some of his HRs, but the trade off could easily be a substantial AVG boost (10+ pts) as he just peppers the Monster with 1Bs/2Bs

1:16

Troy Melton’s Broken Pathway: What are your thoughts on the Tigers rotation upgrades this week? …and Reese Olson 🙁

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Updating NFBC ADP Data on FanGraphs

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Hunter Gaddis (33) is relieved from the mound win the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field.
Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

With the Super Bowl behind us and pitchers and catchers already in camp, fantasy draft season is officially in full swing. That means it is time to update the Average Draft Position (ADP) data we use on FanGraphs.

FanGraphs pulls in ADP data from the NFBC and displays it in a few places on the site where it can be useful to our readers:

As of today, the first three will all show NFBC ADP for Online Championships. ADP shown on rankings articles will update when those rankings are next updated and this will be noted in the changelog on each piece.

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Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/31/2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (2/10/26)


Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Free Agents

Griffin Canning touched 93 mph in his showcase.

Considering his fastball was sitting 94 mph (touching 96.6 mph) last season, he’s still got a ways to go to be all the way back.

American League

Guardians

• Here is MLB.com’s projected rotation.

Starting Pitchers (5): Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo

The rotation is expected to drop back down to five starters after the Guardians rode a six-man staff to the AL Central title in 2025. Someone will be the odd man out. Parker Messick made a strong impression down the stretch last year, and he’ll certainly factor in at some point. But he has Minor League options remaining and could open the season with Columbus. Cantillo has relief experience, though he was stellar over five starts in September (1.55 ERA in 29 innings). He’s out of options.

Of Cecconi, Cantillo, Allen, and Messick, Cantillo is the only one out of options. As long as he’s healthy, he should make the rotation while one of the other three will be relegated to AAA or the bullpen.

Rays

Shane McClanahan will be ready by Opening Day, but his innings will be capped.

Rays fans have been waiting two years to see Shane McClanahan on a big-league mound. The electric lefty missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then lost another season to a nerve issue in his triceps. McClanahan is on track to be ready for the 2026 campaign, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, though the southpaw will likely have his workload capped in some fashion.

Red Sox

• Even after trading for Caleb Durbin, the team doesn’t know who will play second or third base.

Cora says Sox won’t commit yet to how they’ll handle 2B and 3B. They’ll figure out how they want to use Mayer, Durbin, and Kiner-Falefa (who offers SS protection for Story). “We’ve got enough.” Cora would like to have a stable 2B/SS combo.

Alex Speier (@alexspeier.bsky.social) 2026-02-09T18:00:55.575Z

Romy Gonzalez dealt with a setback in his shoulder rehab, but plans to be ready by Opening Day.

White Sox

Andrew Benintendi will get some DH at-bats.

The White Sox still like Benintendi’s left-handed power bat, but Getz admitted Benintendi’s legs leading to him not being able to cover ground he once did has held him back. Benintendi feels good physically, per Getz, but will get at-bats at designated hitter.

The Benintendi at-bats will cut into the playing time of Edgar Quero and Lenyn Sosa at DH. If anyone on the White Sox isn’t playing every game, they won’t be fantasy relevant.

Mike Vasil will be a multi-inning reliever.

The same goes for Vasil, although Getz said the right-hander will be working toward a multi-inning role.

“We’re still kind of open-minded on that,” said Getz of Vasil. “It is nice now that the Rule 5 handcuffs are off, so that allows us to be perhaps a little bit more creative with him.”

Yankees

• According to the manager, Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil are in the Opening Day rotation.

The Yanks can’t wait to get those first two frontline pitchers back in the fold soon, but there will be no rush, according to manager Aaron Boone. The club’s rotation is in a pretty good spot as is.

“We’re talking about probably [Max] Fried, [Cam] Schlittler, [Will] Warren, [Ryan] Weathers and [Luis] Gil to start the season in the rotation,” Boone said Sunday on MLB Network Radio. “And you always have [Ryan] Yarbrough and [Paul] Blackburn there that can fill that role very capably.”

National League

Braves

Hurston Waldrep might start the season in the minors because he is the only backend starter with options.

Where is Hurston Waldrep? The talented young hurler has the ability to be one of the team’s top starters. But Holmes, Bryce Elder and Joey Wentz are out of options. So, to protect the club’s depth, they would likely begin the season in the Majors, as long as they aren’t traded before Opening Day.

Cardinals

Thomas Saggese could get some outfield reps for injured Lars Nootbaar.

And Saggese, who has been a utility infielder, could get some reps in the outfield this spring, especially since Nootbaar won’t be ready on Opening Day.

Marlins

• Lots of competition for the first base job with Christopher Morel, Griffin Conine, and Liam Hicks being mentioned.

Phillies

Zack Wheeler will not be ready by Opening Day.

The Phillies do not expect Zack Wheeler to be ready by Opening Day.

It’s not a huge surprise as the ace continues his rehab from his Sept. 23 thoracic outlet decompression surgery. Still, manager Rob Thomson essentially confirmed as much for the first time on Monday afternoon.

“He’s doing well; I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day,” Thomson said. “But it’s not going to be too far behind that.”

Reds

TJ Friedl will leadoff with Elly De La Cruz batting third.

Now that the cleanup spot is figured out, Francona is trying to determine who might bat second behind TJ Friedl and ahead of De La Cruz.

“To me, that’s the biggest [question], because we want to have somebody break up Elly and TJ, so it needs to be somebody that bats right-handed. My first thought was [Noelvi] Marte, but he struggled so bad against lefties. We’ve got to figure some things out. We haven’t played a game. Those are things I think about.”

Rockies

Chase Dollander reworked his mechanics this offseason to throw more strikes.

The ideas flowed when he described bad habits that crept into his motion, and the process of fixing things this offseason started with T.J. Galenti, a Tampa, Fla.,-based data scientist, certified strength and conditioning expert and baseball performance coach.

“I was a little bit more cross-body — I was pulling off everything,” Dollander said. “We figured out that I have a ton of external rotation in my hips, and that’s usually for guys that are more linear toward the plate. So I went to figure out what works. There were a bunch of different things we tried, with leg kicks, with setups, with thought processes. I think we found something that works.

“My fastball is in the zone more. My slider is in the zone more. I’m getting the ‘vert’ (induced vertical break) back on my fastball.”