Hitter Buy Low Strategy — The Unproven

With more than a quarter of the season in the books, buy low and sell high time is in full swing. Between X posts, website articles, and podcasts, everyone is dropping names of players off to cold or hot starts that are candidates to be involved in a trade to extract maximum value. Unfortunately, it’s far easier said than done, particularly if you’re in a competitive league (like one filled with FanGraphs and RotoGraphs readers, of course!). So while it’s easy to tell your readers to buy Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Shohei Ohtani, actually executing on such recommendations ain’t.

I do believe that there is a collection of player types that are potential buy lows early in every season. It’s a group composed of unproven hitters, perhaps coming off surprise seasons the previous year, or those that were hyped as breakout candidates this season, but have disappointed so far. These types don’t have a long track record of success, so it’s harder to remain patient assuming they’ll rebound to what was originally expected or hoped for.

These are the types that will be far easier to trade for. There may be a lower chance of improved performance compared to an established veteran. But hey, you’re likely getting a discount, perhaps a significant one, and if the underlying skills are (and remain) strong, such a trade could pay huge dividends.

So let’s discuss a number of hitters off to disappointing starts that don’t exactly have the track record to automatically assume a full rebound. Their inclusions here do not mean I am endorsing them as a buy low, but they fit the criteria above as players that would be easier to pry away from their owners at a discounted price to their draft day cost. Instead, I’ll dive into the numbers and conclude with my thoughts.

So the question for these guys is not whether you would be able to buy low, it’s whether you want to buy low.

Michael Busch

In his second full season last year, Busch’s home run total surged from 21 to 34, while he gained 25 RBI. He reduced his strikeout rate, and all three of his primary Statcast power metrics (HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%) spiked. His xwOBA was actually slightly higher than his wOBA, suggesting he fully deserved his output. That didn’t mean he was a lock to repeat, but at least it didn’t seem like his performance was the result of smoke and mirrors.

This year, his power has surprisingly gone MIA. His HR/FB rate has slipped to just 7.1%, while his HardHit% and maxEV have declined back to 2024 levels, and his Barrel% has dropped into single digits. However, his walk rate has jumped and strikeout rate improved again, so it hasn’t all been bad. Where did his power go? A look at his pulled FB% tells us some of the story — it has been cut in half, going from around league average last year to nearly half that. His BatSpd is also down, and shockingly well below average. It was even below average last year, which is really surprising for a power hitter.

Unfortunately, we’re starting off with a doozy. I have no idea why he isn’t pulling his flies much, and while reduced bat speed might suggest he’s been late on pitches, the drop from last year isn’t that significant. Still, he ranks 157th out of 178 in BatSpd, right behind such mashers like Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 and Justin Crawford. That, combined with a sudden inability to pull his flies, makes me think this isn’t just a slump but more going on under the hood that won’t suddenly turn around. Depending on the price, maybe I’d buy in a deep mixed or NL-Only league, but nothing shallower.

Jakob Marsee

Rising from the Marlins’ 29th best prospect with a 40 FV to trendy sleeper this draft season, Marsee was a pleasant surprise last year. He offered a power and speed blend and posted a .363 wOBA. The skills looked pretty good all around, with nothing standing out as fluky.

This year, he has upped his walk rate, reduced his SwStr% (which was already strong and far better than league average), but his strikeout rate has oddly jumped. His BABIP has plummeted, conspiring with the increased strikeout rate to crush his batting average, and his single digit HR/FB rate has been cut in half. The steals are still there and he’s been a contributor in runs scored, but it hasn’t been enough.

His xwOBA is barely higher than his wOBA, suggesting there’s no bad luck here, just bad hitting. Interestingly, his Statcast power metrics look perfectly decent, but he simply hasn’t been barreling his balls, even with a similar HardHit% and maxEV as last year. He has also become an extreme fly ball hitter, which is bizarre for a guy with a single digit HR/FB rate. No wonder his BABIP has crashed!

The increased strikeout rate, despite an improved SwStr%, is thanks to a drop in Z-Swing%, which is 10th lowest in baseball and has led to the 17th highest called-strike rate. He’s just watching strikes go by.

