Starting Pitcher wOBA Regressors — Mid-May 2019
Last Thursday, I identified nine starting pitchers whose Statcast xwOBA marks were significantly better than their actual wOBA marks, suggesting improved results over the rest of the season. Today, let’s discuss the guys who have been the most fortunate according to xwOBA.
| Name | K% | BB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | wOBA | xwOBA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 26.0% | 7.5% | 0.225 | 75.5% | 7.7% | 2.50 | 0.236 | 0.297 | -0.061 |
| Andrew Cashner | 19.3% | 8.7% | 0.270 | 75.8% | 15.1% | 4.10 | 0.312 | 0.372 | -0.060 |
| Shane Bieber | 26.5% | 6.4% | 0.248 | 78.6% | 17.5% | 3.81 | 0.302 | 0.358 | -0.056 |
| Jon Lester | 23.2% | 5.0% | 0.325 | 84.7% | 9.3% | 2.09 | 0.299 | 0.348 | -0.049 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 24.1% | 8.9% | 0.244 | 79.7% | 6.7% | 2.63 | 0.255 | 0.300 | -0.045 |
| Justin Verlander | 31.1% | 6.5% | 0.171 | 96.0% | 16.4% | 2.38 | 0.248 | 0.291 | -0.043 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 19.9% | 4.4% | 0.298 | 67.4% | 8.5% | 2.86 | 0.279 | 0.320 | -0.041 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 28.6% | 1.6% | 0.230 | 94.6% | 16.7% | 1.72 | 0.226 | 0.266 | -0.040 |
| Patrick Corbin | 29.2% | 7.6% | 0.262 | 78.8% | 10.7% | 2.91 | 0.265 | 0.305 | -0.040 |
BOOOOOO, I was a big fan of Domingo German heading into the year and he’s delivered even more than I had hoped for. But this breakout hasn’t been all real. An xwOBA of just below .300 is still fantastic, of course, but that .225 BABIP and 7.7% HR/FB rate ain’t going to stay that low and xwOBA confirms it. In redraft leagues, he’s not a bad guy to dangle and see what kind of offense you can get in return, if you’re in need of offense. For keeper league owners, it’s a bit tougher as you likely own him for cheap. That’s the predicament I’m in since I own him in an AL-Only league.
Andrew Cashner is teasing us. Over his last five games, he’s posted strong, un-Cashnerlike skills with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate for a 3.50 SIERA. He has upped the usage of his changeup, which has generated an elite 19.8% SwStk%, so at least there’s some potential explanation for the skills surge. Of course, his changeup has never been this good before, so did he really suddenly figure something out at age 32? In those five games, his xwOBA sits at .331, so that’s far better than his .372 season mark. Of course, his actual wOBA during that time was .277, so no matter how you slice it, he’s benefited from some excellent fortune. I’m still not touching him in any league.
I’m guessing Shane Bieber’s xwOBA plummeted after yesterday’s gem! Frankly, I’m pretty shocked it was that high heading into the game. Perhaps this is that so-called “hittability” those who were bearish on him during draft season labeled him as being.
Jon Lester seems like the ultimate sell high. He has outperformed his xwOBA, his velocity is down again, and his SwStk% sits at a career low (well, the lowest since his 2006 debut). All this while his ERA sits just above 2.00. Pretty amazing he has maintained a near 2.00 ERA given that inflated .325 BABIP.
It’s tempting to buy into Jake Odorizzi given the strikeout rate spike and career high SwStk%. But remember, he has always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, and that 6.7% HR/FB rate is at risk of sky rocketing. We know the .244 BABIP is headed upwards. That said, a .300 xwOBA is pretty surprising given his line drive rate is well above the league average. I’d be nervous to roster him.
Do the top tier pitchers like Justin Verlander routinely outperform their xwOBA marks? I have no idea. Obviously, he’s not going to maintain a .171 BABIP or 96% LOB% for much longer.
While Kyle Hendricks has typically outperformed his SIERA marks, that hasn’t been the case with his xwOBA marks. He has generally been pretty close, but he is now outperforming far more than he has ever in the past. He just keeps chugging along though, recording excellent results with underwhelming skills. I’m an owner, but I get nervous every start of his.
Obviously Hyun-Jin Ryu has been lucky, but damn, even his xwOBA is just .266! That’s seventh best in baseball among starting pitchers. Obviously, he won’t continue to walk 1.6% of opposing battrs, nor strand nearly 95% of baserunners.
After a big rebound season for Patrick Corbin last year, he is proving that it was no fluke. Even though his SwStk% is down, his fastball velocity has rebounded a bit and his strikeout rate has only marginally declined. xwOBA agrees he’s been pretty good, but not this good.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Who gets less respect: Kyle Hendricks or Rodney Dangerfield?
As someone who has rostered Hendricks 3 of the last 4 years, I totally get the discomfort with him. He doesn’t strike out many guys and keeps losing velo. There is nobody in the majors who succeeds at 87 mph. . . .except Hendricks. But clearly the various ERA estimators just don’t capture everything because he keeps doing it year after year after year. His lack of Ks is always going to limit his upside but he seems like a lock to again this year post an ERA in the low to mid 3s with a WHIP just under 1.20 and 12-17 wins depending on how the luck genie treats him.
Agreed on almost everything you said, but his velocity has actually been ticking up. He’s been sitting around 88 these last few starts – something he hasn’t done since 2016.
I did notice that and his velo is up from 2017 which is good, but it’s still down from 2015-2016 and it’s still under 87 and, well, it’s still 88 at his best. I think the velo is ultimately going to be his downfall. Jered Weaver proved that once you start dipping into the mid 80’s it’s tough to keep succeeding.