Camineron, My Homeward Son

Writing about red hot chili players can be fun. When an otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts slamming the ball, that is objectively entertaining. Especially for the fantasy manager, players who are far exceeding their draft price or FAAB cost just give us a bit of extra enjoyment when they perform well. 

Junior Caminero is certainly red hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, in his first full season, which he finished as a 22-year-old, this really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Sure, the fact that he’s hit bombs in six consecutive games, and that the stretch in question started with a three-homer game, is wildly impressive. But it’s easy to forget there were some who doubted the phenom third baseman. 

Caminero played in Steinbrenner Field last season, along with his Rays teammates, while Tropicana Field was being restored.

As you can see, he had fun there. He was also extremely unlucky on the road. But the surface level numbers were enough for some would-be drafters to avoid Caminero for fear of his 2026 home park dragging down his artificially high, home park aided output from 2025. 

So far this season, it seems like maybe he just likes hitting at home. Like most hitters.

We’re still just about three months into this season, but the evidence points to Caminero simply being more comfortable at the Trop. Which happens to be where he’s hit seven of his last nine homers. All of those have come since June 23. 

Caminero is also hitting the ball harder this year, whether he’s home or away. His average is up 30 points, to .294. He looks unstoppable. 

This all begs the question – what, if anything, is Caminero doing different this year?

To start, he’s walking more. A lot more in fact, as his BB% has doubled from 6.3% last season to 13.1% this year. He’s actually swinging a lot less overall. Most of that decline has come on pitches in the zone. 

Caminero’s swing rate on pitches in the zone has fallen from 69.5% in 2025 to 60.6% this season. This includes pitches in the heart of the zone (75.6% to 64.1%) and on pitches in the shadow of the zone (56.2% to 50.5%).

His contact rates have gone up on pitches in the zone and out of the zone. And while he’s taking more strikes, he’s swinging and missing at fewer strikes, too. 

This seems to be a strategic decision, based on how he’s being pitched this season. The percentage of pitches he sees that are in the zone has fallen, from from 49% to 42.5%. So being more passive, even if that means taking some pitches in the heart of the zone, makes sense.

That selectivity has meant that when Caminero does choose to swing, it’s often very intentional. He’s mostly swinging at pitches on the inner third that he can pull and drive. 

And it’s been working. 

In my article earlier this week redrafting the first round, I noted Caminero’s growth in three metrics for home runs and to describe power. 

Since the middle of last season, Caminero has emphasized pulling the ball, and really hasn’t stopped doing so since. And last summer, he started seeing the hard hit rate gains that boosted his power output, and OPS, to the elite levels they sit at today. 

Part of those gains though, especially in OPS thanks to his increased walk rate, are explained by his newfound approach at the plate. 

The selectivity and pull-air approach are coupled with one other key improvement. 

Caminero is swinging hard an awful lot. 

His average bat speed is up from an already elite 78.5 mph and sits at 80 mph this season. His already elite fast swing rate, which is the rate of swings that are at least 75 mph, has improved from 81.1% to 89.7%, making him far and away the fastest swinger in the majors.

No other player has his average bat speed and no other player swings as hard as often. It isn’t particularly close.

So even though he’s swinging less, when he does swing, he’s typically swinging really hard at pitches he can pull in the air. 

Check out the pink, which represents his last two months, compared to the blue (last season) and yellow (March and April 2026). 

This season, Caminero is hitting more grounders than flyballs. But with his new approach, he is squaring up his flyballs more often. He has squared up 73% of his flyballs since May 1, compared to the 58% of flyballs he squared up last season. Maximizing his flyball damage while hitting more squared up line drives and grounders has helped his batting average while keeping the homers coming. 

It also suggests that, as has been the case over the last 10 days, if Caminero can hit the ball more frequently at the ideal launch angle, he has a great chance of that ball leaving the hard. Put another way, that’s his only blue Savant lollipop, for those of you with a Savant sweet tooth. 

So besides taking him in the first round, what can you do? For now, for those of us in that lucky club of managers who roster Caminero, sit back and enjoy. Maybe pick up pottery, or running, or whatever other hobby you have shelved while you pursue fantasy baseball glory. Don’t even show up to work!

Caminero’s got you covered. 

And for the rest of you? Envy is a healthy emotion in times like these. Remember how it felt to watch Caminero from the sidelines this summer. He’ll be in the Derby again this year, so you can catch a glimpse then, too. 

Bottle that all up and then, well. Take him in the first round next year. 

But in all seriousness, all prospect growth is not linear. Caminero’s certainly seems to be, and he may very well be the outlier of all outliers. Well, he and Nick Kurtz. But what he’s doing well, and specifically the changes he’s made to swing at fewer pitches, swing harder at those pitches, and target inside pitches to pull the ball with power, are things we can look for in other breakouts. Especially for those hitters who we already know have elite contact skills and power strokes, like Caminero.

I’ll leave you with a few such hitters, or at least hitters that may just have that in them this season.

I highlighted the players with the traits closest to Caminero, in an attempt to demonstrate that some players on this list (sorted by FastSw%) are actually doing fairly good impersonations. Or approximations? Impersonations?

They’re being Juniors! Mini me’s!

Jake Bauers, Miguel Vargas, JJ Bleday, and perhaps Heriberto Hernández are some of the closest in the league today, who are at least somewhat targetable in fantasy leagues.

So if any of those four are available, and if their owners are willing to sell high on names that are not particularly inspiring, consider floating an offer. You may just find yourself holding another homeward son in your arms.