There’s no way to know if he’s going to start barreling balls again and up his home run total, but that’s a small part of his value anyway. It would seem him becoming a bit more aggressive in the zone should be an easy fix, though he also needs to get back to the more balanced batted ball distribution he recorded last year.

There’s a bunch to fix here for sure, but I do like the overall package and the steals gives him a floor. I would buy here in shallower leagues if you need steals, though just know the batting average may not be beneficial all season as the projections forecast.

Taylor Ward

Okay, so Ward is a veteran and far from unproven. However, he did something last year he had never done before and that probably pushed his draft day cost to a level he had never enjoyed before. He had never hit more than the 25 HR he hit in 2024, until last year’s 36. He had never recorded more than his 75 RBI in 2024 until he drove in 103 last year.

It was clear that we should expect regression, especially moving to a less home run friendly park. However, I don’t think anyone expected this kind of power regression! He’s socked just one homer for a microscopic 2.4% HR/FB rate. It’s really been a bizarre season for Ward. His walk rate has skyrocketed and he leads all of baseball with a 21.2% mark, which is really nuts for a guy with a 10.6% career mark. Also, his strikeout rate has improved to a career best, while his SwStr% has been cut in half, ranking seventh best in baseball. That is not what I expected from Ward this year.

It’s almost as if he’s trying something new after a disappointing year last season, which makes little sense considering last year wasn’t disappointing. His HardHit% is at the lowest mark of his career, while his Barrel% is sitting in the mid-single digits, down from two straight seasons of 13%+. Why would he decide to trade power for plate discipline?!

Like Busch, his pulled FB% is down, and it’s even lower than Busch’s, though it started from a lower base. Ward has never been a big pulled FB% guy, but this is the lowest it’s ever been. Also like Busch, his bat speed is down and well below league average. But Ward’s has fallen further at 1.7 MPH.

The situation is very similar to Busch, but I think I would be a bit more willing to buy Ward given that he’s not at risk of being platooned, hits in a better lineup spot, and has made considerable improvements to his walk and strikeout rates. That said, I would be hesitant in a shallow mixed league to make a move, as even a repeat of 2024 wouldn’t make him worth a whole lot above replacement level.

Vinnie Pasquantino

The Pasquantino power breakout came last year, but I actually through there was room for additional upside this season, particularly given the changes to his home park. Instead, his HR/FB rate is sitting in single digits, while a brutal BABIP has resulted in a batting average below the Mendoza Line.

His walk rate has jumped, but so has his strikeout rate, despite a stable SwStr%. That’s really surprising after looking at his plate discipline metrics, as his swing rates have remained consistent, while his CSW% is actually a couple of percentage points better than last year. That suggests that he should get that strikeout rate back into the mid-teens the rest of the way.

His BABIP is being hampered by an even more extreme FB%, which ranks 13th in baseball. That’s good for his home run count, but it’s being offset by the decline in HR/FB rate. Despite a drop in HardHit%, his Barrel% is identical to last year, so you would expect a significantly higher HR/FB rate moving forward.

Like some of the others, his bat speed is down, and this is a bit worrisome. It’s the biggest drop I’ve noted so far at 2.8 MPH, taking him from above average to below. Unlike the others with bat speed declines, his pulled FB% is actually up and at a career high. But his flyballs are being hit at the lowest Hard% of his career, so perhaps he’s pulling them, but the decline in bat speed is hurting his exit velocity, leaving the balls short of the fence.

I don’t know how easy it is to raise BatSpd throughout the year. If it weren’t for that red flag, I would absolutely conclude with a rousing buy low recommendation. But the drop in BatSpd has me at least slightly concerned. It shouldn’t really affect his BABIP though, which should rebound, but it might delay a further power breakout and also make it tough to get back on the pace that would have resulted in a 30-homer season.

Geraldo Perdomo

Perdomo might be the easiest buy low on this list. That’s because he was such a surprise fantasy breakout last year and pretty much a consensus bust candidate this year. Now that it’s happening so far, it should be easy to trade for him. The question now becomes whether you actually want to do that.

Perdomo’s breakout last year stemmed from his sudden power, as his HR/FB rate nearly doubled his previous career best, just missing double digits. His Statcast power metrics remained below average though, even if improved, so it was easy to call for regression. This year, he has held onto a lot of his HR/FB rate gains, but his FB% has plummeted, leaving him with just two homers. Whether or not those fly balls returns will tell us if he’s still a mid-teens homer guy or more like a barely double digit one.

His batting average has also fallen, as his BABIP has gone from .300+ two straight seasons to just .250. His current batted ball profile seems better for BABIP, though, so it’s a surprise to see him struggling.

Overall, last year is not happening again. Duh. But the batting average will rebound some and should provide some positive value the rest of the way. He’s still stealing bases and is on pace for over 20. He has walked more than he has struck out. He remains a very solid hitter, so in a surprise twist, I would actually recommend buying here, particularly in OBP formats.

Matt McLain

Well gosh darn, I’m sure many joked that after a blazing hot spring training that inflated his draft day cost, he would probably get off to a super slow start and get dropped. That’s exactly what happened in my local league, and now that I’m his newest owner, I’m hoping my deep dive proves positive.

The difference between McLain’s hot spring training and another player’s is that he missed all of the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, and then was a major disappointment last year, particularly with his power. That shouldn’t have been too surprising considering a healthy shoulder is crucial to power output and sometimes hitters need time to fully regain their strength after surgery.

So the strong spring convinced fantasy owners that he was finally healthy and ready to have the breakout his 2023 suggested he was capable of. Heck, I didn’t end up rostering him after the performance, but I was definitely optimistic here.

Instead of carrying over that performance, his power has disappeared even further. His HardHit% is down, and while his maxEV is at a career best, and Barrel% about the same as last year, his HR/FB rate is in the mid-single digits, which is pretty shocking. The bit of good news is that his walk rate has jumped while his strikeout rate has fallen, with both at a career bests. His xwOBA suggests some bad luck, but still, most expected better than a .313 wOBA to begin with.

His BatSpd is up from last year, a rare move for players on this list, and his pulled FB% is too! But just like Pasquantino, McLain’s Hard% on flyballs is way down, trading hard hit balls for medium ones. That won’t be enough to fly out of the park.

McLain’s poor hitting has gotten him dropped to the bottom of the order, which seems quite unfair considering TJ Friedl remains in the leadoff spot, and his 51 wRC+ is significantly worse than McLain’s mark. There would seem to be an opportunity to jump back to the top of the lineup if he goes on a hot streak. After doing a deep dive, I’m still optimistic that one will come and I would definitely be buying here given the power/speed upside.

Luke Keaschall

Last ranked as the Twins’ third best prospect and 56th best  prospect overall, Keaschall enjoyed a strong debut last year, pacing for low double digit home runs and 40+ steals. He even hit .302, so the potential seemed there for a guy who could contribute at least a little across the board.

This year, Keaschall’s below average power has become almost non-existent, as he has homered just once for a 1.9% HR/FB rate and .077 ISO. The plate discipline remains extremely strong, but his BABIP has suffered anyway thanks to a sudden inability to hit line drives and a FB% that’s way too high for a player with such limited power.

He’s still stealing bases, but obviously his pace has dropped considering the falloff in his OBP. I think most of this comes down to a weird switcharoo of his batted ball profile, as he was a line drive machine in the minors, and needs to get back to hitting liners and ground balls. I don’t know if that will happen, but it needs to for his BABIP to rebound and stolen base opportunities to rise. I would still buy here if you need steals.

Spencer Torkelson

Is Jekyll and Hyde taking over bodies? Because if so, it’s definitely Tork’s, who has alternated good and bad seasons. There’s some good and there’s some bad here. The good includes a walk rate that has spiked, and HR/FB rate, ISO, and Statcast metrics that are all in line with last year and look good. The bad includes a jump in strikeout rate to over 30% (though that looks fluky given his plate discipline metrics), leading to a .209 batting average despite a stable BABIP.

Oh, and he’s recorded just 13 runs scored and 15 RBI, which is a pace of just 55 and 64, respectively, compared to 87 and 78 last year. That’s not entirely his fault, of course, but is a reflection of getting dropped toward the bottom of the order early in the season and never getting moved back up, despite posting the third highest wRC+ on their offense and being projected for the third highest over the rest of the season (seriously, how is A.J. Hinch setting his lineup?!). It’s also a reflection of a weak offense that has scored just the 20th most runs in baseball.

The poor lineup slot is really limiting, and if Hinch hasn’t moved him back up by now, what would it actually take? Regardless of where he hits, he’s not going to contribute in batting average or steal bases. Batting seventh kills his runs scored and hampers his RBI total, plus reduces his PAs. I would consider buying in an OBP format given the increased walk rate, but that’s about it. The home runs will be fine, but he could continue disappoint in runs scored and RBI.

Jac Caglianone

One of the most anticipated arrivals last year was Caglianone, who cruised through the minors en route to a .446 wOBA, including a 30.3% HR/FB rate and .280 ISO. Unfortunately for those who speculated on him, he was a major disappointment. Not only did he hit just .157, but he surprisingly posted just a 13% HR/FB rate and .138 ISO. A lack of power wasn’t on my bingo card.

However, a .321 xwOBA and excellent Statcast metrics suggested much of the disappointing performance was actually bad luck. He then came to spring training this year and hit balls harder than he ever had in the past. I already liked him as a breakout candidate and his spring was a reminder of his power upside, despite hitting just one home run.

So far this year, his wOBA has rebounded to just above last year’s xwOBA mark. His BABIP has jumped over .300 and his HR/FB rate sits at an improved 16.7%. Yet, he’s still been seriously disappointing. That’s because his strikeout rate has spiked to over 30%, and he’s being platooned, costing him PAs. Plus, somehow, some way, he’s scored just eight runs. That means he’s scored just four times when he hasn’t scored himself on a homer! Oh, and he really needs to hit more fly balls, as a guy with this much raw power should be posting a much higher rate than a 30.8% FB%.

Like with the Tigers and Torkelson, the Royals lineup makes little sense, as Caglianone hits behind three guys with lower wRC+ marks, and he’s projected to be tied as their second best hitter. So why is he hitting sixth or seventh?! Such bonehead lineup decisions will cost him PAs and cap his runs scored and RBI opportunities. That’s in addition to sitting against lefties mentioned above, which also makes little sense.

Man, there’s so much to like here, and yet so much holding him back that’s mostly beyond his control that gives me pause. His Statcast power metrics are elite and he has pulled his flies at a league average rate. I don’t see why his HR/FB rate couldn’t jump to 20%+. But it won’t matter a whole lot near the bottom of the league’s 22nd highest run scoring team. Seriously, I’m dying for a reason to buy him, but in shallow mixed leagues, I just cannot bring myself to. I don’t think he’s going to be as disappointing versus the pre-season projections, but I thought those were too low to begin with, so he’ll be a disappointment to inflated expectations, particularly for a former elite prospect.

Roman Anthony

We’re closing with the big ones, eh?! Anthony was quite impressive in real baseball during his debut last year, as opposed to fantasy baseball, but the skills suggested some massive upside that got me excited (though I failed to roster him anywhere, which I guess was a blessing in disguise so far). While he’s on the IL right now, he had been a big fantasy bust, combining for just three home runs and steals over his first 130 PAs. Oh, and he hit just .229.

His power disappeared, as his HR/FB rate fell to just 5%, despite strong Statcast metrics across the board. Naturally, like many of the others above, his pulled FB% is way down, nearly cut in half to well below average. However, his BatSpd is actually up slightly from last year and remains strong. Why did he stop pulling his flies then? Besides the drop in pulled FB%, his FB% itself is down below 30%, which is not a level you want to see for a power hitter. It’s great for his BABIP, though, but even with a surge in LD% and zero pop-ups, that mark had nowhere to go but down after a .404 mark last year. Still, the batted ball profile is pristine for BABIP and should result in a higher mark than .320, especially with Fenway Park inflating hits.

Anthony’s xwOBA stands well above his actual mark, suggesting that there’s been some bad fortune going on here. Unfortunately, he’s on the IL with a wrist injury and it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll return and whether the injury will hamper his performance. If we assume he’s healthy when he does return, I still gush over this skill set. It’s rare you see this kind of package from a 22-year-old and it’s almost certainly going to lead to stardom.

I would be buying here, especially in an OBP format. He’s actually in a perfect situation for an acquisition, as it’s a slow start combined with an IL stint. He might not come cheaper for a long, long time, so go get him in keeper leagues.